US Open Market Report: Phil Mickelson, Xander Schauffele Popular Picks

Posted By FairwayJay on September 16, 2020 - Last Updated on September 17, 2020
US Open Golf Phil Mickelson Xander Schauffele

The 2020 US Open at Winged Foot is the toughest tournament of the year, and also the first of six majors in the 2020-21 PGA Tour season. The rescheduled US Open has 144 players competing, and Dustin Johnson is the favorite. Johnson comes in as the hottest player on the planet with two wins and two runner-up finishes since the PGA Championship.

TheLines’ PGA Tour power rankings has Johnson and Rahm on top heading into Winged Foot. But just a few hours before Thursday’s opening round, there is a surprise in the betting market with Phil Mickelson taking great betting interest along with Justin Thomas (+1400). Mickelson is offered at +10000 (100/1) at DraftKings Sportsbook, +8500 at FanDuel Sportsbook and +9000 at BetMGM.

DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello told TheLines early in the week that Mickelson had been a popular choice. On Wednesday Avello added, “Bets on Phil seem to be every other ticket written so I’m surprised he’s not the (No. 1) handle and the top bet grabber.”

Mickelson is a sentimental pick to win having been runner-up in six US Opens with America’s championship the only major that has eluded the five-time major champion.

Another betting favorite this week has been Xander Schauffele, who is always in contention of late – finishing in the Top 25 in eight consecutive events, and in 17 of 19 events during the 2020 season.

“Schauffele is among the most popular bets across the board this week,” Avello said. “The top 10 is a market where Schauffele tends to get even more traction due to his consistent play.”

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US Open betting market splits

While in-play betting will draw plenty of interest and bets during the US Open, here are the betting splits as of Wednesday afternoon. These players are generating the most interest to win and to finish top-10 at Winged Foot.

GolferWin Odds% Handle% BetsTop 10 Odds% Handle
Dustin Johnson+8509%6%+10016%
Justin Thomas+14008%6%+1635%
Phil Mickelson+100007%4%+750< 2%
Xander Schauffele+15006%5%+1758%
Jon Rahm+9006%4%+1206%
Collin Morikawa+17005%5%+2004%
Rory McIlroy+18004%3%+200< 2%
Tiger Woods+45004%4%+400< 2%
Bryson DeChambeau+28004%3%+2756%
Tony Finau+40004%3%+3505%
Daniel Berger+33003%3%+3005%
Matthew Wolff+80003%3%+550< 2%
Webb Simpson+25003%3%+2503%

Bets continue to pour in with much of the wagering activity the day and hours before tee-off times on Thursday. The betting percentages on players can change, as well as the handle, with some monster wagers taken by sportsbooks.

Avello noted, “Dustin Johnson has been on a tear of late, and it’s no surprise to see him at the top of the list in both betting percentage and betting handle.

Jon Rahm is also getting play from the shorter priced group, but DJ leads the top-10 betting market as well.”

US Open DraftKings promotion

If you’re betting on a US player to win the US Open, then get in the game with DraftKings Sportsbook. This week’s US Open special offer includes:

  • Double your winnings if any American wins this week’s major (-250). Bet up to $50.
  • For new players joining DraftKings Sportsbook, you can get a welcome bonus worth up to $1,025.
  • To get started at DraftKings, go here.

US Open golf props

Avello noted the popularity of betting players’ finishing position. That includes Tiger Woods, whose presence in the field adds significant wagering interest. Tiger is:

  • +4500 to win
  • +750 to hit the Top 5
  • +400 for the Top 10
  • +175 for the Top 20
  • +160 miss cut, -225 make cut

“Tiger is certainly drawing some action,” Avello said. “But bettors also know that it’s tough for these guys to win, because they have to put four rounds together, which is difficult. There are so many other golfers on the top of their game right now.”

And then there is Mickelson, who is:

  • +10000 to win
  • +1400 to hit the Top 5
  • +750 for the Top 10
  • +335 for the Top 20
  • +115 miss cut, -157 make cut

Mickelson (-137) vs. Jordan Spieth (+110) is one of the top matchup props.

“Even with Mickelson getting so much traction to win the US Open outright, bettors see Spieth as the value with Jordan as the underdog taking 75% of the match-up bets to finish ahead of Phil,” Avello said.

Avello noted other top caliber players in the 40/1 odds range like Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood and 2013 US Open winner Justin Rose.

“With guys like that, you can not only take them at 40-1 to win but back it up with 4-1 for the Top 10. That’s a nice return,” Avello said. “Those players can still make money for you in the Top 20 and even the Top 30. It’s like a horse racing bet in which you would take win, place, and show on your favorite horse.”

If none of those Tiger wagers above are of interest, BetMGM has an offer on the three-time US Open champ that could make you a Birdie.

 

Matchup props

TheLines asked Avello about the many tournament match-ups offered at DraftKings for the 2020 US Open and he said the interest and betting has been up to par.

“There are so many good ones, and Rahm (-115) vs. Johnson (-108) is attracting a good amount of action,” Avello said.

Others full tournament match-ups noted include:

  • Justin Thomas (-125) vs. Xander Schauffele (+100)
  • Collin Morikawa (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (+100)
  • Tiger Woods (-137) vs. Matt Kuchar (+110)
  • Kevin Streelman (-125) vs. Joel Dahmen (+100)
  • Justin Rose (-118) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-106)

“Many times looking a little deeper may find you value, for instance possibly a Dahmen/Streelman,” Avello said.

Avello also noted that “England’s match-up between the veteran Justin Rose and rising young star Matthew Fitzpatrick offers plenty of intrigue as well.”

Winning score and bogey free prop

The tough scoring conditions led DraftKings to offer some juicy odds and player props on Round 1 bogey-free scoring:

  • Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm (+2500)
  • Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa (+2800)
  • Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas (+2800)
  • Tiger Woods (+4000)
  • Phil Mickelson (+6000)

US Open betting odds

US Open Winner

Game
09/17/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Dustin Johnson
Bet now
+850
Bet now
+850
Bet now
+800
Jon Rahm
Bet now
+900
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+900
Justin Thomas
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Xander Schauffele
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Collin Morikawa
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+1600
Rory McIlroy
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+1800
Bet now
+1600
Webb Simpson
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2500
Bryson DeChambeau
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2200
Daniel Berger
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2800
Jason Day
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3800
Bet now
+4000
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3400
Bet now
+3500
Patrick Cantlay
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+2700
Bet now
+2800
Tommy Fleetwood
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3500
Hideki Matsuyama
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3300
Tony Finau
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3300
Tyrell Hatton
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3900
Bet now
+4000
Adam Scott
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Justin Rose
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4000
Tiger Woods
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4800
Bet now
+4500
Paul Casey
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+4800
Bet now
+5000
Viktor Hovland
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+6500
Bet now
+5000
Harris English
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+6600
Rickie Fowler
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+6500
Bet now
+5000
Sungjae Im
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+7000

View odds for every golfer at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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