Commanders Odds: Will Washington Outperform 2023 NFL Win Totals?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 10, 2023
Commanders Odds

While there are an abundance of question marks ahead of the 2023 NFL regular season, one of the more unequivocal certainties revolves around Washington Commanders odds. On paper, they’re priced as the worst team in NFC East odds. But results don’t necessarily play out that way, especially since this theory is already baked into the betting market. With that in mind, how should bettors gauge them for season-long NFL win totals?

Click on any of the Commanders odds below to place a wager from the best sports betting sites. Are you a Washington sports fan living in the Old Line State? Get the best Maryland sportsbook promo codes.

New Quarterback & Offensive Coordinator In Command

The Commanders’ offense was at the forefront of their concerns in 2022, accumualting the league’s eighth-lowest EPA per play. Poor quarterback play largely contributed to their ranking. What’s even more concerning is that Taylor Heineke (now in Atlanta) was even more fortunate than his 13 total turnovers would suggest. If newly-minted starter Sam Howell doesn’t benefit from positive luck like Heineke, there’s no telling where the floor will bottom out in our nation’s capital.

Howell’s protection also remains a hefty liability. After finishing with the sixth-worst collective pass block win rate, Washington signed center Nick Gates (Giants) and Andrew Wylie (Chiefs). Neither offensive lineman graded out higher than No. 45 at their respective position, according to Pro Football Focus.

Even with a polished collection of wideouts — Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson (fifth-highest aDOT for receivers with at least 50 targets) — Howell may still fail to meet the Commanders’ expectations as a serviceable NFL QB. Jacoby Brissett, a proven seven-year backup, is waiting in the wings should Howell blow his opportunity.

That said, Washington managed to reel in former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who will take on the reigns of full-time play-calling duties after coaching under Andy Reid. Whether Bieniemy can refine Howell’s skillset is a tantalizing variable to deliberate over.

Commanders’ defensive upside

Last season, Ron Rivera’s bunch ranked No. 1 in success rate allowed despite encountering one of the top-five most difficult schedules of opposing offenses. Moreover, Washington forced the seventh-fewest takeaways across the NFL. The latter may appear concerning on the surface, but year-over-year turnover production (or lack thereof) isn’t predictable.

Since the Commanders lost no critical personnel, there’s theoretically a high ceiling if their takeaway numbers experience positive regression. They’ve in essence acquired an All-Pro edge rusher in Chase Young — should he stay healthy — as well. In his final two games in 2022, Young flashed the talent that he exhibited over his first two years in the league, manufacturing seven pressures on only 51 pass-rush snaps.

2023 Schedule

Among teams with a win total of 6.5 or less, Washington has one of the most strenuous schedules yet again. Squaring off twice against the Eagles and Cowboys, a pair of likely double-digit win candidates, doesn’t help its case. Hence, expecting another year with upper-tier defensive results is a tall task, but the aforementioned turnover variance could work in its favor.

Similar to the table above, click on any of the following Commanders odds to place a wager. That includes NFL Week 1 odds.

Conclusion on Commanders odds

I have Washington projected for roughly six victories, which is right on par with its current / win total. Keep in mind, the Commanders opened at 7.5 in this market. However, plus-money towards the over does present a smidge of value if you’re willing to plug your nose. If you want longer odds, you can also consider alternate win totals.

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