WCF Odds: Will Mavs Hang Tough Against Warriors In Game 5?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 25, 2022 - Last Updated on May 27, 2022
Warriors Mavs Odds

Game 5 of the NBA Western Conference finals tips off on Thursday night. Below is my Warriors – Mavericks odds breakdown for the matchup. Click the odds below to place a bet.

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Warriors – Mavericks Odds: Game 5 Markets

Can Dallas’ Offense Continue To Roll?

Jason Kidd’s bunch was on the verge of getting swept by the Warriors, but the Mavericks responded by shooting 46.3% from behind the arc on Tuesday. Although that’s an unsustainable percentage, Dallas was actually expected to win Game 3 as well, per ShotQuality, yet failed to convert numerous, open 3-point looks.

In fact, ShotQuality projected for the Mavs to win each of the first three matchups. While their Game 1 loss could be credited to a seven-game war of attrition against the Suns in the semifinals, Dallas could still be leading this series. Playing the “what if” card isn’t always applicable when determining game-by-game value, but in this case, the matter at hand is simple ⁠— assuming Luka Doncic and his running mates hit open 3s, they should at least hang around.

But what’s the key to generating another sound performance? Keep in mind, Golden State tallied 0.92 first-half points per possession (PPP) in the Mavs’ lone win, and it’s unlikely to replicate itself.

Pace Of Play A Critical Factor

In Game 4, the two teams combined for 101 first-half possessions, roughly seven more possessions than the Mavericks have averaged over the first 24 minutes in the postseason. Plus, Kidd’s group has notched the fourth-slowest tempo — in both first halves and over the course of a full game — among playoff teams.

Hence, Dallas clearly aimed to push the pace, and the adjustment should carry over into Thursday. It’ll allow Doncic to break down the Warriors’ isolation defense even quicker, too, which is their biggest liability at that end of the floor.

Successfully running with Golden State is a taxing effort, considering Steph Curry & Co. boast one of the league’s most efficient transition units. But if Dallas employs it selectively, it’ll take pressure off their defense, especially after letting up 1.18 PPP over the last four contests.

The Warriors’ prowess for limiting the small-ball Mavs’ second-chance attempts, compiling an 83.9% defensive rebounding rate in the series, has delivered more opportunities to speed up the tempo. Nevertheless, look for Doncic to seize their chances of doing the same.

Best Available Line: Mavs
Eli’s Warriors – Mavericks Odds:

 

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich