Week 14 NFL MVP Odds: Jalen Hurts vs. Brock Purdy vs. Dak Prescott

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
week 14 nfl mvp odds

Week 13 of the NFL season consolidated odds in the MVP race. With Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy putting up big weeks and Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes stumbling in losses, the Week 14 NFL MVP odds have been upended. Purdy has jumped up the odds board, but with Philly heading into Dallas, that status could be changed again soon.

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Jalen Hurts () vs. Dak Prescott ()

As someone who was invested in the 49ers beating the Eagles last week, that result wasn’t a shock. Nor was the price change on Hurts, who has gone from cruise control to back to the pack on the Week 14 NFL MVP odds board. The question is whether or not it’s an overreaction and whether Dak Prescott is a worthwhile bet.

Dak was incredible last week, putting up 299 yards and three TDs on Thursday night. More impressively, he was fifth in Dropback EPA against the Seahawks. The problem for Dak is that even if the Cowboys win this game, they don’t control their destiny for the NFC East title. And it will be nigh impossible to win the MVP from the 5-seed.

Hurts, on the other hand, is a buy-low spot if you think the Eagles win this game. Personally, as a Philly skeptic, I’ve bet the Cowboys. If Hurts wins this, he will win the MVP. After Dallas, the Eagles have four games against teams with losing records, including two against the Giants. If they win this, they should be able to cruise to 15-2 and the 1-seed, in which case the NFL MVP odds discussion is over. But if the Cowboys win? Then it’s time to enter this week’s riser, Brock Purdy.

Eagles Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.

Cowboys Upcoming Schedule

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Brock Purdy SZN ()?

Purdy is the rising star of the MVP race on the back of a spectacular Week 13 performance. Second in Dropback EPA, 314 yards and four TDs en route to destroying the Eagles in Philly. That is a performance that wins players MVPs. The Niners also control their destiny to the 1-seed, if the Eagles lose one more game. San Fran would own head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Eagles and Cowboys.

In a sense, Purdy’s status as the favorite in some Week 14 NFL MVP odds markets makes complete sense. In another, it makes none. 

The MVP is a voted-on award, and as the College Football Playoff selection committee showed, merit does not always apply to human votes. And Purdy, whatever his true talent, is not going to get the credit for the Niners being 14-3 in the same way Dak would. The 49ers’ defense and coaching edge work against Purdy. The fact that the Niners made a Super Bowl and another NFC title game with Jimmy G adds fuel to the haters’ belief that even remote competence is all it takes to succeed in a Shanahan system.

Whether that’s fair or not to Purdy is irrelevant to the fact that that is how some people think of him. It’s also worth pointing out that three of his TD passes went for a combined eight air yards on Sunday, while they accounted for 112 yards after the catch. That Deebo Samuel can make great plays in space hurts Purdy’s case, as does the general existence of Christian McCaffrey.

49ers Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.

AFC Opening?

Given the losses of Kansas City and Jacksonville in primetime last week, the 1-seed in the AFC is significantly more open than it looked to be last week. Trevor Lawrence’s injury status is still unclear, but instead of the four-way tie atop the AFC oddsmakers expected after Week 13, Baltimore and Miami have a leg up. The problem for both Tua and Lamar is that their schedules are remarkably difficult.

As much as both QBs have better chances now that the 1-seed in the AFC is more attainable, they’re already both on three-loss teams. Given these two teams play, one of them will, at minimum, be a four-loss team. Miami has to play Buffalo and Dallas in addition to the Ravens, which hurts Tua’s chances significantly.

If Trevor Lawrence’s injury is going to keep him out for an extended period, then the Ravens would gain a lot of win expectancy in that matchup. The Niners will be favored against Baltimore when they play, which hurts Lamar’s chances of going 14-3. Given that’s what the NFC is likely to produce, both Lamar and Tua are likely on the outside looking in.

Dolphins Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.

Ravens Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.
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Strategy

If you think Philly wins this week, bet Hurts now.

If you think Dallas takes care of business at home, like I do, wait till Monday morning.

Fundamentally, there are too many concerns about whether Purdy will get the credit for San Fran’s brilliance for me to think he actually wins, and in that case, I’ll wait for Dallas to beat Hurts, crash his price even further, and then bank on Hurts’ gaudy TD numbers and Philly’s ability to win 14 games to cash a ticket.

Best of luck betting Week 14 NFL MVP odds.

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