After underdogs went 10-4 against the spread last time around, how should bettors approach Week 10 NFL underdogs? Below you’ll find a breakdown of every game and whether there’s value in the line. Let’s dig in.
Week 10 NFL Underdogs: Spread And Teaser Value
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Whether Tua Tagovailoa (finger) starts or not, the Ravens’ blitz-happy defense should be all over one of the league’s worst offensive lines. The market likely comes in on the Dolphins a little if Tagovailoa suits up, so be sure to monitor his status.
Conclusion: Pass, but consider Baltimore teaser leg
Best Available Line: Ravens
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Conclusion:Pass, but consider a Cowboys teaser leg
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
With the Titans riding high on a four-game winning streak, covering each one in the process, there’s no surprise in the market’s stance. I expect a letdown, especially since the Saints can exploit Tennessee’s 29th-ranked defensive rushing success rate (SR).
If this number doesn’t reach a flat field goal (-110), consider putting New Orleans in a teaser.
- SR showcases whether a play is successful if a team gains:
- 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
- 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
- 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down
Potential Underdog Angle: Saints +3/teaser leg
Best Available Line: Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Here’s one of the Week 10 NFL underdogs I hit on in my best bets column.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Betting against the Bills after a loss — even against soon-to-be Hall of Famer Mike White? No thanks.
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s team is as low as an eight-point favorite after it nearly blew a double-digit deficit on Monday night.
The Steelers’ defense struggles most against the run, which could lead to the Lions grinding clock with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Detroit is also coming off a bye while Pittsburgh will be on a short week, but I’d rather have two possessions to work with.
Potential Underdog Angle: Lions live bet (+10.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team
With both teams coming off a bye week, there’s no edge here, especially with Buccaneers wide receivers Antonio Brown (ankle) reportedly still weeks away from returning and Chris Godwin (foot) uncertain for Sunday. With the spread below a key number, I don’t see enough value.
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Here’s another one of the Week 10 NFL underdogs that’s in my best bets piece.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
In a shocking development, the Chargers still sit dead-last in opponents’ rushing SR. As long as Mike Zimmer is willing to establish Dalvin Cook early and often, the Vikings represent a tasty teaser leg. But keep an eye on Cook’s developing legal situation.
Potential Underdog Angle: Vikings teaser leg (+8.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos
How much should we be discussing the Chargers’ banged-up secondary in relation to the Eagles’ latest offensive performance? Regardless, the market is inflating this number after the Broncos’ upset win in Dallas. I’ll need a little more to make this bet pregame.
Potential Underdog Angle: Eagles +3.5 or better
Best Available Line: Eagles
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
After the spread opened at Packers -5.5, we’ve seen considerable line movement after the Seahawks announced that Russell Wilson is returning. At this point, I’d rather tease Pete Carroll’s up above a possession.
Potential Underdog Angle: Seahawks teaser leg (+9.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs rank No. 23 in expected points added (EPA) per play over their last five games, and there’s value with the Raiders at a key number as a result. Las Vegas’ revamped defense has been much improved under Gus Bradley, allowing the 12th-lowest dropback SR.
Expect The Raiders to continue to hold Patrick Mahomes & Co. in check.
Potential Underdog Angle: Raiders +3 (-115 — placed at 8pm ET Sunday, Nov. 14 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Best Available Line: Raiders
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Although the 49ers cost us against the Cardinals again, I’m anticipating a more inspired effort against a below-average Rams rushing defense. San Francisco should keep this game within two possessions.
Potential Underdog Angle: 49ers teaser leg (+10 or better)
Best Available Line: 49ers