If a bettor wagered $100 on every underdog this season (85-61-1 against the spread), that’d be equivalent to a $1,635 profit. So which Week 11 NFL underdogs are most intriguing? Let’s break them down — with a pair of betting markets in mind.
Week 11 NFL Underdogs: Spread And Teaser Value
- NFL Power Ratings: Which Teams Has Betting Market Upgraded And Downgraded Most?
New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons
This matchup represents a classic buy-low, sell-high spot. The Falcons are coming off a blowout loss to the Cowboys while the Patriots are riding high after thrashing the Browns for their fourth straight cover. The spread is up three points from the look-ahead line as a result.
Not only is a New England letdown possible, but Arthur Smith’s team could also have success establishing its ground game. During the Pats’ winning streak, their defense ranks No. 18 in expected points added (EPA) per carry. Cordarrelle Patterson’s status (ankle) is key in that regard, and I’m hoping we can grab the home underdog above a key number as well.
- EPA is calculated by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the play’s conclusion.
Week 11 NFL Underdogs Angle: Falcons +7.5 or better
Best Available Line: Falcons
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Similar to the Patriots, the 49ers could be in position to struggle on a short week after dominating the Rams on Monday night. But I’m in agreement with the market on San Francisco, and I even see some value in Kyle Shanahan’s team going on a run and winning the NFC title ().
Week 11 NFL Underdogs Angle: Pass, but consider the 49ers as a teaser leg
Best Available Line: 49ers
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Although the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray (ankle) could return for this contest, the market flipping from the look-ahead line of Seahawks -1 to +2 is an overreaction. Expect Russell Wilson to bounce back after Seattle was shutout against Green Bay in Week 10.
Week 11 NFL Underdogs Angle: Consider Seahawks as a teaser leg
Best Available Line: Seahawks