2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: Valero Texas Open Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

The 2024 PGA TOUR golf season continues, with TPC San Antonio next on tap to host the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio, Texas, beginning Thursday. Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and Jordan Spieth headline among Valero Texas Open bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite picks among all the golf odds for this tourney. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

One last week of separation stands between us and the the 2024 Masters. As a golf palette cleanser, we have the 2024 Valero Texas Open on tap, with a revamped field that features more OWGR top-20 players than we’ve seen in recent years at TPC San Antonio.

A continued trend in this leg of the PGA TOUR season, TPC San Antonio should pose yet another test of all-around form. The Oaks Course – with its many oaks surrounding the fairway – rewards control off-the-tee more so than it does distance. That’s a surprising trend considering TPC San Antonio ranks top-10 in terms of total yardage on the PGA TOUR and presents an angle to find value from a betting and DFS perspective. Below, we’ll go through my final Valero Texas Open bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Valero Texas Open wagers. 

For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Valero Texas Open preview. 

VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Click on any of Valero Texas Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

HOW I BUILT MY Valero TEXAS OPEN BETTING CARD

Avoiding trouble is the name of the game at TPC San Antonio. Those who can take advantage of par-5 scoring, avoid trouble off-the-tee, and generally excel at Bogey Avoidance all fit the mold of the player profile I’m looking to hone in on this week.

As it relates to the Texas Swing, I’ve come to learn that native Texans have too much pride in mailing it in as local patrons watch and always look forward to putting on a show in front of the home crowd. Similar to last week, I looked to concentrate my betting card around players who either have local Texas ties or who have a proven history of playing well here in the week prior to The Masters.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2024 Valero Texas Open.

• Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

Valero TEXAS OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Ludvig Aberg

My Bet: +1200
Best Available Odds:

The 2023 Rookie of the Year runner-up is used to seeing PGA TOUR courses for the first time and finding success there anyway. From that standpoint, I see it as a positive that Aberg has played TPC San Antonio once before, even if he did miss the cut here in 2022 as an amateur. The Swede by-way-of Texas Tech, has ties to the surrounding area here and should expect to hear the ovation of local supporters on his side in the gallery at the Oaks Course.

Aberg’s greatest skillset is his ability to hit long drivers on an arrow, which is a distinct advantage at a setup like TPC San Antonio with its combination of length and tree trouble surrounding the fairways. With three top-10s over his last five starts, Aberg’s form is as good as any other player in this field leading into this week.

Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +2000
Best Available Odds:

A healthy Hideki is a dangerous Hideki and we’ve hardly heard a word of injury concerns from Matsuyama’s camp to start 2024. As a result, he’s stockpiled finishes of 1st, 12th, and 6th over his last three starts, showing no signs of cooling off in the week leading into The Masters.

From a ball-striking perspective, Matsuyama’s current form carries far fewer question marks than the elite players priced around him like McIlroy, Spieth, and Morikawa. Hideki ranks No. 1 in SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds and No. 12 in SG: APP. While you may expect the 2021 Masters champion to be looking ahead to Augusta, he’s played well at TPC San Antonio in prior appearances. He finished T30 in his 2021 the week prior to winning The Masters, and T15 here last year. Ranking No. 3 overall in my model this week, there’s plenty to like about Hideki’s form, course fit, and course history at the Valero Texas Open.

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Tom Kim

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

I expected Tom Kim to fall into a secondary odds tier, given his inconsistent recent form, but I was surprised to see him fall as far as he did. The Dallas resident is no stranger to Texas golf and has already put his win equity on display with three PGA TOUR wins since 2022. Each of those three prior wins came on courses that reward driving accuracy and avoiding trouble off-the-tee, which bodes well for his TPC San Antonio debut this week.

He was forced to withdraw from THE PLAYERS due to illness three weeks ago but appears back to full health this week. As someone who is motivated to stack PGA TOUR wins early and often, I have no concerns about Kim looking ahead to the Masters next week.

Valero TEXAS OPEN BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

A popular selection at the Valspar Championship, Rai rebounded well from the missed cut at Innisbrook with a T7 at the Houston Open last week. He gained across all four Strokes Gained categories in his last start and is poised well to attack TPC San Antonio if he can keep that momentum going.

Brendon Todd

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

With excellent control off the tee, great long iron play, spike putting upside, and a proven track record at the Valero Texas Open that includes two top-10 finishes over six career starts, there’s plenty to like about Todd’s chances to go low at TPC San Antonio this Thursday.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

The Oklahoma State graduate is plenty familiar with playing in this part of the country and continues to demonstrate great ball-striking form since picking up his first career PGA TOUR win at the Cognizant Classic.

Rickie Fowler

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

Fowler’s drift down the odds board has more to do with his inconsistency in piecing four solid rounds together in one tournament than anything else. I’m not saying I love his prospects to contend this week, but there’s no question he has the talent to spike for a low round on a course he finished top-10 at last year.

JJ Spaun

My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:

Gaining over 6 strokes on approach last week, the 2022 Valero Texas Open champ might just be peaking at the right time as he returns to this comfort course. In addition to the spike approach play he showed last week, Spaun also suits this course with his accuracy off the tee and streaky putting upside.

Valero TEXAS OPEN BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Ludvig Aberg > Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +105

I could no be any more out on Rory McIlroy at the Valero Texas Open. There is no question he has Augusta National squarely on his mind this week, as evidenced by him spending Monday and Tuesday on the grounds at Augusta and not TPC San Antonio. There were questions about his focus on the Valero Texas Open when he made his debut here last year, which ultimately led to a Missed Cut and an early return trip back to Augusta. Beyond the look-ahead factor, I just don’t see TPC San Antonio as a great fit for Rory’s game, as this course has mitigated any advantage from bombers.

On the flip side, Aberg profiles as a much safer fit for the course, given his strengths in driving accuracy and all-around improved form leading in.

Top-20 Finish: Tom Kim

My Bet: +250
Best Available Odds:

There may be some injury concern factored into Kim’s price this week, but reports on the grounds at TPC San Antonio all look to indicate he’s made a full recovery since withdrawing from THE PLAYERS. Control is the name of the game for Kim, and his strengths in Bogey Avoidance should lead a clear path to a top-20 finish against a Valero Texas Open field that lacks depth.

Top-20 Finish: Ryan Moore

My Bet: +375
Best Available Odds:

The No. 1 player in terms of Driving Accuracy and SG: APP over the last 36 rounds, Moore is quietly trending into a renaissance 2024 campaign. I don’t expect any signs of stopping at the Valero Texas Open either, as he ranks top-10 inn Course History with three career top-10s over seven prior appearances.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

I haven’t used Matsuyama in OAD yet, and it seems to me that the earlier you can deploy him before injuries begin to linger again, the better. With three consecutive top-12 finishes leading in, Matsuyama is in red-hot form and has a good track record at the Valero Texas Open, highlighted by a T15 here last year.

If not Matsuyama, I would also consider playing Ludvig Aberg, Jordan Spieth, or Tom Kim in OAD.

VALERO TEXAS OPEN: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Valero Texas Open bets, and see you next Sunday for The Masters tournament preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.