2025 PGA Tour Golf Bets: WM Phoenix Open Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD
PGA Tour golf continues, with TPC Scottsdale next on tap to host the 2025 WM Phoenix Open this Thursday. This week, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama are the favorites among WM Phoenix Open bets. John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA Tour picks among all the golf odds offered this week. Below, you’ll find the best odds at legal sports betting sites.
One of the most incredible weekends of the entire sports calendar year is just about upon us. We get set for the WM Phoenix Open to kick off the festivities at TPC Scottsdale this Thursday. With the most electric crowd atmosphere on the PGA Tour schedule, this event is like no other and never fails to deliver fireworks.
Historically, this event has been kind to elite ball strikers with proven performance on high-octane stages and has opened the door for lesser putters to putt to field average. Still, anything can happen on this unique stage. Just last year, we saw two longshots beyond 100-1 pre-tournament odds duke it out in a playoff.
Below, we’ll go through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open.
Click on any WM Phoenix Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.
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HOW I BUILT MY WM Phoenix Open BETTING CARD
I deliberated for a couple of days on whether to concede to the world No. 1 and bet in the “Without Scheffler” markets. If a “Without Scheffler or Thomas” market existed, I likely would have placed all my outrights there. But it’s no fun betting in fear of the best player in the world. And he looked human enough in his return from the hand injury last week that I can convince myself the other mortals in this field stand a fighting chance.
Regarding my exposure this week, it’s back to business as usual for my 2025 WM Phoenix Open betting card. I may look to place a few extra cross-over Super Bowl props as well as we get closer to Super Bowl weekend.
- Outrights — 3.5U in to pay 25U each
- FRL — 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Full tournament matchups — 1U in to pay out 2U
- Props — 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each
WM PHOENIX Open Bets: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)
For PGA Tour DFS picks and longshot bet considerations, check out my golf sleepers for the WM Phoenix Open.
Justin Thomas
My bet: +1400
Best available odds: Justin Thomas +100000 on FanDuel
Recently, Justin Thomas has developed an unfair reputation as someone who may have “forgotten” how to win. A three-year winless drought still does not erase the fact he’s picked up two majors and 15 PGA Tour wins since 2016. So, I’m chalking up the extended winless stretch to just pure misfortune. Thomas has played well enough to win the ZOZO Championship, Hero World Challenge, and the American Express over his last five starts. You can’t fault him for not playing “defense” against the players who brought their A+ games on Sunday.
It is not a matter of if, but when Justin Thomas will get his next win this season, and I can think of no better stage than a depleted WM Phoenix Open field for JT to get over the hump. He’s proven time and time again at the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup that he can feed off the crowd energy to raise his game regardless of form. The form, however, is as good as can be, with three top-three finishes over his last five starts. He’ll set up well to keep that momentum going as he’s placed no worse than T13 in his last six trips to TPC Scottsdale.
Kurt Kitayama
My bet: +6500
Best available odds: Kurt Kitayama +100000 on FanDuel
In the simplest terms, elite ball strikers consistently separate themselves from the field at the WM Phoenix Open. Its length and many lateral hazards coupled with relatively straightforward greens complexes tip the scales entirely in favor of the best drivers and approach players. Over the last 36 rounds, Kurt Kitayama joins Scottie Scheffler as the only two players in this field to rank top-10 in terms of both SG: OTT and SG: APP.
Kitayama has demonstrated that fit with finishes of T23 and T8 in his first two trips to TPC Scottsdale. A proven winner in demanding conditions since taking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Kitayama will return to Phoenix in better form than ever before with three top-10 finishes over his last eight starts.
Cameron Young
My bet: +7000
Best available odds: Cameron Young +100000 on FanDuel
I’m drawn to Cameron Young for the same reasons I and many others across the industry are high on Kitayama this week. Despite his ups and downs this season, Young remains one of the premier drivers on the PGA Tour. TPC Scottsdale is a venue built to reward that skillset especially with its long par 5s, drivable par 4s, and stark penalty for wayward tee shots. His approach play needs to improve, but I feel we’re getting enough of a discount at these odds to take a chance on him regressing to the mean in that department this week. He’s already proven to suit the course well with a T8 at this event last year.
Si Woo Kim
My bet: +7000
Best available odds: Si Woo Kim +100000 on FanDuel
Kim has demonstrated a real flair for the dramatic, establishing himself as the heart and soul of the international Presidents Cup team over the last several years and notching a victory at The Players to launch his career. Success in match play and at TPC Sawgrass are two very linear trends as signals of better results to come on the high octane stage of the WM Phoenix Open, and Kim is just beginning to pay those trends off. He’s finished T23 and T12 in his last two trips to TPC Scottsdale and looks to be rounding into form with a 12th-place finish at last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
J.J. Spaun
My bet: +7500
Best available odds: J.J. Spaun +100000 on FanDuel
My model loves J.J. Spaun this week, rating out No. 15 overall with top-15 ranks in the key categories of SG: TOT, SG: T2G, and SG: APP over the last 36 rounds. Spaun has jumped out of the gates hot this 2025 season with top-35 finishes in each of his first four starts. The 2022 Valero Texas Open champion knows how to get himself in the mix, as he’s posted five top-10 finishes over his last 20 starts. He may not fit the usual trend of players who rise in the highest pressure moments, but that hasn’t stopped him from contending here before, with a career-best T4 finish here in 2017.
Billy Horschel
My bet: +9000
Best available odds: Billy Horschel +100000 on FanDuel
My featured spotlight player of the week, Horschel’s stock has steadily been on the rise since firing a closing round 66 to finish T9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. Horschel is always capable of winning an event with his putter alone, especially on Bermuda greens like these. But it’s been encouraging to see how well his ball-striking has trended in 2025. With wins at the Tour Championship and the Memorial on his resume, the stage is not too big for Horschel. He’s missed just one cut here over 12 career appearances, with three finishes of T11-or-better over that span.
wm phoenix OPEN Bets: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)
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Si Woo Kim
My bet: +6000
Best available odds: Si Woo Kim +100000 on DraftKings
The risk-reward specialist himself, this is a fantastic number in the FRL market for a player of Si Woo Kim’s caliber. We know he’s going to come out firing at pins. And the putter is just starting to percolate, having gained on the greens in four of his last six events.
J.J. Spaun
My bet: +6000
Best available odds: J.J. Spaun +6000 on BetMGM
A trusted birdie-maker in easier conditions, Spaun’s elite iron play should help generate ample scoring opportunities at TPC Scottsdale. His ability to keep the ball in the fairway on repeat should also help him keep a clean card on Thursday.
Cameron Young
My bet: +6600
Best available odds: Cameron Young +100000 on DraftKings
It’s hard to feel overly confident in Cameron Young’s outright prospects knowing he is one bad hole away from unraveling seemingly every tournament. With that said, I do love this course fit for Young’s game. He’s already had success on this course with a T8 finish this time last year, so he has all the tools he needs to get out to a hot start.
Charley Hoffman
My bet: +8000
Best available odds: Charley Hoffman +5000 on BetMGM
The 2024 runner-up has a chance to follow the Nick Taylor script and rebound with a win at lofty odds. I’m not quite as optimistic in the WM ambassador’s prospects over four rounds. But there’s no denying the veteran loves this course, is in solid form, and is known to get off to a hot start.
Doug Ghim
My bet: +9000
Best available odds: Doug Ghim +100000 on DraftKings
Doug Ghim is exactly the type of player I’m looking for in the value range of WM Phoenix Open odds, given his ability to keep the ball in play off the tee and separate with his elite approach play. I just don’t see him picking up his first career win at this event given how much he’s struggled on the greens lately. But with three top-15 finishes between here and TPC Sawgrass since 2022, it’s clear this layout suits his eye.
WM Phoenix OPEN Bets: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)
Full Tournament Matchup: Kurt Kitayama > Sam Stevens
My bet: +100
Best available odds: Kurt Kitayama -118 on BetMGM
I’m surprised to see Sam Stevens is the favorite in this market. Anyone who’s run a model this week will have Kurt Kitayama’s name rise towards the top considering his ball-striking form. And while I do believe Sam Stevens will have a long and successful career on tour, I’m not ready to call his current stretch of form anything more than a heater to start the year.
I’ll take the signature event winner with better course history at plus odds in this matchup.
Top-20 Finish: Billy Horschel
My bet: +240
Best available odds: Billy Horschel +11000 on FanDuel
Last week, I went all in on Justin Rose at Pebble Beach. I had exposure across the outright, each way, placement, and fantasy formats. That worked out well, so we’re going to roll out a similar blitz of the Billy Horschel market this week. He fits all the trends for the WM Phoenix Open and is rounding into form with back-to-back top-20 finishes.
Top-20 Finish: Victor Perez
My bet: +500
Best available odds: Victor Perez +30000 on FanDuel
Perez is one of the more volatile players in this field, and I’m taking a stance on his ability to catch a hot putter with streaky iron play at these longer odds. His game has been OK of late, with nine top-40 finishes over his last 11 starts since the Olympics. And he’s shown encouraging results on comp courses, highlighted by a T9 finish in his only prior start at TPC Sawgrass.
One And Done
My pick: Justin Thomas
I played Justin Thomas at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. I’m playing him again this week, and I will continue to trot him out here for years to come. We saw JT’s “floor” at this event last year, with a T12 finish proving to be his worst result over the last six years. I can live with that, as I continue to believe JT is overdue for a multi-win season in 2025. His ball striking and putting have improved considerably. His wedge remains world class. And he’s never been more motivated to break this winless drought and leave no doubt about his place on the Ryder Cup team later this year.
I expect Thomas to be the most popular OAD selection this week by a wide margin, followed by Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, and Scottie Scheffler. If not Thomas, I would also consider playing Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel, or Tom Kim in OAD.
WM PHOENIX open: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Tour golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own WM Phoenix Open bets. See you next Sunday for The Genesis Invitational preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
WM PHOENIX OPEN ODDS
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