Week 11 NFL Underdogs: Which Teams Is The Betting Market Devaluing Too Much?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 21, 2021
Week 11 NFL Underdogs

If a bettor wagered $100 on every underdog this season (85-61-1 against the spread), that’d be equivalent to a $1,635 profit. So which Week 11 NFL underdogs are most intriguing? Let’s break them down — with a pair of betting markets in mind.

Week 11 NFL Underdogs: Spread And Teaser Value

New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons

This matchup represents a classic buy-low, sell-high spot. The Falcons are coming off a blowout loss to the Cowboys while the Patriots are riding high after thrashing the Browns for their fourth straight cover. The spread is up three points from the look-ahead line as a result.

Not only is a New England letdown possible, but Arthur Smith’s team could also have success establishing its ground game. During the Pats’ winning streak, their defense ranks No. 18 in expected points added (EPA) per carry. Cordarrelle Patterson’s status (ankle) is key in that regard, and I’m hoping we can grab the home underdog above a key number as well.

  • EPA is calculated by expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the play’s conclusion.

Week 11 NFL Underdogs Angle: Falcons +7.5 or better
Best Available Line: Falcons

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Just how overvalued are the Titans in the betting market? Here’s the first of two Week 11 NFL underdogs that are included in my best bets column.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Similar to the Patriots, the 49ers could be in position to struggle on a short week after dominating the Rams on Monday night. But I’m in agreement with the market on San Francisco, and I even see some value in Kyle Shanahan’s team going on a run and winning the NFC title ().

Week 11 NFL Underdogs Angle: Pass, but consider the 49ers as a teaser leg
Best Available Line: 49ers

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

I dissected this matchup more in-depth in my aforementioned article, but the Packers’ rushing defense is set up to be exposed by the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Although the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray (ankle) could return for this contest, the market flipping from the look-ahead line of Seahawks -1 to +2 is an overreaction. Expect Russell Wilson to bounce back after Seattle was shutout against Green Bay in Week 10.

Week 11 NFL Underdogs Angle: Consider Seahawks as a teaser leg
Best Available Line: Seahawks

Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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