2024 Valero Texas Open Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC San Antonio

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
valero texas open odds

Another week of PGA TOUR action brings us to TPC San Antonio with the 2024 Valero Texas Open. Compare Valero Texas Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Jordan Spieth project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Just one week stands between us and the Masters. A final opportunity to qualify, or tune up their form, for the year’s first major spurred a wide list of talented PGA TOUR players to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. This year’s event includes plenty of star power in the Lone Star State and sets up to be a great precursor to Masters Week.

In short, TPC San Antonio serves as a second-shot course for those not erratic off the tee. It rewards top-tier iron players in trending tee-to-green form. Here’s a full look at everything to expect from Valero Texas Open odds.

2024 valero TEXAS OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Here are the top five favorites for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. Compare odds across sportsbooks for the entire field at the bottom of this post.

PGA Tour 2024 Valero Texas Open

Tournament Winner

Denny McCarthy

Denny McCarthy

Akshay Bhatia

Akshay Bhatia

Odds updated Apr 7th, 2024, 5:00 pm

Valero Texas Open ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

A shakeup to the Texas Swing with the removal of match play in Austin brought on a few surprises. Most notable, the strength of field dramatically improved for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. In the final week of prep before the Masters, many of the TOUR’s best are looking to stay sharp with one last competitive tournament.

The Valero Texas Open field features 11 OWGR top-30 players, headlined by Rory McIlroy, Brian Harman, Ludvig Åberg, and Max Homa.

The “lookahead” narrative may be a bit overblown here, as known Augusta-obsessive Jordan Spieth was not deterred from taking this event down in 2021. Certain players – namely Rory and Brooks Koepka – use this event as a canvas to work on shots in a tournament atmosphere ahead of the first major. I have no interest in McIlroy this week and will look to actively bet against him in head-to-head markets. He missed the cut in his Valero Texas Open debut here in 2023.

Notable debutants include Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick. It’ll be interesting to see whether each of these top talents are here to tune up for one last competitive go-around before the Masters or if they are locked in to treat this week like any other on TOUR.

Corey Conners returns to defend his title after picking up his second Valero Texas Open win over the last four years. In addition to Conners, the list of past champions returning includes JJ Spaun, Charley Hoffman, Andrew Landry, Jimmy Walker, Martin Laird, and Speith.

Masters odds are available to bet on now. This week can often be a good opportunity to jump on Masters futures for potential late qualifiers, such as Ricky Fowler.

INTRODUCTION TO THE OAKS COURSE AT TPC SAN ANTONIO

The Valero Texas Open found a home on the schedule as the final event before the Masters. That, in turn, created a dichotomy between elite players looking for a final tune-up and giving the rest of the field a shot at making the first major of the year.

Greg Norman designed the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and brought on Sergio Garcia in a consulting role. Garcia’s involvement was presumably to attract the game’s best in lieu of skipping for Masters prep. Ironically, Garcia himself only played once before departing for LIV, missing the cut in 2018. This will be the 14th time the Oaks Course hosts the Valero Texas Open since slotting in for La Cantera Golf Club in 2010.

This is my least favorite course on the PGA TOUR. TPC San Antonio is a ho-hum, nondescript assortment of holes. It lacks a unique identity or defining characteristics. As a 7,438-yard par-72, it features the standard breakout of 10 par-4s, four par-5s, and four par-3s. It ranks in the top 10 longest courses on the TOUR each year and features some of the least penal rough around fairways and greens. As advertised, the Oaks Course features a heavy tree lining, but it relies on the wind and firm conditions as its best defense.

The elements determined scoring at TPC San Antonio over the years. Some years saw soft receptive conditions from heavy rainfall (2019), while others were impacted by high winds (2022). San Antonio experienced an uncharacteristically hot February and March this year, so we should expect the course to play firmer and more difficult this year, with a projected winning score closer to the -12 to -14 range.

For TPC San Antonio course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Valero Texas Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Valero Texas Open odds page.

Editor’s Note

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Players who found the most consistent success at the Valero Texas Open tend to fit the mold of accurate ball-strikers with a reliable short game and familiarity in Texas winds. In firm conditions, wayward drives are prone to land among in the trees. Driving accuracy has proven more important than distance, despite what the scorecard yardage may suggest.

Looking at recent course history, seven players have multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Charley Hoffman, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Lucas Glover, and Byeong Hun An.

Thirteen players made the cut in each appearance over the last five years (min. three starts): Corey Conners, Lucas Glover, Jordan Spieth, Beau Hossler, Scott Stallings, Joel Dahmen, Aaron Baddeley, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Streelman, Lanto Griffin, Ben Martin, Padraig Harrington, and Brandt Snedeker.

Charley Hoffman

Some call the Valero Texas Open the Charley Hoffman Open. Over the last seven years, Hoffman has a win and two runner-up finishes. Hoffman played this event every year since 2006. 2022 marked his first career MC over 16 career starts, however, he bounced back with a T22 in 2023. A runner-up finish earlier this season at the WM Phoenix Open suggests there’s still plenty left in the tank for this course horse.

The rest of the top 10 in terms of SG: TOT at the Valero Texas Texas Open after Hoffman are Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Ryan Moore, Aaron Baddeley, and Lucas Glover. It’s interesting to note the number of players with below-average distance found success on this long setup.

Course Comps

I struggle to find a perfect comp course for TPC San Antonio, which only adds to the list of reasons why I fail to get excited about this event. Given the combination of wind exposure, length hidden in long par 5s, and a fairly lackluster strength of field year-over-year, I actually like Corales Golf Course quite a bit as far as comp courses go.

Silverado Resort & Spa, host of the Fortinet Championship, is another interesting comp course. It shares length, tree-lined hazards, and lack of penal rough despite tight fairways. Detroit Golf Club, PGA National, and TPC Twin Cities all require a similar driver-heavy game plan with emphasis on approach play across a mix of risk/reward holes.

With unique aspects of firm conditions and gusting winds, I’m looking across all other Texas venues on TOUR for reference. Notably, I’m looking to last week’s venue, Memorial Park, but I am also including TPC Craig Ranch, Colonial CC, and GC of Houston.

The top 10 players SG: TOT across these comp courses are Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Corey Conners, Rory McIlroy, Nicolai Hojgaard, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa, Lee Hodges, and Callum Tarren.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2024 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDs

  • SG: APP
  • Good Drives Gained / Fairways Gained
  • SG: ARG / Sand Saves Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par-5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting (L36, slow greens)
  • SG: TOT (High Winds)
  • Course & Comp Course History

Strokes Gained numbers would suggest that TPC San Antonio is a bonafide second-shot course. It could serve as an Approach and Around-The-Green contest as long as players avoid taking themselves out of position on tee shots. With that in mind, I’m leaning more heavily on Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance over SG: OTT in order to weed out the erratic drivers. There are 11 players who rank top-40 in all three categories: Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, Ryan Palmer, Doug Ghim, Tyler Duncan, Akshay Bhatia, Joel Dahmen, Carson Young, and Ben Silverman.

Approach

Approach play is important every week, but precise irons gain even more importance at TPC San Antonio. With a balanced distribution of approach shots at this event, I’m bypassing any specific proximity ranges in my modeling and instead placing a heavier emphasis on SG: APP. The top 10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Chez Reavie, Corey Conners, Ryan Moore, Lucas Glover, Sam Ryder, Erik van Rooyen, Collin Morikawa, Davis Thompson, Joel Dahmen, and Scott Stallings.

Short Game

With players hitting greens in regulation well below TOUR average, we must factor in short-game stats. Ten players rank inside the top 40 in SG: ARG, Scrambling, and Sand Saves Gained: Aaron Baddeley, Hideki Matsuyama, Bud Cauley, Padraig Harrington, SH Kim, Joe Highsmith, Lucas Glover, Jordan Spieth, Brendon Todd, and Maverick McNealy.

The ideal player for this week should excel in Comp Course History, Driving Accuracy, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and Bogey Avoidance. Just 10 players in this week’s field rate out above average in each of those categories: Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai, Brian Harman, Keith Mitchell, Bud Cauley, Ryan Moore, Andrew Putnam, and Davis Thompson.

Correlation And TPC San Antonio

Looking at correlation charts this week, we see a notable dip in the importance of Par-4: 450-500 and Par-3 Scoring relative to the TOUR average. Instead, SG: APP, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Good Drives Gained make the greatest jumps. Driving Distance, Prox 200+, and 3-Putt Avoidance are among the least correlated stats with success.

Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at Valero

There are 10 players in the field who rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Aaron Rai, Stephan Jaeger, Harris English, Billy Horschel, and Bud Cauley.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: TOM KIM

The last time someone was forced to withdraw from THE PLAYERS due to illness, they went on to win their very next (stroke play) start. Does that make Tom Kim the 2024 version of Jon Rahm?

Three weeks ago, a 102º fever forced the young rising star to withdraw after the first round. The resolve to try and play through an illness – coupled with what we’ve already learned about Kim’s competitive edge on the latest season of Netflix’s Full Swing – tells me everything I need to know about him. In a lookahead week that carries so many question marks with the Masters looming, Kim is not in San Antonio to tune up; he came in search of his fourth PGA TOUR win since 2022.

A new Texas resident, Kim should be growing more familiar with the nuances of intermittent winds that come with Texas golf. He handles himself well in blustery conditions, finishing T6 and T2 at the Scottish Open and British Open last year.

When I look at Kim’s game, I see an all-around better version of 2022 winner JJ Spaun. Both players live in the fairways, hitting a low spinning ball off the tee that can effectively eliminate trouble on either side of the hole. Control off the tee is a huge bonus at the Oaks Course.

On a course that rewards accurate plodders like Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, and Ryan Moore with great consistency, TPC San Antonio sets up very well for Tom Kim’s game.

2024 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 Valero Texas Open odds, as well. I’ve broken the list down by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

Valero Texas Open odds

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Ludvig Åberg
Collin Morikawa
Jordan Spieth

Tier 2

Corey Conners
Brian Harman
Hideki Matsuyama
Tom Kim
Russell Henley
Tommy Fleetwood

Tier 3

Harris English
Aaron Rai
Erik van Rooyen
Eric Cole
Byeong Hun An
Adam Scott

Tier 4

Beau Hossler
Adam Schenk
Joel Dahmen
Patrick Rodgers
Ryan Moore

Tier 5

Charley Hoffman
Sam Ryder
Matt Kuchar
Bud Cauley

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VALERO TEXAS OPEN MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my BTN model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, SG: T2G (L12), SG: ARG, and Fairways Gained, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: OTT, SG: P (L36), Bogey Avoidance, and SG: TOT (High Winds), and Par-5 Scoring.

Model Favorites

On a course that has crowned ball-striking marksman Corey Conners twice over the last four years, I’m not surprised to see Collin Morikawa jump to the No. 1 spot in my model this week. Morikawa may not lead the field in SG: Approach as we may usually expect from him in top form, but he still impressively ranks in the top 15 across SG: OTT, SG: APP, Comp Course History, and Bogey Avoidance. Looking to bounce back after a disappointing Florida swing, this profiles well as a nice get-right spot for Morikawa.

After Morikawa, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Ludvig Åberg, Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, and Brian Harman.

When Valero Texas Open Odds odds release on Monday, I’ll look to build a balanced card with exposure to top-tier favorites and some longshot fliers. Tom Kim, Ludvig Åberg, Eric Cole, and Byeong Hun An all stand out as potential value bets, depending on where odds ultimately open on Monday. Check back in later this week for more updates.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your 2024 Valero Texas Open bets!

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