2023 US Open Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done
I write this miles high in the sky en route to La La Land, and I for one could not be more excited to see how my U.S. Open bets play out beginning Thursday. Los Angeles Country Club is opening its gates to a professional golf tournament for the firs time since 1940 for this 123rd U.S. Open. As always, find the best odds for the U.S. Open bets at the best sports betting sites, as Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and the best in the world take aim at an unfamiliar golf course.
It's always refreshing to see a new track challenge the best in the world, and that's exacerbated when playing on a major championship stage on a top-15 rated course in the country. LACC will bring a fiery change of pace to the U.S. Open, rewarding creative shot making from a ball striking standpoint and imaginative touch on and around these speedy greens. I'll be there in person on Friday and cannot wait to share back what I see up close at this tremendous venue.
But now it's time to get into my full betting card and final thoughts for the 2023 U.S. Open.
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HOW I BUILT MY US OPEN BETTING CARD
Traditionally at the U.S. Open, you need to be long and accurate off the tee, elite with long iron approaches and highly dependable from around the green. A more open and firm layout at LACC which replaces thick rough with unpredictable barrancas will pose a change of pace from the norm. With that said, this layout should ultimately favor the most skilled players from tee to green, and produce another stacked leaderboard filled with star power at the top come Sunday. This is not the type of course that lends itself to a surprise longshot winner.
With that in mind, I built a very tight betting card this week, centered around the player I think has the best chance to win this tournament.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, we are upping the stakes just a bit to match the high-stakes atmosphere of the third major of the year for my U.S. Open bets.
- Outrights – 3.75U in to pay 30U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 12U+ each
- Props – 4U in to pay out 4U+ each
Click on any of the U.S. Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.75 UNITS)
Scottie Scheffler
My Bet: +750
Best Available Odds:
When it comes to major championships, it's usually best not to overthink it. These are the four events per year where the best players in the world have their full, undivided attention with the opportunity to grow their legacy. Simply put, Scottie Scheffler's season from a statistical standpoint is too good not to pick up at least one major championship, and LACC is a venue that plays into everything Scheffler does best.
Over the last 36 rounds, Scheffler ranks No. 1 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: ARG. That level of tee-to-green dominance is simply too much for me to pass on, and considering we've seen Scheffler's outright odds as short as +400 this season, +750 is a number I can still justify getting behind.
There are warranted concerns about his putter leading into this week after losing over 13 strokes on the greens in his last two starts. However, this is still a player who has gained strokes putting in six of his last 11 events, so with a new putter in the bag this week, I'm optimistic he can correct his recent struggles. If he does, we may be looking at another 2022 Masters display of dominance.
Max Homa
My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:
This a future bet I placed in February after Homa closed out the California swing with finishes of 1st, 1st, and 2nd at the Fortinet Championship, Farmers Open, and Genesis Invitational respectively. There's no coincidence when it comes to Homa in California that he embraces the moment of playing in front of the home crowd, and that will be heightened to a fever pitch when playing in a true home game in Los Angeles.
Homa is still waiting for results in majors to materialize, but there's no question they will inevitably come, given his track record in difficult scoring conditions. There is no better set up for Homa to contend in a major for the first time than now. He set the course record at LACC in the PAC-12 Championship during his college days at Cal, and with a pair of top-10 finishes over his last three starts, his game is trending exactly where it needs to be leading into U.S. Open week.
Sahith Theegala
My Bet: +16000
Best Available Odds:
My featured spotlight player of the week, I couldn't resist going back to the local California narrative once more with one of the game's most electric showmen. The second-year pro has already picked up four top-15s in the state of California, and has great familiarity with Los Angeles Country Club, on record as saying he's played the course at least 30 times. With its generous landing areas off the tee and need for creative shot making, this feels like a perfect fit for Sahith's game, who will look to improve on a T9 showing at The Masters earlier this year.
U.S. Open FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Sungjae Im
My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:
We were onboard for Sungjae's successful first round lead at the 2022 Masters, and with so many comparisons drawn between LACC and Augusta, it makes sense to me to go right back to him in this spot again. I couldn't fit Sungjae on my outright card this week, but he's one of my favorite under the radar plays, in a nice buy-low spot at a course we know he has the all-around tools to attack.
Sahith Theegala
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
I expect a rollercoaster ride for four days with Sahith at LACC, but his vast experience on the course should give him a leg up to avoid the many blow up holes this course can present. There's no question whether Sahith can generate birdie looks on a course like this, so his FRL prospects will ultimately come down to whether he can keep the crooked numbers off his card in round one.
Russell Henley
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:
Russell Henley is always an FRL consideration whenever he eclipses the 80-1 odds mark. And as it turns out, I really love the fit for his game of driving accuracy and elite iron play. I would be shocked if he contended down the stretch on Sunday, but he has the tools to go low for a day on this layout.
Kurt Kitayama
My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:
I'm always drawn to Kitayama on driver-heavy courses with forgiving fairways. He's been very boom-or-bust this season, but that's exactly the type of player I look to target in the FRL market. He should enter this week with a little extra confidence after finishing T4 at the PGA Championship.
Sebastian Munoz
My Bet: +13000
Best Available Odds:
It is good to be back on the Munoz FRL train, people, especially considering that our current weekly FRL auto-bet Aaron Rai did not qualify for the U.S. Open. The Munoz family just welcomed their first child as an added narrative for this Fathers Day weekend, and I have a little extra juice than usual after a successful Bam Adebayo First Basket parlay.
US OPEN PROPS (4 UNITS)
Top-40 Finish: Kurt Kitayama
My Bet: +210
Best Available Odds:
I understand the OWGR isn't exactly the industry standard of player rankings anymore, but if we are talking about 2-1 odds for the No. 20 ranked player in the world to finish top-40, I'm going to take my chances. Kitayama is at his best on driver-heavy courses with generous fairways and has looked more good than bad recently with three top-30s over his last five starts.
Top-20 Finish: Russell Henley
My Bet: +320
Best Available Odds:
Russell Henley has finished top-20 in nine of his last 10 starts between the U.S. Open and The Masters. That is absolutely staggering to me, and considering that LACC is a perfect blend of Augusta National and recent U.S. Open venues, this doesn't seem like the place for that trend to end. With six top-20s over his last seven starts, this prop is one of my favorite value bets of the week.
Top-20 Finish: Sahith Theegala
My Bet: +330
Best Available Odds:
I'm betting with my heart here, but between the local fan support, the course familiarity, and success in difficult scoring conditions to date, I just have a good feeling about Theegala's chances this week. With eight top-20s already this season, this course is a solid profile fit for Theegala to continue to add to that total.
Top LIV Finisher: Cam Smith
My Bet: +450
Best Available Odds:
I'm not tremendously bullish on Brooks Koepka this week given the added layer of creative shot making needed at LACC compared to a traditional U.S. Open track. On the contrary, I could not envision a more ideal course layout for Cam Smith than this. The wide open fairways should mitigate the penalty for any wayward drives, and there are still few other in the world of golf who are better than Smith from fairway to green. Aside from Brooks, I would be very surprised if any other LIV players finish ahead of Smith this week.
Dual Forecast: Scottie Scheffler/Cam Smith
My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:
If I did not already have a future on Max Homa earlier this year, my betting card would have likely just been these two. So, as a hedge around the Smith outright, I'm putting a small piece on the 1-2 outcome I believe to be most likely this week.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Cam Smith
What else can I say, I love Cam Smith this week. He led the field from tee-to-green at Southern Hills, one of the top comp courses we have to LACC, and he is always known to be a threat at Augusta National. A firm and fast layout that demands soft touch around the greens is an ideal set up for Smith, and in the OAD format, it just makes too much sense to use the elite LIV players in these sparse opportunities at majors.
If not Smith, I would also consider Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, or Jordan Spieth as OAD picks.
US OPEN: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s U.S. Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own U.S. Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the Travelers Championship! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
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