Eli’s NFL Week 12 Best Bets, Same-Game Parlay Picks: Will Titans Upset Texans?
As the odds for NFL Week 12 near kickoff, let’s handicap point spreads and totals while searching for the best NFL promos across the betting industry. The Steelers at Browns and Titans at Texans pique my interest — juxtaposed with my model and projections. I’ll add other NFL bets once they’re in my sportsbook account.
Below are the best odds in your state. You can also explore the best sportsbook promos from the best sports betting sites.
potential NFL TNF bets: browns to lose by three points or less or win
Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you will find in our free sports betting Discord. This football season has been my toughest, going 22-25-3 (-2.18 units). I’ve had a profitable run during the last two years at TheLines.com, finishing 101-65-2 (+33.06 units).
Whether you tail my NFL bets or find this article helpful when analyzing the market, hopefully, you recognize the importance of bankroll management amid bumpy stretches and avoid the urge to chase your losses.
Without further ado, let’s begin.
How Will Steelers Respond?
Pittsburgh is coming off an emotional win over arch-rival Baltimore to claim first place in the AFC North. Russell Wilson and Co. delivered a 32% offensive success rate, the third-lowest across the NFL. They are also on a short prep week, with the NFL weather report forecasting heavy rain and wind gusts near 20 mph.
Generally, I’d quantify this matchup as a buy-low, sell-high opportunity, especially against another division foe. For bettors unfamiliar with situational spots, they attempt to uncover conditions in which teams have surpassed or underperformed their normal level of play relative to the NFL odds board.
Although Cleveland exceeded the market’s expectations in a similar home spot against the Ravens in Week 8, it was the first matchup with Jameis Winston starting after Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Winston faces a more prolific pass rush this time, no longer catching above the key number of a touchdown.
Moreover, I’m unconvinced that the Browns’ banged-up defense will contain the Steelers’ zone rushing attack. Jim Schwartz’s unit struggled against the Saints’ similarly constructed ground game in Week 11, and poor conditions should lead to plenty of work for Najee Harris. Both are reasons why I’m eyeing Harris’ odds for an anytime touchdown on Thursday Night Football.
Unless the market reverses course after Nick Chubb and the Browns were bet down from the opening spread of +4.5, I’ll pass on these TNF odds for my NFL bets. If you’re looking for a same-game parlay bet, check out my NFL SGP picks column.
TNF Injury Report
| Player | Pos Position | Injury | Status | Snaps/g Snaps Per Game | Comment | ||||||
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Cleveland Browns | ||||||||||
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Pittsburgh Steelers | ||||||||||
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Watch: BetMGM Trader on Steelers at browns odds
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NFL bets: titans to lose by eight points or less or win
Digging Up A Corpse
If wagering on the Browns sounds immoral, just wait. Tennessee is 2-8 straight up and 1-9 against the spread (10%), the NFL’s worst cover rate. However, I perceive this as the bottom of its market value, making it a buy point.
Like the Seahawks at the 49ers matchup last week, home-field advantage is less significant regarding the spread in divisional games. Couple that with the market over-adjusting for the Titans’ poor play, and my model has this line closer to -7.
The final score was deceiving in Tennessee’s Week 11 defeat to Minnesota. Despite failing to cover (+6), the Titans outgained the Vikings in yards per play. To boot, the oft-maligned Will Levis notched the third-highest EPA per dropback against the blitz.
Houston has accumulated the seventh-highest pressure rate, so his refinement is a major plus. The same can’t be said for his counterpart, C.J. Stroud, who ranks below the league average. While Nico Collins’ reinsertion should boost Stroud’s efficiency, the speed at which the Texans will ramp up his workload is unknown. Collins tallied a 47% snap rate versus Dallas on Monday night, corralling 4-of-7 targets for 54 yards.
The Titans boast a top-10 pass-rush win rate and stuff rate. If Jeffery Simmons and the remainder of their defensive front win the battle against a bottom-five offensive line, Tennessee should hang within a touchdown on a short week for Houston.
Good luck with your NFL Week 12 bets!
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