PGA TOUR Golf Bets: Valero Texas Open Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

The 2025 PGA Tour golf season continues, with TPC San Antonio next on tap to host the Valero Texas Open. Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, and Corey Conners headline the field among Valero Texas Open bets this week. John Haslbauer provides his favorite picks among all the golf odds for this tourney. Below, you’ll find each player’s best odds across betting sites.

One last week of separation stands between us and the the 2025 Masters. As a golf palette cleanser, we have the 2025 Valero Texas Open. It will host a revamped field that features more OWGR top-20 players than we’ve seen in recent years at TPC San Antonio.

A continued trend in this leg of the PGA Tour season, TPC San Antonio should pose yet another test of all-around form. With its many oaks surrounding the fairway, the Oaks Course rewards control off the tee more than distance. That’s a surprising trend, considering TPC San Antonio ranks in the top 10 in total yardage on TOUR. It also presents an angle from which to find value from a betting and DFS perspective. Below, we’ll go through my final Valero Texas Open bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Valero Texas Open wagers. 

For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Valero Texas Open preview. 

Click on any Valero Texas Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

HOW I BUILT MY Valero TEXAS OPEN BETTING CARD

Avoiding trouble is the name of the game at TPC San Antonio. Those who can take advantage of par-5 scoring, avoid trouble off the tee, and generally excel at Bogey Avoidance fit the mold of the player profile I’m looking to hone in on.

Regarding the Texas swing, I’ve learned that native Texans have too much pride to mail it in as local patrons watch. They always look forward to putting on a show in front of the home crowd. Like last week, I focused my betting card on players who either have local Texas ties or have a proven history of playing well here in the week before the Masters.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2025 Valero Texas Open.

• Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

Valero TEXAS OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Jordan Spieth

My Bet: +2800
Best Available Odds:

I’m not used to seeing a “good” number on Spieth at one of his tried and true courses. But he’s managed to fly under the radar thus far. Whether it be here, Colonial, or Augusta, we know Spieth has a sticky history on courses that suit his eye regardless of form. In the case of TPC San Antonio, Spieth has great memories with a win and three additional top-10 finishes over his last six trips.

He’ll come to the Valero Texas Open fresh off his best approach performance in over two years, gaining over eight strokes at the Valspar Championship. In true Spieth fashion, he has sporadically popped in different strokes gained categories weekly, but in this Texas homecoming, the Valero Texas Open presents an excellent opportunity to piece it all together.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +2800
Best Available Odds:

There is no reason why Bradley should not perform well on a “Corey Conners” course. I’m drawn to the discounted version of Conners where he picked up each of his first two career TOUR wins. Like Conners, Bradley remains automatic with his ball striking and total driving, gaining in each category at every start in 2025. TPC San Antonio rewards players with plus distance who can keep the ball in play, which is ideal for a player like Bradley.

With eight top-20 finishes over his last 10 starts and two career top-10 finishes at the Valero Texas Open, Bradley is deservedly one of the top favorites in the field this week.

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Daniel Berger

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

We’ll look to go back-to-back on featured spotlight winners this week with Daniel Berger. He’s proven at his best in windy conditions, with each of his first four career TOUR wins coming on wind-exposed venues.

Berger has fully returned to form in 2025. He’s now posted five consecutive top-25 finishes with a pair of runner-ups over his last 10 starts. It’s encouraging to see Berger continue to gain strokes in all four strokes gained categories throughout this hot stretch, and we know he’s reliable to keep the ball in play off-the-tee (top-10 in Driving Accuracy and SG: Ball Striking).

Alex Smalley

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

A consistent popper in my model over the last month, Smalley has turned a corner this season, rounding out all facets of his game from tee to green. Like Berger, Smalley has proven to elevate his game in windy conditions. He recently finished in the top 15 at the Sony Open, Mexico Open, and THE PLAYERS Championship. With six top-20s over his last nine starts, Smalley seems due for a breakout at TPC San Antonio this week.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

TCU’s Tom Hoge should embrace this trip back to the Texas swing. Hoge has had his fair share of success at the Valero Texas Open, posting a pair of top-12 finishes here over his last five appearances. He’ll come in hot off of a career-best 10 strokes gained on approach at THE PLAYERS in his latest start. Ranking No. 3 in SG: APP in this field, Hoge is fully capable of following the Corey Conners model and ball-striking his way to victory at the Valero Texas Open.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

Like my process with Viktor Hovland at the Valspar Championship, I’m comfortable betting on talent without form in non-signature events where the competition is more diluted. Young is still searching for the form that’s landed him 13 career top-five finishes since 2022. But in theory, TPC San Antonio should accentuate his creative shot-making skillsets. In that regard, Young enters with a similar profile to Akshay Bhatia before his 2024 Valero Texas Open win.

Joel Dahmen

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

Fresh off a top-20 finish in Houston, I like Joel Dahmen’s fit across the Texas swing. He’s at his best when facing long and windy golf courses. Dahmen ranks in the top 10 across the key categories of SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, SG: T2G, and Driving Accuracy. His ability to contend this week will come down to the putter, which heated up for him at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last week.

Valero TEXAS OPEN BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Bud Cauley

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

Arguably the hottest player in the field this week, Cauley has all the momentum leading into the opening round at TPC San Antonio. He’s managed to spike with his approach play and putting, the two prerequisites for a hot start at this course.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

It’s never a bad idea to consider Tom Hoge for FRL. He got us home in the first event of the season, pacing the field at the Sentry. And he’s had his fair share of low rounds at TPC San Antonio over the last five years.

Alex Smalley

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

A very reliable ball-striker, my concerns with Alex Smalley only lie in his ability to close golf tournaments. That makes him a fairly regular FRL consideration for me, especially on a course like TPC San Antonio, which rewards in-form ball-strikers and birdie-makers.

Justin Rose

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Justin Rose has flown under the radar this week but still has a reputation for going low. That’s especially true in April, as he’s paced the field to open the Masters multiple times in his career. Rose will make his first start at the Valero Texas Open in over a decade but is in good form, with two top-10s over his last four starts.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

Like Smalley, Young’s game looks like a great fit on paper for TPC San Antonio, though concerns over his ability to close a tournament remain. Young’s distance will create ample opportunities for birdies, especially if he can keep the putter hot.

Valero TEXAS OPEN BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Tom Hoge > Eric Cole

My Bet: +105

This is, in my opinion, a very poor course fit for a player like Eric Cole, whose most significant weakness is his driving skills. He is typically best suited to gain on approach with shorter irons and wedges. At TPC San Antonio, I expect the trouble surrounding the fairways and greater emphasis on long iron approaches to favor Tom Hoge’s game. The results thus far would back that up as well, as Hoge has the edge in course history.

Top-20 Finish: Gary Woodland

My Bet: +240
Best Available Odds:

Fresh off a blazing finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, Woodland is among the trendiest players in the Valero Texas Open. He has proven to suit this course well, with top-10 finishes in his last two appearances.

Top-20 Finish: Joel Dahmen

My Bet: +450
Best Available Odds:

Joel Dahmen’s top-20 finishes have worked well for us this season, so we’ll return to the well here. His odds do not seem to have adjusted for his improved recent form. He continues to rate out as an elite ball-striker in this field, an ideal recipe for making a top-20 push.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Daniel Berger

There are many options to choose from in One And Done this week. Corey Conners — a two-time winner in the best form of his career — is the sensible choice, ownership aside. However, hitching your wagon to a chalky Conners is not always the best strategy. Instead, I’ll side with Daniel Berger, who profiles similarly as a consistent ball-striker and strong total driver.

If you’d prefer to stay away from Berger, I would also consider playing Jordan Spieth, Corey Conners, or Tom Kim in OAD.

VALERO TEXAS OPEN: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Valero Texas Open bets, and see you next Sunday for The Masters tournament preview.

Valero Texas open ODds

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