USA Vs. Netherlands: 2022 World Cup Round of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on November 30, 2022 - Last Updated on December 3, 2022
Netherlands vs. USA odds

The 2022 FIFA World Cup has reached the round of 16. One high-profile match pits the Netherlands, winners of Group A, against the United States, runners-up in Group B. The game takes place at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 3, televised by FOX and Telemundo in the US. What do USA vs. Netherlands odds have to say about each team’s chance of advancing?

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” props.   

USA Vs. Netherlands Odds

To Advance/To Qualify

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
USA
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+175
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+192
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+155
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+200
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+170
Netherlands
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-215
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-240
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-225
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-250
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-240

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USA Team Preview

All hail Captain America. After Christian Pulisic’s bravery was on show against Iran, his goal coupled with England’s demolition of Wales that same evening was enough to see the U.S. Men’s National Team in the Round of 16.

An advance that on the balance of 270 World Cup minutes you would have to say was deserved. After failing to earn a win in their opening two encounters, one wondered with their relative misfortune would trickle through to Tuesday’s winner-or-go-home clash.

Thankfully for Gregg Berhalter it was only good fortune that bestowed the USA; although, Pulisic paid for his bravery with an injury-enforced substitution. It is fair to say that such pain though was worth every cent.

A victory that was celebrated as much in Qatar as it was in the offices and bars back home, and although there is a slight doubt over whether Pulisic will be fit to feature on Saturday, he himself posted on social media he is fit and raring to go.

Of course, the Chelsea forward will still need to convince his medical team before his name is secure on the teamsheet. If a lack of fitness does get the better of him, it will certainly be a hammer blow before kickoff. 

However, this unit of players has already shown that they have the heart and desire to deal with all that is thrown at them. If their key man is fit and ready for battle, then Captain America will be ready to lead his charges once again. 

Netherlands Team Preview

Although the Dutch have not been at their absolute best at this year’s World Cup, they still made relatively light work of their fellow Group A opponents. While in doing so, it means that Louis Van Gaal’s men have made safe passage to the Round of 16.

A passage that has largely been secured by one player in particular, and although Cody Gakpo was a name that only a handful of stateside supporters would have known before the tournament began, he is now a name on everybody’s lips.

With the PSV forward scoring in each of the Netherlands’ first three tournament outings, the 23-year-old is likely to be in high demand when the January transfer window opens. While because of that same record, he will be a marked man by the USA’s defense.

Of course, it is not just Gakpo that will offer Gregg Berhalter’s side a substantial threat and with the likes of Steven Bergwijn and Memphis Depay also primed and ready for Saturday’s clash, this Dutch attack line will certainly keep any opposition on their toes.

While although their attack will look to cause misery for their opponents, their defense is just as capable of withstanding any potential threat that comes their way. With only one goal conceded thus far, Virgil van Dijk is marshaling a rather solid backline.

Should De Oranje draw first blood on Saturday, this backline will become even more robust and this is something that the USA will have to be wary of. However, if the tide turns in the opposite direction, it will only serve to make this game more open. 

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

USA Vs. Netherlands Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamGoals ScoredGoals AllowedGoal Difference2022 World Cup xG2022 World Cup xGA2022 World Cup xGD
Netherlands51+42.952.65+0.3
USA21+13.12.45+0.65

Matchup History

In terms of the head-to-head record between the Netherlands and the USA, it does not make for good reading for the latter. The two nations have met on five separate occasions and the former has won four of them.

While although the Dutch may have the weight of history behind them, it is the USA who were winners in the previous encounter. A June 2015 friendly in Amsterdam was certainly an entertaining one, as the Men’s National Team ran out 4-3 winners at the now Johan Cruyff ArenA. 

As far as outright history is concerned, the Dutch have been the tournament bridesmaid on three separate occasions. The classes of 74’, 78’ and 2010 fell one game short, can the crop of 2022 go all the way? 

While the United States will look to at least match their quarterfinal appearance of twenty years ago. Especially as both their 2010 and 2014 attempts at World Cup victory ended in the Round of 16. 

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USA Vs. Netherlands Odds: Bets To Consider

Memphis Depay to score anytime:

Although Cody Gakpo is in red-hot form right now, there is always a danger that he will soon cool off. To score in three successive World Cup fixtures is an incredible achievement, to ask him to score in a fourth may be asking too much.

While because of this scoring streak, many bettors will fall into the trap that the sportsbooks have laid. Follow the player in form and the goals will continue to follow. That is the theory, but all streaks have to end at some stage.

This is why I am pivoting my Dutch scoring focus elsewhere and although Memphis Depay has struggled in terms of fitness, he did look to be back to his best against Qatar. A tune-up of sorts for the Barcelona forward and now it is time for him to turn up.

Because if Gakpo is the main threat in all of this, there is every chance that Depay could be the sniper against the USA. Foil one threat in terms of Dutch attack but forget about the other at the same time.

Should that play out, then my tip will have the sportsbooks paying out. The 28-year-old is currently the favorite to score anytime and with the added incentive of opening his own World Cup account, there is every chance it could swell your account as well. 

Netherlands Win and both teams to score: +340

Now that the United States has found its way to the Round of 16, they will want their knockout stage adventure to last a lot longer. Unfortunately for Gregg Berhalter and his players, I do not see this being the case.

There is no doubt that the current crop has held their own in Qatar and five group stage points from nine does not tell anywhere near the full story. A good opening 45 minutes in both the encounters against Wales and England, should have led to at least one additional win. 

However, the group stage is now just a mere footnote in soccer history. Now they must deal with a Netherlands side who I feel will be double Dutch at least. I can see them scoring two goals and that will be enough to book a place in the last eight.

That is not to say that the Dutch defense will not be breached. I do envisage goals for both nations. However, I feel that this American outfit will come up just short and all their early endeavor will be in vain.

For those who like a correct score bet, a 2-1 Netherlands win at odds of +775 may also be of interest. For those who prefer to find value elsewhere, backing a win for Louis Van Gaal’s men but both teams to score may be a safer path to tread.

World Cup Sports Betting Promos USA Vs. Netherlands Odds

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