NFL Longshot Bets: Washington Commanders Keep Rising; Buy High Or Sell High?
I was looking at NFL longshot futures markets this week, and one of the frames of reference that I want to maintain is how we might look back on this moment in time in four, six, or 10 weeks’ time, reflecting as we learn new information. Given what we know now, is it more likely that Washington Commanders’ odds to win the NFC (currently Washington Commanders +1100 on Caesars) will be closer to 25-1 or 5-1 in December? It seems more likely that the market is slow to update to the reality of the Washington offense, both on offense and defense. I want to be early on the Commanders because of how they have achieved their success.
So let’s dive into the central question around betting on the Washington Commanders, specifically NFC East odds, conference championship, and Super Bowl odds. Is what we’re seeing from Jayden Daniels, a rookie, sustainable? And is the Washington offense a top unit like they’re playing or merely a good offense as the market is currently pricing?
Washington Commanders Odds: 2024 Futures
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Can The Washington Commanders Sustain This Elite Offense?
We discussed last week that it is one thing to produce at an elite clip and another to look behind the hood and see whether that production is sustainable.
Production metrics like EPA are valuable and should be used, of course. But we should also realize they can be misleading. To use an extreme example, if a team doesn’t turn the ball over ever or hits on 80% explosive plays, the production would look great and sub-components of production would as well, but it would not be sustainable.
I want to peel back the production behind Washington and see if it can be sustained.
Daniels Is Not Letting Plays Break Down
When the play breaks down, Daniels has done a remarkable job creating with the No. 2 create rate in the NFL. This happens when a QB faces a bad situation and he either engineers a throw to an open receiver or scrambles for positive expectancy.
But more importantly, Daniels has shown a remarkable ability to process early in the season, only seeing disruption on 35% of the plays, which is No. 3 in the NFL. This rate, as the research suggests, is primarily driven by the quarterback and is one of the more stable quarterback metrics from week to week and year to year.
As you can see, the ability to stay undisturbed is crucial to offensive success. Washington is adding nearly 0.5 points per play when kept clean.
Not only has Daniels produced good results there, but he has done a terrific job avoiding mistakes and destroying plays by either throwing to non-open receivers, taking sacks, or taking off on bad scrambles. By virtue of his decision-making, Daniels has maintained an elite destroy rate, suggesting these should sustain itself or at least be directionally accurate.
No matter how you slice it, Daniels’s traits in his processing, decision-making, and scrambling ability suggest he can succeed in most situations and that his production is no fluke.
What About The Commanders Rushing Offense?
Washington is performing well in the run game, creating big running holes, and winning after contact as well. Having a mobile QB like Jayden Daniels certainly helps in the run game, given the gravity he commands.
We’ve Heard Frequently the Washington Defense Is Bad; Is It True?
While the argument in favor of Washington and its right tail lies primarily in their offense, there are also some signs of life from the team defensively. Now, by no means, does this project as a good defensive unit, but the pass-rush has come alive in recent weeks.
Dorance Armstong is very quietly having a terrific season, fourth in the NFL in disruption and pressure rate, and Dante Fowler is not too far behind. And let us not forget that the team is getting more comfortable in Dan Quinn’s scheme, which has traditionally led defenses to high-pressure rates.
Led by the pass rush, from a disruption standpoint, the team is just about average on defense.
Disruption is not everything, and there is more to defensive success in the NFL. The team being abysmal in run defense also doesn’t help, but the market pricing for this team is one where the defense is a bottom-three unit.
There is a clear path to the defense, led by the pass-rush, being a merely below-average unit. And that might just be enough given how good this offense has been.
Washington Commanders Odds Buoyed By Overrated NFC East
It is also worth noting, as we see in Timo Riske’s chart below,, that Washington is in a division with some overpriced teams relative to their performance.
As was the case at the end of last year, both Philadelphia and Dallas have struggled defensively, and the Giants are in a different tier on offense, already playing at a two-game deficit as the longshots in the NFC East. Combine this with Washington having one of the easiest remaining schedules– games against TEN, CAR, CHI, PIT, TEN, NO, and ATL outside of division–and there is a real path to this team stacking up wins.
Assuming the offense is as good as we think, I expect the Washington Commanders odds against the spread to show them as favorites in most of these games outside of the NFC East.
My Bets On Washington Commanders Odds
I want to be early on Washington, and I love Commanders odds to win the NFC East at +200, NFC at +1600, and even the Super Bowl at +3500.
Best Available Washington Commanders Odds
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- To Win Super Bowl 59: Washington Commanders +2200 on Caesars
- NFC Futures: Washington Commanders +1100 on Caesars
- NFC East Futures: Washington Commanders +120 on BetRivers
- NFC No. 1 Seed: Washington Commanders +120 on BetRivers
- Win Total: Over 11.5 (+110) on Caesars