Valero Texas Open Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About TPC San Antonio

Another week of PGA Tour action brings us to TPC San Antonio with the 2025 Valero Texas Open. Compare Valero Texas Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, and Patrick Cantlay are the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

Just one week stands between golf fans and the Masters. Players get a final opportunity to qualify or tune up their form for the year’s first major. That spurred a wide list of talented PGA Tour players to the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 2025 Valero Texas Open. This year’s event includes plenty of star power in the Lone Star State and is a great precursor to the Masters.

In short, TPC San Antonio serves as a second-shot course for those not erratic off the tee. It rewards top-tier iron players in trending tee-to-green form. Here’s a complete look at everything to expect from Valero Texas Open odds.

2025 valero TEXAS OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Find the top five favorites for the 2025 Valero Texas Open here when the odds open. Compare odds across sportsbooks for the entire field at the bottom of this post.

Masters odds are also available to bet on now. This week is often a good opportunity to jump on Masters futures for potential late qualifiers, such as Jake Knapp.

Valero Texas Open ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

A shakeup to the Texas swing with removing match play in Austin brought on a few surprises. Most notably, the strength of field has elevated for this non-signature event at the 2025 Valero Texas Open. In the final week of prep before the Masters, many of the tour’s best are looking to stay sharp with one last competitive tournament.

The Valero Texas Open field features nine OWGR top-30 players, headlined by Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, and Hideki Matsuyama.

The “lookahead” narrative may be overblown here, as known Augusta-obsessive Jordan Spieth was not deterred from taking this event down in 2021. Rory McIlroy has not shied away from saying in the past that he has used the Valero Texas Open as a final tune-up to practice shots he’ll need to channel in the following week at Augusta. I don’t see as much of that being a reason to fade the top players in this week’s event, however, as each could use the confidence boost that comes with winning a tour event leading up to golf’s first major.

In addition to the favorites, Keegan Bradley, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Tom Kim, and Jordan Spieth are on the list of top contenders to watch for this week.

Akshay Bhatia returns to defend his title after a titanous playoff clash with Denny McCarthy last year. The two cleared the next closest contender by nine strokes. Bhatia will make his first start since falling just short of another playoff at THE PLAYERS.

In addition to Bhatia, the list of past champions returning includes Corey Conners, J.J. Spaun, Jordan Spieth, Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker, and Martin Laird.

INTRODUCTION TO THE OAKS COURSE AT TPC SAN ANTONIO

The Valero Texas Open found a home on the schedule as the final event before the Masters. That, in turn, created a dichotomy between elite players looking for a final tune-up and giving the rest of the field a shot at making the first major of the year.

Greg Norman designed the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio and brought on Sergio Garcia in a consulting role. Garcia’s involvement was presumably to attract the game’s best in lieu of skipping for Masters prep. Ironically, Garcia only played once before departing for LIV, missing the cut in 2018. This will be the 15th time the Oaks Course hosts the Valero Texas Open since slotting in for La Cantera Golf Club in 2010.

This is my least favorite course on the PGA Tour. TPC San Antonio is a ho-hum, nondescript assortment of holes. It lacks a unique identity or defining characteristics. As a 7,438-yard par 72, it features the standard breakout of 10 par 4s, four par 5s, and four par 3s. It ranks in the top 10 longest courses on the tour each year and features some of the least penal rough around fairways and greens. As advertised, the Oaks Course features a heavy tree lining but relies on the wind and firm conditions as its best defense.

The elements determined scoring at TPC San Antonio over the years. Some years saw soft, receptive conditions from heavy rainfall (2019), while others were impacted by high winds (2022). San Antonio experienced an uncharacteristically hot February and March this year. So, we should expect the course to play firmer and more difficult this year, with a projected winning score closer to the -12 to -15 range.

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Players who found the most consistent success at the Valero Texas Open tend to fit the mold of accurate ball-strikers with a reliable short game and familiarity in Texas winds. In firm conditions, wayward drives are prone to land among the trees. Driving accuracy has proven more important than distance, despite what the scorecard yardage may suggest.

Looking at recent course history, 13 players have multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Charley Hoffman, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, Sam Stevens, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Brandt Snedeker, Zach Johnson, Chris Kirk, Ben Martin, and Adam Schenk.

Ten players made the cut in each appearance over the last five years (min. three starts): Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Beau Hossler, Si Woo Kim, Jordan Spieth, Vince Whaley, Brandt Snedeker, Lanto Griffin, Ben Martin, and Aaron Baddeley.

Charley Hoffman

Some call the Valero Texas Open the Charley Hoffman Open. Over the last eight years, Hoffman has a win and two runner-up finishes. Hoffman played this event every year since 2006. 2022 marked his first career MC, with over 16 career starts. However, he bounced back with a T22 in 2023. A T5 finisher at The American Express earlier this season suggests plenty remains left in the tank for this course horse.

The rest of the top 10 in terms of SG: TOT at the Valero Texas Texas Open after Hoffman are Jordan Spieth, Corey Conners, Sam Stevens, Denny McCarthy, Chris Kirk, Akshay Bhatia, Aaron Baddeley, Gary Woodland, and Matt Kuchar. It’s interesting to note the number of players with below-average distance found success on this long setup. Still, this list highlights a consistent trend of solid ball-strikers capable of elevating their baselines in windy conditions.

Course Comps

I struggle to find a perfect comp course for TPC San Antonio, which only adds to why I fail to get excited about this event. Given the combination of wind exposure, length hidden in long par 5s, and a relatively lackluster strength of field year-over-year, I like Corales Golf Course quite a bit as far as comp courses go.

Silverado Resort & Spa, host of the Fortinet Championship, is another interesting comp course. Despite tight fairways, it shares length, tree-lined hazards, and lack of penal rough. Detroit Golf Club, PGA National, and TPC Twin Cities require a similar driver-heavy game plan emphasizing approach play across a mix of risk/reward holes.

With unique aspects of firm conditions and gusting winds, I’m looking across all other Texas venues on tour for reference. I’m looking at last week’s venue, Memorial Park, but I am also including TPC Craig Ranch, Colonial CC, and GC of Houston.

The top 10 players SG: TOT across these comp courses are Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Sam Burns, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger, and Si Woo Kim.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2024 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDs

• SG: APP
• Good Drives Gained / Fairways Gained
• SG: ARG / Sand Saves Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par-5 Scoring
• SG: Putting (L36, slow greens)
• SG: TOT (High Winds)
• Course & Comp Course History

Strokes Gained numbers would suggest that TPC San Antonio is a bonafide second-shot course. It could serve as an Approach and Around-The-Green contest if players avoid taking themselves out of position on tee shots. With that in mind, I’m leaning more heavily on Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance over SG: OTT to weed out the erratic drivers. Seven players rank in the top 40 in all four categories of SG: APP, SG: ARG, Fairways Gained, and Bogey Avoidance: Hideki Matsuyama, Bud Cauley, Andrew Putnam, David Lipsky, Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay, and Kurt Kitayama.

Approach

Approach play is important every week, but precise irons gain even more importance at TPC San Antonio. With a balanced distribution of approach shots at this event, I’m bypassing any specific proximity ranges in my modeling and instead placing a heavier emphasis on SG: APP. The top 10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Henrik Norlander, Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Jackson Suber, Kurt Kitayama, Tommy Fleetwood, Bud Cauley, Joel Dahmen, Lee Hodges, and Gary Woodland.

Short Game

We must factor in short-game stats with players hitting greens in regulation well below tour average. Twelve players rank inside the top 40 in SG: ARG, Scrambling, and Sand Saves Gained: Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Kurt Kitayama, Michael Kim, Andrew Putnam, Harry Hall, Mac Meissner, Seamus Power, Alex Smalley, Matt Kuchar, and Taylor Moore.

The ideal player for this week should excel in Comp Course History, Driving Accuracy, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and Bogey Avoidance. Just 11 players in this week’s field rate out above average in each of those categories: Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Daniel Berger, Corey Conners, Patrick Cantlay, Bud Cauley, Si Woo Kim, Brian Harman, Alex Smalley, and Andrew Putnam.

Correlation And TPC San Antonio

This week’s correlation charts show a notable dip in the importance of Par-4: 450-500 and Par-3 Scoring relative to the tour average. Instead, SG: APP, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Good Drives Gained make the greatest jumps. Driving Distance, Prox 200+, and 3-Putt Avoidance are among the least correlated stats with success.

Nine players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Bud Cauley, Daniel Berger, Si Woo Kim, Alex Smalley, and Michael Kim.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Daniel berger

Daniel Berger’s 2025 renaissance season continues to build momentum. He closed the Florida swing with three consecutive top-25 finishes. That now marks seven top-25 finishes over his last nine starts as he continues to put any questions about rust or lingering injuries impacting his performance to rest.

Already a winner in the Lone Star State at the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, the venues most severely impacted by wind seem always to bring out the best in Berger’s game. His four PGA Tour wins have come on wind-exposed venues (Pebble Beach, Colonial, TPC Southwind). That’s a promising sign heading into TPC San Antonio, where the gusting winds represent its primary defense. Top-tier ball-strikers love windy conditions, as a pure and piercing strike is required to withstand these elements. Berger ranks No. 4 in SG: TOT (Windy Conditions), and No. 13 in the field in SG: Ball Striking.

We may see a bit of a discount on Berger’s price when odds release due to his lack of course history (missing the cut in his first two appearances). I’m willing to look past that, however. It’s been six years since Berger’s last appearance here. Ranking No. 2 overall in my model with top-10 ranks in Recent Form, SG: T2G, Bogey Avoidance, and SG: ARG, Berger is a flusher who enters this week with very few question marks surrounding the state of his game. He’ll be a fixture on my betting card this week.

2025 VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2025 Valero Texas Open odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Ludvig Aberg

Tier 2

Corey Conners
Daniel Berger
Jordan Spieth
Tony Finau

Tier 3

Bud Cauley
Maverick McNealy
Denny McCarthy
Akshay Bhatia
Jake Knapp
Sam Stevens

Tier 4

Lee Hodges
Alex Smalley
Harry Hall
Beau Hossler
Cameron Young
Matt Kuchar

Tier 5

Charley Hoffman
Chan Kim
Gary Woodland
Max Homa

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VALERO TEXAS OPEN MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, SG: T2G (L12), SG: ARG, and Fairways Gained, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: OTT, SG: P (L36), Bogey Avoidance, and SG: TOT (High Winds), and Par-5 Scoring.

Model Favorites

On a course that has crowned ball-striking marksman Corey Conners twice over the last four years, I’m not surprised to see Tommy Fleetwood jump to the No. 1 spot in my model this week. In his last start, Fleetwood was a non-factor at the Valspar Championship despite being the pre-tournament favorite. He still carries a streak of four consecutive top-16 finishes into this event and has a game ideally suited to attack TPC San Antonio.

After Fleetwood, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama, Bud Cauley, Corey Conners, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Lee Hodges, Si Woo Kim, and Michael Kim.

When Valero Texas Open Odds odds release on Monday, I’ll look to build a balanced card with exposure to top-tier favorites and some longshot fliers. Daniel Berger, Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNealy, and Sam Stevens all stand out as potential value bets, depending on where the odds ultimately open on Monday. Check back in later this week for more updates.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your 2025 Valero Texas Open bets!

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