Week 11 College Football Best Bets: Oklahoma Vs. Baylor, Ohio State Vs. Purdue

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 12, 2021
Week 11 College Football Best Bets

With just three weeks left in the regular, we’re blessed with a combo of top-25 matchups, including No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 13 Baylor and No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 19 Purdue. I’ve dissected my betting strategy for games matchups in my Week 11 college football best bets.

You’ll also find the betting perspective of Motoi Pearson, WynnBET Sportsbook’s senior trader. Be sure to access WynnBET’s exclusive first-time offers here. You can click on the spreads mentioned below to bet now.

Week 11 College Football Best Bets

Oklahoma at Baylor

As of Wednesday at PointsBet Sportsbook, 65% of the spread tickets are on Oklahoma while 56% of the handle is on Baylor. The line initially opened at Sooners -6.5.

The betting public is also fixated on Oklahoma freshman quarterback Caleb Williams, whose Heisman odds have dipped from +4000 to since he took over for Spencer Rattler.

With Williams leading the way, the Sooners boast the fifth-highest passing success rate (SR) in college football. The Bears’ defense is most susceptible in that department, which should allow for Williams to pick apart their secondary at will.

  • SR showcases whether a play is successful if a team gains:
    • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
    • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
    • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Their scoring efficiency is elite as well, accruing the second-highest net points per drive. But Dave Aranda’s defense has held up in that regard — with a top-50 ranking in that metric. Oklahoma has cashed in with red zone touchdowns often (77.0%), but Baylor could be a stiff test in that regard.

Nevertheless, can the Bears keep pace in order to stay within one possession or win outright? They sit No. 19 in overall offensive SR, as QB Gerry Bohanon plays off one of the most explosive ground games in the country. The Sooners have been gashed by opponents’ aerial attacks, and I’m not anticipating defensive coordinator Alex Grinch solving that issue this week.

With the spread below a touchdown, there isn’t much pregame value with the home underdog. If the line creeps above that in-game, I’d jump on the Bears.

Behind The Counter

“The Sooners finally got their bye week, and we opened them at -5,” Pearson said. “Baylor took its medicine against TCU last week, and we don’t see it getting much easier against OU. We’ve seen some respected action that got us up to -6, and I see it closing north of that.”

Eli’s Potential Week 11 College Football Best Bets: Baylor live +10.5 or better
Best Available Line: Baylor

Purdue at Ohio State

Over at PointsBet, both the spread ticket count (78%) and spread handle (56%) are favoring the road underdog.

These percentages make sense — given perception of both teams. The betting public is taking into account their most recent contests, as Purdue handled then-No. 3 Michigan State while Ohio State hung on against lowly Nebraska.

Ryan Day’s team could have a bounce-back performance in store, but there are two significant issues. As dominant as Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud has appeared at times, he’s proven to be extremely erratic too. Stroud faces a Boilermakers defense that ranks No. 11 in overall SR.

Still, Jeff Brohm’s unit needs his offense to pull its own weight. That was evident in Purdue’s 30-13 home loss to Wisconsin, in which the Boilermakers faced a negative game script throughout. Well, Purdue signal caller Aiden O’Connell and star wideout David Bell should be able to exploit an OSU defense placing No. 72 in opponents’ passing SR. Unlike Stroud, O’Connell represents one of college football’s most efficient QBs.

Moreover, Purdue tight end Payne Durham (undisclosed injury) saw a minimal number of snaps and zero targets against MSU. He’s expected to suit up and could see more time on the field in this matchup.

A trio possessions is too much for the Boilermakers — despite the situational spot.

Behind The Counter

“We opened at a bit shorter than the market with Ohio State -20,” Pearson said. “Our numbers balanced between OSU -18.5 and -20.5. There hasn’t been much action on the side, but we feel like the public will come dumping on Ohio State (as the week rolls along).”

Eli’s Week 11 College Football Best Bets: Purdue +21 (-110 at PointsBet — placed 11 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 10)
Best Available Line: Purdue

Pearson’s Week 11 College Football Best Bets: Utah St. at SJSU

“The Aggies have had an incredible turnaround, and it’s hard to say no as an underdog,” Pearson said. “This spread should be closer to a pick’em. I’m OK with catching the Spartans off their heart-breaking loss (at Nevada).”

Mo’s Week 11 College Football Best Bets: Utah State +4.5
Best Available Line: Utah State

Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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