Week 14 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs, like the Eagles, will be an enticing option among NFL Week 14 odds. Then again, determining the most valuable ones across NFL betting sites is a tricky task. That’s why TheLines is here to help. Here are three plus-money teams to monitor if you typically use some pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This three-team parlay isn’t a wager of mine. You can find those NFL best bets later in the week.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The odds listed below are the best available in your state.

Detroit Lions at Chicago bears

During Week 13, the Lions’ odds cashed at New Orleans, tying them for the third-most profitable against-the-spread (ATS) record across the NFL. However, Detroit’s pass defense continues to get carved up, allowing the third-highest dropback success rate. For context, a play is deemed successful if it tallies at least 50% of the requisite yards on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down.

Bears quarterback Justin Fields already proved he could take advantage in Week 11, notching the 11th-highest EPA per dropback among qualified signal callers. Moreover, Fields’ counterpart Jared Goff will face Chicago’s improved defense and poor weather conditions — his biggest kryptonite. Not only is snow and rain in the forecast, but 21 mph wind is also expected.

The best Bears odds to win outright are currently .

Lions logo Lions DET
Bears logo Bears CHI
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 4th 28th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 32nd 29th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 380 307.9
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 392.4 375.9
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 251.8 130.5
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 0.9 1.5

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati was initially set at plus-money to emerge victorious, but the best Bengals odds in that regard are after upsetting the Jaguars on Monday night. Although the value in this market has diminished slightly, the Colts continue to survive by the skin of their teeth, making the home underdog an intriguing wager.

Indianapolis has five one-possession wins, including two in overtime. That’s depicted in its slim point differential (+4). Granted, the Colts run defense will see a boost with nose tackle Grover Stewart back from his PED suspension. Nevertheless, Cincinnati’s offensive line still grades above league average on the ground, and Jake Browning‘s heroics against Jacksonville should keep Indy from loading the box on an every-down basis.

  • Editor’s Note: The Bengals reopened as underdogs earlier in the week.
Colts logo Colts IND
Bengals logo Bengals CIN
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 27th 7th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 15th 16th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 311.6 360.5
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 334 335.7
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 201.9 265
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 2 1.1

buffalo bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Even though two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes has accrued the fifth-most total EPA among qualified QBs, the Chiefs’ passing attack isn’t nearly as explosive as it once was. For reference, rookie wideout Rashee Rice tallied an average depth of target (aDOT) of 1.0 yards against the Packers in Week 13. Hence, the market moving against Kansas City, which was initially a field-goal favorite, isn’t surprising.

Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off the bye week, potentially needing to win out to sneak into the playoffs. The Chiefs’ pass rush is their biggest strength defensively, but Buffalo boasts the ninth-best pass-block win rate. Expect a big effort from Josh Allen in efforts to cash the Bills’ odds on the moneyline. The best price available is .

Bills logo Bills BUF
Chiefs logo Chiefs KC
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 2nd 1st
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 6th 11th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 397.6 413.6
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 319.1 328.2
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 258.1 297.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.7 1.4

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