Valspar Championship Odds, Picks, Predictions: Final Bets, Betting Card, OAD

PGA Tour golf continues with Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course next on tap to host the 2025 Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Fla., this Thursday. This week, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, and Sepp Straka headline among Valspar Championship bets. John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA Tour picks from the available golf odds. Below, you’ll find each player’s best odds at legal betting sites.

PGA Tour action is back, teeing it up this Thursday at Innisbrook Resort for the 2025 Valspar Championship. Despite unfavorable weather conditions, this event has done a great job attracting big names to hang around in this Players Championship “hangover” spot.

Much will be made about the intense winds forecasted this week and the advantage this may give players with early Thursday times. There is an edge to be had there. But overall, I find the market’s reaction to these wave splits to be overblown. So, I’m throwing caution to the wind and taking advantage of the odds discounts with p.m.-a.m. players this week.

Let’s review all my bets for the 2025 Valspar Championship.

Click on any of the Valspar Championship odds below for the best available prices at sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

HOW I BUILT MY Valspar Championship BETTING CARD

It will be windy all four days at Innisbrook Resort. So, regardless of which tee time draw each player has, premium ball-striking and reliable scrambling will be heightened in difficult conditions. I expect this to be a week where top players can separate, so I’ve built my card around battle-tested veterans with proven success in windy conditions.

With all of that in mind, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the Valspar Championship:

• Outrights — 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL — 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full tournament matchups — 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props — 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

Valspar championship BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Check out my golf sleepers for the Valspar Championship for PGA Tour DFS picks and longshot bet considerations.

Justin Thomas

My bet: +2000
Best available odds:

Before getting this week’s forecast, I expected to see Justin Thomas as the solo favorite, and at potential single-digit odds. I’ve bet Justin Thomas at single-digit odds before in 2022 and was not opposed to that idea again this week. The forecast changed everything, however. Some players like Thomas saw their odds nearly double after falling in the p.m.-a.m. wave. If, at worst, we see a two-stroke disparity between average scores in the p.m.-a.m. vs. a.m.-p.m. waves, this is still a tremendous discount for a player in Thomas who we know is comfortable playing catch-up over the weekend.

Thomas struck the ball better than anyone at TPC Sawgrass from Friday-Sunday, tying the course record in his second round. It seems inevitable that his successive tour win will come this season, and he’s proven over time that he can raise his baseline in windy conditions. He received the “bad” weather draw at Southern Hills, where he picked up his last tour win. Things set up well for him to contend this week on a course where he’s already delivered five top 20s over seven career appearances.

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Shane Lowry

My bet: +4000
Best available odds:

If you’re going to take on players who’ve drawn the “bad” tee time wave split, you have to feel comfortable about their game being able to withstand high winds and conditions that emphasize scrambling. Lowry is a bona fide links golfer and has made a long career out of weathering the storm in difficult conditions. His two best finishes so far this season (second at the AT& Pebble Beach Pro-Am, seventh at the Arnold Palmer Invitational) both came in high winds on courses that emphasize scrambling, so the Florida resident will be battle-tested as he heads to Innisbrook.

Entering in some of the best form of his career, Lowry will look to improve on a career-best T12 finish the last time he teed it up at the Valspar Championship.

Will Zalatoris

My bet: +4500
Best available odds:

The more difficult the conditions get, the more likely I am to consider Will Zalatoris. For that reason, I’m less concerned about his tee time draw this week, as Zalatoris is one of the premier flushers on tour. With his flighted ball-striking and proven experience scrambling in difficult conditions, he is well-equipped to withstand these gusting winds.

We get a nice discount on Zalatoris as an overreaction to the wave splits. So if he can tread water and make it to the weekend in a good position, he’ll have some unfinished business to overcome after letting The Players slip away last week. He’s now posted 10 consecutive top-45 finishes and is a player to watch in the major futures markets if his short game begins to turn a corner.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My bet: +7000
Best available odds:

One player I am going out of my way to get exposure to in the “good” tee time wave is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. If I could draw up one course to suit his game best, it would have to be a design like the Copperhead Course. It caters to his strengths of Driving Accuracy, mid-iron approach play, reliable scrambling under challenging conditions, and Bermuda putting.

Bezuidenhout has looked good in challenging conditions to start this season, posting his best finishes at the WM Phoenix Open (T4) and Arnold Palmer Invitational (T19). He has a strong history at the Valspar Championship as well, finishing T9 at this event last year.

Viktor Hovland

My bet: +8000
Best available odds:

I don’t have much analysis to share on this bet. I was marking this as a potential buy-low spot for Hovland when he opened this week at 55-1 odds. Naturally, I could not resist pulling the trigger when his odds drifted further after drawing the “bad” wave.

Three consecutive missed cuts are concerning for a player of Hovland’s caliber. But in his defense, he has exclusively played in signature events to start his season. Some lighter competition at the Valspar Championship may do his confidence some good.

He continues to improve his ball striking week after week. As poor as his short game may be, he’s always managed to surprise us with his scrambling in major championships when conditions are most difficult.

Nicolai Hojgaard

My bet: +9000
Best available odds:

Entering this week in great ball-striking form and drawing the “good” tee time wave, I was surprised to see Nicolai’s odds did not take a dip Tuesday afternoon after the tee times were released.

The 2023 Ryder Cupper is no stranger to big moments, picking up three wins on the DP World Tour in his young career. Though making his Valspar Championship debut, I have high hopes for him this week. His two top-20 finishes over his last three starts are starting to build a compelling case for a roster spot in Bethpage this fall.

Andrew Novak

My bet: +15000
Best available odds:

It’s been an odd start to the year for Andrew Novak. He’s played his best golf on the West Coast swing so far, seemingly regressing on more familiar Bermuda setups in this Florida stretch of the schedule. I believe he’s due for some positive regression in Florida, especially if he can channel the same strengths of scrambling in windy conditions that have drawn him three top-15 finishes across Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. Novak has a solid history at the Copperhead Course, finishing top 30 in each of his last two trips here.

Danny Willett

My bet: +50000
Best available odds:

In an event where Peter Malnati is your defending champion, it doesn’t seem farfetched to picture former Masters champion Danny Willett coming away with the title in 2025. Despite the giant odds, Willett’s game is not entirely lost. He’s only three starts removed from a top-10 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Like many other European players on the PGA Tour, Willett’s game is built to withstand these gusting Florida winds. He ranks top 20 in SG: TOT (Florida Swing) over the last 36 rounds.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

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Joe Highsmith

My bet: +6000
Best available odds:

Already proving he can go low in difficult Florida conditions, the Cognizant Classic champion has remained in great ball-striking form since picking up his first PGA Tour win a few weeks ago. While I think the outright market has overreacted to the tee time splits, there is a distinct advantage on Thursday alone for players who tee off early before the winds pick up. So, I’ve built my whole FRL card around players with morning tee times.

Nicolai Hojgaard

My bet: +6600
Best available odds:

One of the top-trending ball-strikers in this field, the young Dane is battle-tested in difficult, windy conditions from his time playing on the DP World Tour. While Copperhead is far from a bomber’s course, the longer players tend to have a more manageable time with the par 3s and par 5s here, taking less club into these difficult-to-hold greens.

Billy Horschel

My bet: +6600
Best available odds:

It’s surprising that Horschel hasn’t had more success at the Valspar Championship throughout his career. Like any other Florida course, he must separate with his putter alone on these familiar Bermuda greens. Horschel is a streaky ball striker and has shown flashes in one-round increments over recent weeks.

Chandler Phillips

My bet: +7500
Best available odds:

Nearly the first-round leader at The Players last week, Phillips is in a good position to keep the momentum going into the Valspar Championship’s opening round. He was a T3 finisher at this event in his debut last year, and it looks like he found something with his irons at Sawgrass last week.

Nico Echavarria

My bet: +10000
Best available odds:

Always prone to pop in windy conditions, Echavarria has played his best golf on coastal setups. His most recent win came at Accordia Golf Narashino, which is one of my favorite comp courses to Copperhead. Given his history of popping on this style of course, and the favorable weather draw, this is one of my favorite value bets available this week.

VALSPAR championship BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Nicolai Hojgaard > Rasmus Hojgaard

My bet: -105

I’m surprised to see Rasmus getting the edge in this sibling rivalry in this market. Nicolai has been the better ball striker of the two over the last month and is slightly more battle-tested, getting the nod to play on Team Europe at the 2023 Ryder Cup.

These twins are truly identical, as they look and play the same. But in a toss-up matchup, I have to side with the brother who enters in better form.

Top-20 Finish: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My bet: +320
Best available odds:

Regarding the placement market, I’m taking on less risk than with outrights and looking to focus on those who have drawn favorable tee times. Bezuidenhout checks that box and suits this course perfectly. He’ll need to turn a bit of a corner with his ball-striking to pay this one off.

Top-40 Finish: Danny Willett

My bet: +400
Best available odds:

I don’t usually bet top-40s, but I also don’t like betting players beyond 500-1 odds. So naturally, this is a bit of insurance on the longshot. Willett has finished inside the top 40 more times than not over his last 10 starts and twice over four career starts at the Valspar Championship.

ONE AND DONE

My pick: Shane Lowry

The wave splits will tilt ownership fairly dramatically towards the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, and Tom Kim this week. While it may be risky to zag in the other direction with a player like Lowry, it’s essential to take those contrarian stances occasionally to separate in your OAD pools. In this case, Lowry’s game is less impacted than most others in the tee-time wave. His game is built to thrive in challenging, windy conditions.

I would also consider playing Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, or Corey Conners in OAD if not Lowry.

Valspar Championship Bets: THE Full CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Tour golf bets. Best of luck this week with your Valspar Championship bets, and see you next Sunday for the Texas Children’s Houston Open preview. For more, follow TheLines on X.

Valspar Championship ODds: Top Favorites

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