Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds: Webb Simpson To Defend Title In Scottsdale

Posted By FairwayJay on February 2, 2021 - Last Updated on February 3, 2021

The PGA Pros head to Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open over Super Bowl weekend. Annually one of the wildest fan events of the year, “The People’s Open” has been awarded as ‘Tournament of the Year’ by the PGA Tour four times since 2014. The 2021 event at TPC Scottsdale will have limited fan attendance of 5,000 spectators per day due to COVID-19 concerns.

A total of five of the top 10 and 21 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings will compete. That includes defending champion and world No. 9 Webb Simpson, who won in a playoff last year over Tony Finau. In fact, four of the last five events have been decided in a playoff. Hideki Matsuyama is also in the field, and he won back-to-back titles in 2016 and 2017.

Phoenix Open odds 2021

Jon Rahm (+600), Justin Thomas (+750) and Xander Schauffele (+800) opened as the favorites to win the Phoenix Open at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Outright winner

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Jon Rahm
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+600
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+600
Justin Thomas
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+750
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+800
Xander Schauffele
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+800
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+1100
Rory McIlroy
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+1200
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+1100
Webb Simpson
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+1400
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+1600
Daniel Berger
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+1600
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+2200
Hideki Matsuyama
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+2200
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+2200
Harris English
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+2500
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+2800
Sungjae Im
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+3300
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+3300
Billy Horschel
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+4000
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+5000
Louis Oosthuizen
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+4000
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+5000
Ryan Palmer
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+4000
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+4000
Scottie Scheffler
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+4500
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+4000
Will Zalatoris
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+4500
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+4000
Rickie Fowler
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+5000
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+4000
Brooks Koepka
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+5000
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+5000
Bubba Watson
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+5000
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+5000
Matthew Wolff
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+5000
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+5000
Si Woo Kim
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+5500
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+6600
Russell Henley
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+6600
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+6600

See the full odds boards at DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM.

Top players in the field

Rory McIlroy will play in the Phoenix Open for the first time ever, and he’ll be joined by fellow top golfers in the OWGR’s rankings – Rahm, Thomas and Schauffele.

Rahm returns to his adopted home, putting to use the experience of Scottsdale that he gained in a record-setting stint at Arizona State. Rahm has finished T11 or better in all four starts and has shot under par in 15-of-16 rounds at TPC Scottsdale.

Top players in the field include:

  • Jon Rahm (No. 2 OWGR)
  • Justin Thomas (3)
  • Xander Schauffele (6)
  • Rory McIlroy (7)
  • Webb Simpson (9)
  • Brooks Koepka (12)
  • Daniel Berger (13)
  • Matthew Wolff (15)
  • Harris English (16)
  • Sungjae Im (17)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (21)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (24)
  • Ryan Palmer (28)

Other notable players include Scottie Scheffler, Billy Horschel, Gary Woodland, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Brendon Todd, Bubba Watson, Si Woo Kim and 2019 Phoenix Open winner Rickie Fowler. 

Recent Phoenix Open winners and runner-ups:

  • 2020 – Webb Simpson* (-17), Tony Finau
  • 2019 – Rickie Fowler (-17), Branden Grace
  • 2018 – Gary Woodland* (-18), Chez Reavie
  • 2017 – Hideki Matsuyama* (-17), Webb Simpson
  • 2016 – Hideki Matsuyama* (-14), Rickie Fowler

*Playoff

Top finishers in 2020 and 2019 returning in 2021:

  • Webb Simpson (Win)
  • Justin Thomas (T3)
  • Bubba Watson (T3)
  • Nate Lashley (T3)
  • Scott Piercy (T6)
  • Adam Long (8)
  • Jon Rahm (T9)
  • Daniel Berger (T9)
  • Billy Horschel (T9)
  • Branden Grace (T9)
  • Hudson Swafford (T9)
  • Mark Hubbard (T9)
  • Xander Schauffele (T16)
  • Harris English (T16)

Rickie Fowler won in 2019 with Branden Grace (2), Justin Thomas (3), Matt Kuchar (T4), Bubba Watson (T4), Sungjae Im (T7), Gary Woodland (T7), Jon Rahm (T10), Xander Schauffele (T10) and Harold Varner (T10).

Golfers to watch

While the golfers at the top of the odds board and power rankings take most bets to win, you can still find value and take a shot on other players while adding top finishing position bets. Last week we had some added notes in the ‘Golfers to Watch’ section on Patrick Reed (+2900), who went on to win the Farmers Insurance Open by 5 shots.

Other favorites were challenging and finished top 5 – Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland, and tournament favorite Jon Rahm finished T7. Two other longhosts in the Golfers to Watch section were just 2 shots off the lead heading into Sunday, and Adam Scott (+4500) finished T10 while Sam Burns fell off but finished T18.

So there are ways to cash in with top finishing position and still get some good prices on mid-tier players and others at big longshot odds.

Here are some other Golfers to Watch and consider in your ‘Fairway Foursome’ for outright win bets and/or top finishing position at TPC Scottsdale for the Phoenix Open. Bettors may gain added information you can bet on for select tournament match-ups.

Sungjae Im (+3400 DraftKings): Sunjae Im was on his way to a top 10 finish last week until a 6-over 42 back nine blowup on Sunday dropped him to T32. Im’s putting is much better on Bermudagrass, and he ranks top 20 in this field on the surface. He’s also top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Total over his last 36 rounds and his ball striking remains strong along with his top 10 ranking in Off the Tee. Im finishing T7 here on debut in 2019, so he connected to the course and conditions. Thought his odds would be closer to +2000, and at this price he makes the Golfers to Watch list.

Rickie Fowler (+5000 DraftKings): The 2019 Phoenix Open winner has a strong profile on this course with two other top 5 finishes since 2016 and a T11. He’s +400 to finish top 10 this year. Fowler’s game fell way off last year, as his driver deserted him too often. He’s hit that club much better in his two recent tournaments, and his Approach play is coming around. We know he’s always been a solid putter, and Fowler’s preference for bermuda greens has shown here with six straight appearances of positive gains in strokes gained putting. Fowler was +1600 to win at Phoenix in 2020, and these odds are hardly reflect his course form and improving current play with his Strokes Gained: Total ranking No. 11 in this field over his last 36 rounds.

Max Homa (+7000 DraftKings): Max does not drive the ball accurately, but this desert course is more to his liking having finished T6 at 13-under last year following an over-par opening round. He’s a Scottsdale resident, and that was Homa’s second time in the event. He was playing better entering last year’s event with some strong GIR stats, but Homa has finished T18 and T21 the last two weeks in his opening two events of 2021. Homa is +550 to finish top 10 and +225 for top 20, and his best strokes gained stats over his last 36 rounds are SG: Ball Striking, Approach and Off the Tee.

Martin Laird (+17500 DraftKings): The further you scroll down the list of players, the bigger discrepancy in odds. FanDuel has Laird at +10000, while DraftKings is letting Laird go at +175000. That’s a huge overlay, as the 38-year-old Scottish golfer resides in Scottdale, and he ranks top 10 on Tour this season in driving accuracy and Greens in Regulation. Laird had three top 10 finishes in this event starting in 2015, and he was top 10 into the final round in 2019 before falling down the standings. Laird has played his best in the desert, and he hit the jackpot in Vegas last October with a victory. Prefer to see better current form as his strokes gained stats since his win are not noteworthy. Laird did, however, finish T17 in the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January to start the New Year.

Added chip-ins and notes: Russell Henley gets the mention as a Mulligan this week. He made the Golfers to Watch list at the Sony Open and finished T11. Now he’s more than twice those odds at +7500 and is coming off a well-needed week of rest. Henley has finished top 20 in two of the last four years at this event, but more importantly, he’s been striking the ball among the best on Tour going back many months. Henley’s driving accuracy is top-tier, as is his ability to hit greens and score, as he ranks top 10 in all three this season. Henley’s model profile for this event puts him at the top for Par 4 scoring and bogey avoidance

Course and tournament information

  • Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium)
  • Location: Scottsdale, AZ
  • Date: Feb. 4-7
  • Par: 71 / Yardage 7,261
  • Purse: $7.3 Million / Winner $1.3 M
  • Fairways/Rough: Bermudagrass with perennial ryegrass & fine fescue
  • Greens: : TifEagle with velvet bentgrass, Poa trivialis & perennial ryegrass
  • TV: Golf Channel (Thurs-Sun) and NBC (Sat-Sun)
  • Twitter & Hashtag: @WMPhoenixOpen
  • Defending Champion: Webb Simpson

The greens at TPC Scottsdale are larger, averaging nearly 7,000 square feet. Water comes into play on six holes, and the smooth bermuda greens are scarcely protected by hazards. Hitting greens has been key to contending, as nearly every champion in memory has featured towards the top of Greens-in-Regulation.

Scottsdale is a course on which the very best Tee-to-Green operators on Tour have thrived. The desert course plays fairly benign through 14 holes, and then a brilliant closing stretch of great reward options make for a thrilling finish.

The Par 5 at No. 15 is a classic risk/reward with a water hazard from tee-to-green down the left side. Then the fun starts at No. 16, where the robust action usually draws screaming fans in an unmatched amphitheater surrounded by grandstands. That will be mostly missing this year at the short Par 3 known as the ‘Colosseum’.

Key stats

Scottsdale has traditionally been an event in which the strongest ball-strikers also do well and move towards the forefront. Desert form is worth noting, and looking at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, we see these players in the Phoenix Open field ranking highest over their last 36 rounds.

  • Bubba Watson
  • Sam Burns
  • Justin Thomas
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Russell Henley
  • Corey Conners
  • Jon Rahm

These are your Strokes Gained: Total leaders in this field over their last 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Harris English, Webb Simpson.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green leaders over their last 36 rounds include:

  • Justin Thomas
  • Russell Henley
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Jon Rahm
  • Bubba Watson
  • Harold Varner

During the 2021 season that has now covered 17 tournaments, the Tour average for Greens in Regulation (GIR) is 67.56. These are the top players in the Phoenix Open field in GIR at greater than 74%:

  • Matthew NeSmith (77.55%), Russell Knox, Martin Laird, Stewart Cink, Emiliano Grillo, Sam Burns and James Hahn (74.57%).

Also, add SG: Approach and, Off-the-Tee to your key stats metrics along with Birdie or better scoring, and par-4 and par-5 scoring.

Leaders in SG: Approach include: Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Matthew Wolff (withdrew last week, hand), Keegan Bradley, Chez Reavie, Matt Norlander, Bubba Watson.

Following the Phoenix Open, players head back to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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