My 2022 Valspar Championship Betting Card, Storylines, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on March 16, 2022
valspar championship bets

After a short week, the 2022 Valspar Championship is already just about upon us. The Valspar is positioned right in the middle of THE PLAYERS and WGC Match Play on the TOUR schedule, two of the biggest purses of the year. The depth of this field is not spectacular (likely for that reason), but I’m still looking forward to watching some of the best players in the world tee it up this week. Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Valspar Championship bets as well.

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MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

There is plenty of speculation of how motivated the elite players in the field will be this week, with a Wednesday start at the WGC Match Play looming. To me, I think it would be very easy for players to take the Paul Casey route, withdraw, and skip straight ahead to the Match Play if they weren’t motivated to get up for this event. Austin is so nice this time of year! It’s also a very winnable field, lacking the depth after the top of the board that we’ve been used to seeing these last couple weeks on the Florida Swing, so I expect the elite talents in this field to shine, and built my card around having exposure to at least one OWGR top-10 player.

In terms of unit allocations, it’s back to the standard 3U in to pay our 24U each for Outrights. Since I technically went 0.1U over on outrights, I balanced that out with 2.9U in Props to pay out 3U+ each, to maintain the same overall exposure. We are going for three weeks in a row with FRL after landing on McIlroy and Hoge. Those allocations will remain exactly the same (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET to talk through all my favorite 2022 Valspar Championship bets, DFS plays, and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. Hope to see you there!

Full Valspar Championship Preview

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.1 UNITS)

Justin Thomas

My Bet: +1100

Best Odds Still Available:

I knew that I was going to start my Valspar Championship bets with one of either JT, Hovland, Collin, DJ, or Xander. I oscillated between all of them as odds fluctuated throughout the week, but in the end, it seemed the market was telling us this would be a toss-up at the top between Thomas, Morikawa, and Hovland. I would have placed Thomas at single-digit odds if I were handicapping the board, so although 11-1 is much shorter than I prefer to go, it was easy to fit Thomas on the card along with the other names in the longer odds range I like this week.

Thomas has long been outspoken about his desire to stack up PGA TOUR wins, and this is a situation he should be walking into confidently with top-notch form (four top-10s in his last six starts), great course history (three top-20s in f0ur appearances), and a beatable field in what may be a lookahead week for less motivated top players.

At the 2021 Valspar Championship, Thomas was perfect from tee-to-green, gaining 13.2 strokes. That is the fourth-most strokes Thomas has ever gained tee-to-green in his entire career. Unfortunately, he paired it up with the third most strokes he’s ever lost putting (6.5), en route to a modest T13 finish. Thomas is now on a trend of gaining strokes putting every other week over his last five events, so seems due for a positive putting week this time around.

Bubba Watson

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

I was prepared to bet Bubba Watson at around 45-1 this week, so this was the first bet I placed when I saw him open at nearly double the number I expected. As I wrote about in the spotlight feature of this week’s preview, this is a certified Bubba Track, and bares plenty of similarities to the courses like Riviera CC, TPC River Highlands, and even Augusta National, at which we’ve seen him dominate consistently. Bubba is a true feel player, so I have no concerns about him getting up for this event after a shortened week of prep.

Gary Woodland

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Gary secured a permanent place in my heart after winning the 2019 US Open. He’s a guy I can root for with or without any action on him. In this case, he’s in excellent form (two T5s in his last three starts in Florida), he gets a little extra time for prep coming off THE PLAYERS MC, he returns to a course he’s won at before (back in 2011), and despite all that, gets a pretty severe discount at 80-1 odds. He’ll be a popular bet at this number, but have to  feel good about his momentum coming in.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +16000

Best Odds Still Available:

I don’t know how much longer I’ll be able to keep up this streak of betting Mito every time he’s in the field, but I don’t see how anyone is supposed to pass him up at 160-1 odds. He has unfortunately reverted back to his old ways of cringe-worthy putting these last couple weeks, but he is also back to gaining consistently from tee-to-green. If we can get a neutral putting week out of Mito, he has the tools to contend on this course.

Martin Laird

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

Laird was a climber in my model this week, rising all the way up to fifth overall. I don’t usually blindly play players off my model alone, but at 180-1 odds, it’s not much risk to take on. Like Mito, Laird has been great and consistent tee-to-green, and had intermittent spike putting weeks over his last ten starts. He has proven he can contend on a good putting week, so at these odds, that’s all you have to hope for.

FIRST ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Aaron Wise

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

This is a value bet on a player who didn’t really pop in my research, but subjectively makes sense at this price on a ball-striker’s course that has seen “team no putt” players like Keegan Bradley find success year over year.

Patton Kizzire

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s been awhile since I bet Kizzire, but right here in the FRL market is the perfect time to jump back in. I’m always interested in Kizzire on courses that level any advantage off-the-tee and instead emphasize approach and putting. Bermuda is Kizzire’s best surface, and he’s a streaky birdie maker so I love him as a FRL play.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

A streaky birdie maker at long odds, I’m happy to take a shot on Sahith here. He was the first round leader at the Sanderson Farms earlier this season (another Bermuda course where Sam Burns has won) and was a stroke off the first round lead at the WM Phoenix Open, so we know he can light it up early.

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Sebastian Munoz has withdrawn from this event, so naturally I needed to go to his official understudy. Svensson makes birdies in bunches, and just needs to not negate those scoring holes with bogeys on Thursday.

PROPS (2.9 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Xander Schauffele

My Bet: +130

Best Odds Still Available:

I gave Xander a long thought as an outright, but as is always the case when considering a bet on Xander, just couldn’t convince myself of him winning. I definitely did not expect to see plus odds on Xander for T20 against this field, and although this will be his debut, I like that he’s had some extra rest leaving THE PLAYERS early, and think his game should suit this course perfectly.

Top-20 Finish: Matthias Schwab

My Bet: +450

Best Odds Still Available:

Schwab is in great form entering this week, with back-to-back T7 finishes at the Honda Classic and Puerto Rico Open; he’s made the cut in six straight TOUR starts now. Par-5 Scoring will be paramount this week and he ranks 15th in that stat over the last 36 rounds. Looking at the rolling reports, Schwab is #1 in Par-5 Scoring over the last 8 rounds, and #2 over the last 12 rounds, so he’s trending in the right direction going into this event.

Top-20 Finish: Mito Pereira

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

Mito is 5-1 odds to finish in the top-20 on the assumption that he will continue to struggle on the greens. This is a bet that Mito can tap into the putting form that saw him gain 1+ strokes on the greens in six consecutive tournaments from November to February.

Top-30 Finish: Bill Haas

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

This is an ugly bet, and very far from a conviction play, but 5-1 odds for a top-30 is very long, and Haas has proven on this course and in recent weeks that he has the top-30 potential. He finished T25 at the Honda Classic two starts ago and has three top-15 finishes over his last five Valspar Championship appearances.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Justin Thomas

I have technically already used Justin Thomas this year in OAD at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, however I am tracking each of my OAD picks in the Mayo Cup in these articles, which officially kicked off the following week at the Sony Open.

I pictured myself using Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship or US Open, but this turned out to be a pretty ideal OAD spot for JT. He’s the favorite in a field that is not particularly imposing, and it suits his game of shot-shaping off-the-tee and elite iron + short game play.

It was hard to settle on a single OAD play this week, but if not Thomas, I also like Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, Jason Kokrak, and Abraham Ancer. It’s a risk to use one of the elite-tier players at a lower-purse event like the Valspar with potential “look-ahead” concerns, but I do expect the top players to find repeatable success at this event, and at depressed ownership.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

CLOSING THOUGHTS AND STORYLINES

More often than not in non-Major tournaments, you’ll find me taking the field of players 40-1 or longer over the favorites if given the option. For some reason, I’m feeling dead set on an elite player at the top of the board winning this week at the Valspar Championship, and have constructed my betting card and DFS lineups to reflect that stance. It’s now been a full calendar year since Justin Thomas has won a PGA TOUR event, and I’m going on a limb to say that streak will end this Sunday.

Major Lookahead

In the next three months, players are gearing up to play The Masters, the PGA Championship, and the US Open. With the PGA and US Open on uncharacteristically shorter courses this year, Innisbrook will actually present one of the better simulations of difficult, positional golf ahead of major season. Since many of the top players in this field were shorted the opportunity to test their games at THE PLAYERS, I believe the top names are committed to this field to simulate those difficult conditions as they continue to improve form leading into the Majors.

Short Week

It’s a quick bounce back after THE PLAYERS, and a tough emotional hurdle to go from vying for a $3.6M winning check to a more modest $1.4M, which is about what Paul Casey made for his third place finish last week. How will Keegan Bradley respond after contending in high pressure moments for five days? Is there an advantage to players who missed the cut and hopped over to Palm Harbor on Friday or Saturday? We’ll find out!

Soft Conditions

With all the rain Florida has gotten, I expect the course to soften up, which should make scoring easier and reward the best iron players. I’m expecting a winning core in the -14 to -15 range this week, but there’s a good angle to differentiate DFS lineup construction if you believe scoring conditions will be much easier or more difficult. Good luck with your Valspar Championship bets!

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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