My 2022 Valero Texas Open Betting Card & Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on March 30, 2022
valero texas open bets

The last event standing between us and the Masters is finally here. We gear up with the 2022 Valero Texas Open and corresponding bets.

It’s an easy lookahead spot for those already Masters-qualified, but Jordan Spieth showed us last year that it’s not the worst thing to enter a major off the momentum of a PGA TOUR win. While this isn’t my favorite event of the year, there’s enough firepower in the field and palatable values on the betting board to hold my attention.

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Valero Texas Open bets as well.

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MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY VALERO TEXAS OPEN BETS

It’s not easy to pinpoint exactly the type of player who’s going to perform well at the Valero Texas Open. In theory, a near 7,500-yard treelined course should favor players who are strong in terms of SG: OTT and Driving Distance.

For some reason, however, middling fairway finders off the tee like Kevin Streelman, Brandt Snedeker, Corey Conners and Chris Kirk have found the most repeated success.

So without a clear, sensible profile to chase this week, I elected to spread my exposure across a longer list of names and start my outright card no shorter than 40-to-1 odds. Overall, I’m looking for players in good recent form who have proven result in the surrounding Texas area and excel on Approach and Around The Green.

I used the usual standard structure for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+). We’ll bump things up a notch next week at the Masters.

I’ll be back in TheLines’ Discord golf channel Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET to talk through all my favorite 2022 Valero Texas Open bets, DFS plays and final thoughts for this week in addition to everything covered here. Hope to see you there!

Full Valero Texas Open preview

VALERO TEXAS OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Tony Finau

My Bet: +4000

Best Odds Still Available:

Truth be told, I’m not in love with Tony Finau this week. But as mediocre as he’s looked since picking up his win at The Northern Ttrust, 40-to-1 odds are just too long to pass up on a player with his skillset who has a T3 under his belt at this event. Chris Kirk and Gary Woodland make sense on this course, but I just couldn’t justify playing them at shorter odds than Finau.

Maverick McNealy

My Bet: +4000

Best Odds Still Available:

My Spotlight player of the week comes in at a decent value for the Valero Texas Open, floating around the 35- to 40-to-1 odds range. He has gained across all four major SG categories over his last 10 rounds. I’ll always look to target well-rounded players in an event like this. McNealy’s best career finish came with a T2 at the Fortinet Championship to kick off the 2022 season, an encouraging sign heading into the TPC San Antonio which bears plenty of similarities to Silverado.

Adam Hadwin

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Hadwin is a pure model play for me this week. He rated out second only to Hideki Matsuyama, thanks to top-10 ranks in SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, GIRs Gained, SG: ARG and SG: P (Bermuda). The recent results back up those strong numbers as well. He enters with back-to-back top-10 finishes at THE PLAYERS and the Valspar. A course that values Approach, Short Game and Bermuda Putting is right up Hadwin’s alley, so I like this price if he can keep the momentum going.

Jhonattan Vegas

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

Jhonattan Vegas’ mediocre course history has probably kept him from drifting to shorter odds. But in theory, he seems due for some positive regression, given how his skillsets line up for TPC San Antonio. Vegas ranks 12th in my model this week, top-20 in the key stats of SG: APP, Par-4 Scoring, GIRs Gained, Opportunities Gained, Bermuda Putting, SG: T2G and SG: BS. 

Luke List

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

My knee-jerk reaction to seeing List pop up fourth in the model was to ignore it, given how often that has been the case without any notable results. But then, I remembered he won the Farmers Insurance Open four starts ago, and quickly realized that 60-to-1 odds are well worth a bet. There’s an incredibly high likelihood he bleeds strokes on the greens, but on the off chance he doesn’t, we know he has the T2G tools to contend here.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available:

Let’s consult the Mito Pereira flowchart:

Is Mito Pereira in the field?

Is ball striking important?

If yes to both, we bet Mito Pereira.

Kevin Chappell

My Bet: +22500

Best Odds Still Available:

I view Kevin Chappell as a discounted Charley Hoffman this week, and although neither are exactly scorching the TOUR with their current form, Chappell gets the clear edge coming off a T15 at the Corales Championship. Chappell loves TPC San Antonio and has a win, two top fives and another T15 on his resume through eight career starts. We rarely see that combination of great course history and solid recent form in the 200-to-1 odds range. This was an easy add to round out the card.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Charley Hoffman

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

You can’t just ignore this man at the Charley Hoffman Open. It’s hard for me to blindly chase course history when it’s factored so heavily into outright odds, but Bet365 was gracious enough to offer this boost to 100-to-1 odds, so I’m in.

David Lipsky

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m chasing the good vibes narrative with Lipsky, who’s won on the same grounds at TPC San Antonio on the Korn Ferry Tour (it was across the road at the Pete Dye Course on property but the vibes still translate). Lipsky also carries some positive momentum coming off of a top-10 finish at Corales last week.

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

NeSmith cashed as first-round leader at the 2021 WM Phoenix Open, so we know he’s capable of jumping off to a hot start. He’s now coming off a career best T3 finish at the Valspar Championship, so here’s hoping he can continue to ride that hot hand.

JJ Spaun

My Bet: +12000

Best Odds Still Available:

By rule, JJ Spaun is first understudy as the FRL auto-bet whenever Sebastian Munoz is not in the field. Spaun sneakily ranks 11th in SG: TOT over the last 50 rounds in this field. He finds himself trending up at the right time leading into this event.

Kevin Chappell

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

Kevin Chappell is my favorite FRL value this week. His course history at the Valero Texas Open is second to only Hoffman, and the game looks to be in fine shape coming off of a T15.

PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Rory McIlroy

My Bet: +110

Best Odds Still Available:

The trend of betting the tournament favorite to finish top 10 at plus odds continues to pay dividends this year. I’m not afraid to go to the prohibitive favorite once again this week in Rory McIlroy. Sure, Augusta is firmly on his mind, but there’s not a ton of competition at the top of this board to have me worried about a T10 finish.

Top-30 Finish: Nate Lashley

My Bet: +440

Best Odds Still Available:

This is a pure value bet for me on Lashley who is sure to find himself in plenty of my DFS lineups this week. Lashley rides in to San Antonio with three consecutive T30 finishes,. and profiles well for what this course demands.

Top-20 Finish: David Lipsky

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

Lipsky has finished top 25 in seven of his first 18 PGA TOUR starts. He rates out well for the skillsets needed at TPC San Antonio as he makes his TOUR debut here this week. 

Top-20 Finish: Kevin Chappell

My Bet: +700

Best Odds Still Available:

I did not think I’d have this much Kevin Chappell exposure at the start of the week, but here we are. Chappell is a course horse at TPC San Antonio, and I see higher upside in him than the 7-to-1 odds would suggest. 

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Jhonattan Vegas

It’s another uncomfortable week for One and Done. It’s not worth using McIlroy, Spieth, Finau, or Matsuyama at the top of the board in this event. Conners and Kirk will be chalk selections, and I’ve already used my two favorite value bets this week in McNealy and Hadwin. So by process of elimination, that leaves us with Jhonattan Vegas.

It’s surprising that Vegas doesn’t have better results at this event, given his long-term profile as a ball striker with distance. I think he’s due to make a T10 push at depressed ownership, and I wouldn’t expect to see him as short as the 50-to-1 odds range for many other tournaments this year.

If not Vegas, I would also consider McNealy, Hoffman, or Woodland.

VALERO TEXAS OPEN BETS

  That’ll do it for the Valero Texas Open bets. Best of luck this week, see you at the Masters! 

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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