My 2022 WM Phoenix Open Betting Card, Storylines, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on February 9, 2022
phoenix open best bets

Wednesday is here already, the Phoenix Open best bets are locked, and now it’s time to kick back and enjoy four full days at TPC Scottsdale for one of the best fields we’ve seen all year. The 2022 WM Phoenix Open should be one of the most entertaining golf events of the season.

Last week, Tom Hoge got us on the board with our first outright cash of 2022, and now we’re looking to keep that momentum going into Scottsdale!

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Wednesday at 8PM EST to talk through all my favorite 2022 WM Phoenix Open bets and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. There’s also a ton of Super Bowl cross-over props that I think we’re going to need to crowdsource to pick the right side on. Hope to see you there!

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 WM Phoenix Open bets as well.

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My BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY WM PHOENIX OPEN BETS

All the research I did this week kept bringing me back to the same ideology: Play the good players. Good golfers win this tournament. It’s that simple! Eight of the last nine winners of this event have opened at 30-1 odds or shorter, so I spent a long time thinking on which player in the mid-to-high teens I wanted to build around. From there, I really just chased value on some numbers I felt were too high for that player’s caliber.

In general, you want great ball strikers at TPC Scottsdale. There are a number of risk/reward holes on this course where confident, aggressive players can start to separate themselves by generating more birdie opportunities. To the same end, there are plenty of high pressure tee shots down the stretch of this golf course that are going to expose the weaker players in contention.

Thankfully the dismissal of course rotations means we have a full field playing the same course on Thursday, so FRLs are back where they belong on the card, with plenty of value in the longshot ranges this week. Unit allocations for Outrights (3U in to pay out 24U+), Props (3U in to pay out 3U each), and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+) will remain the same as usual.

OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +1800
Best Odds Still Available:

In the immediate future, we should be thinking of Hideki Matsuyama like Collin Morikawa: If the putter stays neutral to the field, he’s going to be a threat to win. Everything is clicking for Hideki right now having won twice in his last four starts, and now he enters the one course he’s had the most sustained success at over the course of his career in TPC Scottsdale. I really thought the reigning Masters champion and two-time WMPO winner fresh off of two early 2022 PGA TOUR wins would open in the 12-1 to 14-1 odds range. He’s clearly third in my power rankings this week after Rahm and JT, and Hideki has actually been winning golf tournaments lately, so I’ll happily take the price discount on one of the hottest golfers on the planet right now.

Tony Finau

My Bet: +5000
Best Odds Still Available:

Late add here after Webb Simpson WD

Abraham Ancer

My Bet: +6600
Best Odds Still Available:

In general, if I like Webb, I’m going to also like Abraham Ancer. They both have great history on courses that neutralize distance advantage and emphasize positional play & a good all-around skillset. Ancer has great history in desert conditions like The AmEx and The Shriners, and I don’t think he’ll shy away from the spotlight of playing in this raucous arena.

Aaron Wise

My Bet: +9500
Best Odds Still Available:

So oddly enough, I was able to place this bet in FanDuel’s “Without Rahm, Thomas, Matsuyama, or Hovland” market, with the same odds I was seeing across all other standard outright markets. So in a perfect world, Matsuyama wins, and Wise finishes runner up. Fluke pricing aside, I was going to bet Wise at this outright price regardless. If Kyle Stanley can win here, Aaron Wise with his new and improved broomstick putter can absolutely win here.

K.H. Lee

My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:

No rationale necessary. You play TPC Lee on TPC courses, and you don’t hesitate to play him on a Tom Weiskopf-designed TPC course. His last two finishes on Weiskopf TPCs? A win at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson and a T2 at the 2021 WM Phoenix Open.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:

This is a pure value bet on a severe misprice. He’s finished T12-or-better in three of his last four starts, and looked dominant halfway through the CJ Cup at The Summit Club, a solid comp to TPC Scottsdale, before regressing back on the weekend for a T3 finish. He can lean on his driver and hot putter to find success at TPC Scottsdale, where he finished T16 in 2020, and is even showing some life with the irons in recent weeks.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +15000
Best Odds Still Available:

Last week I bet Mito at 50-1, this week I’m betting Mito at 150-1. He didn’t get 3x worse over the course of seven days, and he now enters a course that should allow him to separate from the field with his elite Ball Striking. The sustained positive putting over his last four events is a nice added bonus as well.

FIRST ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +8000
Best Odds Still Available:

Keegan was a First Round winner for us at the Valspar last year, and has earned auto-bet privileges whenever he reaches 80-1 in the FRL market.

Aaron Wise

My Bet: +9500
Best Odds Still Available:

The exact same player as Keegan Bradley, but with newfound putting upside. Just avoid any 5-putts this Thursday and he’ll be in the mix come Thursday!

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:

Just outrageous disrespect to hang a 130-1 on the Thursday GOAT. There is no excuse not to put this bet on your card for the two-time 2021 FRL winner.

James Hahn

My Bet: +13000
Best Odds Still Available:

The risk with playing James Hahn this week is we don’t know if he’s going to be healthy enough to play four rounds. I like getting exposure here as an FRL with a player who nearly won the 2021 WMPO and fired a 60 recently at the Barbasol Championship.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +16000
Best Odds Still Available:

Eckroat was nearly on 59-watch at Pebble Beach last Thursday. A great ball striker and birdie-maker, he’s a perfect candidate for FRL at the WMPO, especially at these odds.

Jason Dufner

My Bet: +18000
Best Odds Still Available:

Dufner was one stroke off the First Round lead three starts ago at the Houston Open. He was the longest odds available this week in the FRL market. Sounds like value!

PROPS (3 UNITS)

The Patrick Cantlay T10 conviction bet bailed us out for a breakeven prop week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which I’ll take any time we hit a winner. Unfortunately the T20 and T30 bets from Russell Knox and Chad Ramey didn’t give us much of a sweat. This week, the goal is to hit at least two out of three.

Top-10 Finish: Jon Rahm

My Bet: -110
Best Odds Still Available:

As it turns out, betting the odds-on favorite to finish in the top-10 at even odds has been a profitable strategy in 2022. It’s not a very sexy strategy, but so far, it’s worked. I was really hoping I could bet Rahm outright this week if he slipped to 9-1, but the reality is, we just have to get used to seeing him at an un-bettable price and hoping this streak of not winning is sustainable. If he does spoil my outright card’s hopes, at least the props were free.

Top-30 Finish: KH Lee

My Bet: +250
Best Odds Still Available: +250

Okay so there is more to like about KH Lee than just the TPC narrative and the T2 here last year. He’s made it through the cut in twelve of his last thirteen starts, which is the type of consistency I like to see for a T30 bet, and over that span, has had six top-30 finishes. He’s consistent off-the-tee and has the ability to pop with his irons, so I expect him to see the weekend once more at TPC Scottsdale and push inside the top-30 come Sunday.

Top-40 Finish: Jason Dufner

My Bet: +400
Best Odds Still Available:

Dufner is 16th overall in my model this week, and I know there’s some flaws in it if that’s the case. But hey, maybe there’s not, and the stars have aligned for him to finally breakthrough in Phoenix, where he has two career T10s. He’s finished no better than T40 in each of his last five starts, but he’s gaining strokes on average in all four major SG categories over that span, which tells me he’s really close to breaking through. Long term, Dufner is a good ball striker who leaves some to be desired on the greens, but TPC Scottsdale has been welcoming to that type of player over the years.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

I’m breaking a lot of my own OAD rules already by going with what may very well be the consensus chalk player for a third straight week after playing Tony Finau at the Farmers Insurance Open and Patrick Cantlay at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The reality is, I expect the elites to do well here this week, and I think it’s a sensible time to use one of the best players here. There is nobody who has a better combination of recent form and course history than Hideki Matsuyama, and there is definitely no other time for the rest of this season that I’d feel more comfortable playing him than right here, right now.

If not Matsuyama, I think you could make a compelling case for Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele, Abraham Ancer, and even Jon Rahm in this spot for OAD.

FINAL BETTING CARD

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CLOSING THOUGHTS AND STORYLINES

I liked my card a lot last week, but this week I’m a little more apprehensive with Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas looming over this field. I’m latching on to hope that Hideki Matsuyama can keep himself level with the field with his putter.

My prediction is that once again, someone at 30-1 or shorter odds is going to win this tournament. You just can’t fake it on this course with so many pressure shots and an intense crowd looming around every shot. I’m partial to players who have either proven themselves in this environment already, or have won in other big stages like the Ryder Cup, Majors, or THE PLAYERS.

Here’s a look at a few last storylines I’m looking out for at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open.

Super Bowl Sunday

I did not include Super Bowl props on my betting card, but I’m definitely still keeping a close eye on the Super Bowl-WMPO cross over props that are available. I’m about to spend a lot of money on Super Bowl bets, so really banking on golf to keep my bankroll afloat.

Return of the Crowds

It’s been two long years since we last watched this event filled with 50,000 fans in the crowd. I think a post-COVID world has introduced a lot of new golf fans to the sport, and especially leading right up to Super Bowl Sunday, I’m excited for casual sports fans to get a taste of what this atmosphere is like.

Course History

Last week there was a lot of talk about the importance of Course History. For the most part, I ignored it, just playing the best value players. Fortunately for me, one of those values was Tom Hoge, who I did land on in part due to his course history.

This week, I’m really leaning into course history. I want to see players who have stepped into this arena, embraced the crowds, taken on the risks when needed, and come out victorious. My outright hopes are clinging on to Hideki Matsuyama or Webb Simpson channeling that past success, so we’ll see how it plays out.

Good luck with your 2022 WM Phoenix Open bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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