2024 Valspar Championship Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About The Copperhead Course At Innisbrook Resort

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
valspar championship odds 2024

Another week of Florida golf on the PGA TOUR brings us to The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort with the 2024 Valspar Championship. Compare Valspar Championship odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Sam Burns project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Yet another week of golf in the Sunshine State. Many of the PGA TOUR’s best are headed to Palm Harbor to paint the town red for the 2024 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course.

The fourth and final leg of the Florida Swing, the Valspar Championship, is yet another demanding course from tee to green. Innisbrook tests the field’s total ball-striking and short game around pure Bermuda greens. With many tight doglegs and some of the most challenging par-3s on TOUR, it’s a course where long iron and Bermuda putting specialists thrive.

Here’s a full look at everything to expect from the 2024 Valspar Championship.


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Historically, expectations were fairly low for the field strength of the Valspar Championship. It sits in an unenviable position on the schedule, following back-to-back Signature events in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS. Traditionally, the WGC Match Play in Austin followed, making a natural bye week for top players to recuperate. Despite an outcry from golf fans to keep the one event on TOUR each year that breaks up Stroke Play, no Match Play event plays in 2024.

Ultimately, that’s a net positive for the Valspar. New stars like Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, and Daniel Berger make their Valspar debuts this week. Presumably, they’ll take a week off during the Houston Open instead. Tony Finau makes his first Valspar Championship start since 2018. He notably was one of the only eligible players to skip the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so he has gone out of his way to squeeze this event into his schedule.

In total, we’ll see 15 players inside the OWGR top 40. In addition to the newcomers mentioned, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, and Sam Burns headline this star-studded field.

Taylor Moore prevailed over a leaderboard packed with stars in 2023. He returns to defend his maiden PGA TOUR victory. Two-time winner Sam Burns is joined by Jordan Spieth, Adam Hadwin, Kevin Streelman, Luke Donald, and Gary Woodland as past champions in this week’s field.


Innisbrook is a bit of a hidden gem on the Florida swing, often overshadowed by Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. Those courses typically attract stronger fields. Despite the logjam of premium Florida events, the Valspar continues to attract a solid field. It takes patience and a strong all-around game to compete here.

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) is a treelined, positional golf course that forces many layups off the tee. Players must work the ball in both directions. It’s a shot-makers course with significant elevation changes, opening up the playing field to bombers and short plotters alike.

It’s one of the most difficult courses on TOUR to gain strokes off the tee. Fairways are narrow and difficult to hold, even when laying up with less than driver. Innisbrook yields below-average ranks in both driving accuracy and driving distance.

Only twice since 2013 has the winning score pushed lower than -10. Course History has proven repeatable at this event, as Burns and Casey have both gone back-to-back here over the last six years. The Valspar Championship historically mitigates advantage off the tee and favors the top players in Approach, Scrambling, and Par-5 Scoring. These pure greens have also proven to be a dream for Bermuda (Overseed) putting specialists. Burns, for example, gained 3+ strokes putting at this event in each of his first five appearances.

For Innisbrook Resort course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Valspar winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Valspar Championship odds page.

Editor’s Note


The Copperhead Course forces many layups at 175+ yards. Any time we see a course funnel approach shots from the field to the same yardage range on repeat, those tend to be the courses that breed the stickiest course history.

Looking at that history, nine players have had multiple T20 finishes over the last five years: Sam Burns, Davis Riley, Justin Thomas, Adam Hadwin, Adam Schenk, Luke Donald, Webb Simpson, Scott Stallings, and Charley Hoffman. These players share similar traits as strong approach players with reliable accuracy off the tee.

Seven players made it through the cut in each appearance over the last five years (min. three starts): Burns, Thomas, Stallings, Brandt Snedeker, Lucas Glover, Joel Dahmen, and Joseph Bramlett.

The top 10 players in terms of SG: TOT at the Valspar Championship are Sam Burns, Davis Riley, Matthew NeSmith, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Ryan Moore, Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin, and Adam Schenk.

Sam Burns

In five career appearances at the Valspar, Burns finished T12, T30, T5, and has a pair of victories. Those Valspar finishes begin to paint a compelling picture of course dominance. However, a closer look suggests there may be some smoke behind those finishes.

It’s no secret that Burns putts his best on Bermuda greens. Five of his 15 best career putting displays have come at this event, something not due for massive regression. Still, it’s unusual to see the No. 1 player in total course history rank outside the top 20 in terms of SG: T2G. As Jesse Pinkman would say, “He can’t keep getting away with this!”

The two-time past champion comes with short odds this week. I’ll most likely be looking elsewhere, at least from an outright perspective.

Course Comps

This is not a Pete Dye course, but it does bare similarities to some of Dye’s most famous positional courses like TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, and TPC Sawgrass. Each of these courses mitigates any advantage from driving distance and forces strategic shots with driver or less off the tee. With the Copperhead Course’s added length, it produces more of a challenge than comp courses and places a slightly stronger emphasis on total driving.

Colonial CC stands out as the best comp course in my eyes. Burns won at both of these demanding and positional courses last season. Jordan Spieth has also won at both courses, and players like Davis Riley, Jason Kokrak, Justin Rose, and Louis Oosthuizen have all recorded top-five finishes at both venues since 2018.

The Copperhead Course’s five par-3s are a unique characteristic shared with only Accordia Golf Narashino, host of the ZOZO Championship. Both are courses that reward accuracy off the tee to avoid penal rough.

For the Bermuda specialists like Burns and Taylor Moore, TPC Southwind, CC of Jackson, and Sedgefield CC are solid recent comp courses worth referencing. Riviera CC and TPC Twin Cities have also rewarded a similar style of play from tee to green.

The top 10 players in comp course history this week are Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Taylor Moore, Adam Svensson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Sungjae Im.


  • SG: APP
  • Good Drives Gained / SG: OTT
  • SG: ARG / Scrambling
  • Prox 175+
  • Par-3 Scoring
  • Par-5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting (L36, Bermuda)
  • Course & Comp Course History

A difficult par-71 with four par-5s, Par-5 Scoring told the most consistent story in terms of winning trends. Players who take advantage of those four scoring opportunities should position themselves well to contend this week. The top 10 players in par-5 scoring entering this week are Min Woo Lee, Beau Hossler, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell, Doug Ghim, Justin Thomas, Taylor Pendrith, KH Lee, and Mackenzie Hughes.

With a bonus five par-3s this week, it’s a good time to identify the most comfortable par-3 scorers in the field. There aren’t many birdie opportunities to be had on the par-3s, but keeping a clean card throughout the week across those par-3s may be the difference in determining the winner. The top 10 par-3 scorers in the field are Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, Aaron Baddeley, Chesson Hadley, Greyson Sigg, Billy Horschel, Vince Whaley, Maverick McNealy, Rafael Campos, and Brice Garnett.

Approach And Short Game

This is one of the most crucial courses on TOUR for SG: APP. Many drives funnel to the same layup areas, and several elevation changes must be navigated. The top-10 players SG: APP entering this week are Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell, Greyson Sigg, Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, Carson Young, Cameron Young, Sam Ryder, Nicholas Lindheim, and Kevin Roy.

Over 50% of approaches come from beyond 175 yards, and the top 10 best long iron players in the field are Joel Dahmen, JJ Spaun, Zac Blair, Tony Finau, Ben Martin, Aaron Rai, Andrew Novak, Kevin Yu, Keith Mitchell, and Doug Ghim.

With players hitting both the fairways and greens well below the TOUR average, it’s also a crucial week for short games. Seven players rank in the top 40 in Scrambling, SG: ARG, SG: Short Game, and SG: P (Bermuda): Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Ben Griffin, Brendon Todd, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Putnam, and Peter Malnati.

Combining the key stats together, nine players rank above average in Par-5 Scoring, Prox: 175+, and each of the Short Game stats: Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Andrew Putnam, Maverick McNealy, Chesson Hadley, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Rodgers, and Nico Echavarria. 

Correlation And Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

Looking at the stat correlations this week for Innisbrook, some notable shifts surface compared to the TOUR average. Here, P4: 450-500, Par-3 Scoring, and SG: OTT each fall outside the top 10. Instead, Par-5 Scoring, SG: APP, and Good Drives Gained make the most notable jumps in importance. Just outside the top 10, we also see notable jumps this week in the importance of P5: 600-650, Fairways Gained, and SG: ARG.

Valspar Championship odds
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at Innisbrook

Just seven players rank above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for Innisbrook: Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, Sam Burns, Patrick Rodgers, Adam Svensson, Doug Ghim, and Cameron Young.


Still in active pursuit of his first PGA TOUR victory, a demanding setup like Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course seems like one of the best opportunities yet for the 26-year-old to separate himself from the pack with his elite ball-striking prowess. Since his Ryder Cup “snub,” Young returned to his peak rookie season form, which bred four top-10s across the Majors since 2022.

He’s now gained at least 1.5 strokes in both approach and off-the-tee in each of his last four starts, including top-10s at the WM Phoenix Open and Cognizant Classic over that stretch. Encouragingly, he’s shown a new gear of spike putting upside in each of those top-10 finishes, which closely resemble Copperhead’s Overseeded Bermuda greens.

Young’s elite combination of distance and accuracy give him a significant leg up on claustrophobic courses like Copperhead, as he can comfortably work the ball in both directions off the tee. Though still youthful, he’s impressed with course management in his first looks at venues that typically reward experience and strategy, with top-10 finishes in his debuts at The Open, the Wells Fargo Championship, The Genesis Invitational, and the RBC Heritage.

Though he made his Valspar Championship debut this week, experience is not a prerequisite for this course, as Davis Riley proved in his playoff loss here during his rookie season in 2022. One of the hottest ball-strikers in the field entering this week, particularly with his long-irons where he ranks top-10 in Prox: 175+, this is the ideal tournament setup for Young to pick up his first career victory on TOUR.


With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 Valspar Championship odds, as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

Valspar Championship odds


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Tier 1

Xander Schauffele
Sam Burns

Tier 2

Cameron Young
Tony Finau

Tier 3

Keith Mitchell
Doug Ghim
Keegan Bradley
Beau Hossler
Sungjae Im
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Tier 4

Chesson Hadley
Patrick Rodgers
Joel Dahmen
Adam Svensson
Adam Schenk

Tier 5

Nico Echavarria
Peter Malnati
Andrew Novak
Brandt Snedeker
Luke Donald
Ben Silverman

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For my BTN model this week,  I’m prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, Comp Course History, Par-5 Scoring, and Prox 175+, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: P (L36, Bermuda), Par-3 Scoring, Good Drives Gained, SG: OTT, and Scrambling Gained.

Model Favorites

Riding high off of his impressive form at THE PLAYERS Championship, Xander Schauffele emerges in the No. 1 spot of my model this week and is the betting favorite in Valspar Championship odds. Schauffele may not have the greatest splits when it comes to Florida golf, but he’s proven recently that a player of his stature can find success on any course in the world. He’s made one prior appearance at this event, and he looked solid in 2022 with a T12 finish.

After Schauffele, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Sam Burns, Doug Ghim, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Rai, Brian Harman, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth.

When Valspar Championship odds release Monday, I see myself gravitating towards a tight card with exposure to Cameron Young and Tony Finau among the favorites.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your 2024 Valspar Championship bets!