Spurs’ Wemby Suffers Season-Ending Injury; Jackson Jr. Favored Among NBA DPOY Odds

NBA fans across the globe received crushing news on Thursday. Spurs superstar and resident alien Victor Wembanyama is out for the year after the team discovered DVT (blood clots) in his shoulder. How does the Wemby injury affect NBA odds going forward?

We’ll take a look at two betting angles that were significantly affected.

Wemby Ineligible For Awards

The Wemby injury has drastically shifted the Defensive Player of the Year landscape. Before the discovery of the blood clot issue, Wembanyama was a prohibitive favorite in the market. He was around -2000 (~95% implied probability).

A year after finishing second in the voting, Wemby had accrued some impressive stats. He once again led the league in blocks (3.8 BPG, up from 3.6), racking up 1.1 steals per game, and his -9 defensive rating on/off differential was in the league’s 98th percentile, per Cleaning The Glass. He had an airtight case.

None of that matters now because Wembanyama won’t reach the 65-game threshold for postseason award eligibility. He was on track to clear that mark despite missing a few games, pacing for 72 appearances.

According to the market, that has cleared the way for another Jaren Jackson Jr. win:

Jackson is far from the sort of favorite that Wemby was before the injury. He also has an elite differential (96th percentile), though he doesn’t boast Wembanyama-level steals and blocks. Memphis does have the No. 7 defense, per Cleaning The Glass.

The Thunder are also well-represented, with three players among the candidates. They have a historically great defense, but it’s more team-driven when compared with Memphis and San Antonio.

One look at the odds above shows how a freak disruptive event like the Wemby injury can create possible value. Market prices vary wildly in some cases, making this an ideal time to line shop before prices settle.

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Spurs Futures Bleak For 2025 After Wemby INjury

Before the Wemby injury, the Spurs were hanging around the periphery of the Western Conference playoff picture. Sitting 23-29, they certainly needed a hot streak.

However, they had a higher true talent level than that after making the De’Aaron Fox trade in early February. With Fox and Wemby forming the core of a theoretically threatening offense and the big fella anchoring the defense, one could imagine a path to the playoffs via the play-in.

The teams immediately ahead of Phoenix and Golden State haven’t been lighting the NBA aflame. Eighth-place Dallas also looks like a slide candidate after Anthony Davis’ injury.

Now, the Spurs’ +550 playoff odds have them around 15% to get in. That looks optimistic since they have to pass two teams (3 1/2 games back) just to reach the play-in.

Recall Wembanyama’s elite differential referenced above. Chris Paul is the only high-volume player on the Spurs with a better one, and given that he shared the court with Wemby in 16 of his 17 most common lineups, it isn’t easy to separate the two.

Bettors can browse the best Spurs odds below.

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