2022 US Open Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on June 15, 2022
US Open bets

The circus begins tomorrow morning as the third Major of the year, the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts is just about upon us. It’s been an eventful week of Major prep, as outside the onslaught of LIV questions from the media, we’ve also learned a bit more about a course we haven’t seen host a Major championship since 1988. Below, I’ll share the final card for my 2022 U.S. Open bets.

While the course remains “short” by Major standards at just over 7,200 yards, it’s still going to favor players with above-average distance; as these small, firm, fast, elevated, and undulated greens are going to be difficult to hold with a long iron in hand. While still difficult to predict for certain, it seems gusting winds could play a factor. If that’s the case, we may see a winning score close to even par. That means even more of a premium on scrambling and bogey avoidance in difficult conditions, especially with rough grown out most prominently around the greens. I expect more of a challenge here than the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, and will go on a limb to say -4 is the winning score come Sunday.

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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

I did not lock my card until Wednesday morning– which is not how I typically like to go about things– but the Major Week promos across sportsbooks were not as prevalent as we’d seen for The Masters and PGA Championship. In any case, I structured my card around players who have thrived in difficult scoring conditions and who have the ability to avoid significant trouble on the score card by crossing off any players who are a liability off the tee or around the green. I’m expecting a grind, so I narrowed in on players who enter this week in the best current form.

As is tradition, we pump up the units in the same proportion for a Major, so outrights (3.75U in to pay 30U each) and props (3.75U in to pay out 3.75U+ each) get a bump, while FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+) remains the same.

U.S. OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.75 UNITS)

Collin Morikawa

My Bet: +3300

Best Odds Still Available:

Collin has made some uninspiring comments about the current control of his golf ball in his interviews this week, but that’s nothing new for the same man who was concerned about his club’s interaction with the overseas turf in the week prior to his British Open victory. Since the beginning of the week I do believe SG: ARG will be as important as SG: APP with some of these greens impossible to hold from out of position, however a bet on Morikawa is a bet that he consistently keeps himself in position off the tee, just as he executed at The Open last year.

Will Zalatoris

My Bet: +3300

Best Odds Still Available:

Will Zalatoris has over taken Brooks Koepka as the present-day must-bet player in Majors. His resume speaks for itself with five top-10 finishes in his last six Majors, including runner ups at the 2021 Masters and 2022 PGA Championship in that span. The Country Club will take some of the distance advantage away, which he’s been able to flex in Majors, but he remains the No. 1 player in the field in terms of SG: APP. Even if the layout forces a few more conservative tee shots, Zalatoris’ game is still primed to thrive in these conditions.

Max Homa

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

I may have gone a bit overboard with the TPC Potomac comps, but the fact remains players will be faced with a similar emphasis of Total Driving premiums on a challenging, positional course which must be played from the fairway to generate scoring opportunities. Homa’s become one of the most consistent driver on TOUR this season, ranking top-30 in both Fairways Gained and Driving Distance. That’s a baseline that should keep him out of harm’s way this week, and if the putter remains hot, he has all the skills in his bag to become a Major champion.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

I expect total driving to play a major role in this Major, just as it did at the Wells Fargo Championship where Young finished T2. The more we’ve heard about The Country Club this week, the more it seems it will be fairly playable out of the rough, which gives a leg up to the elite drivers, as long as they are not completely erratic. Young ranks No. 4 in Driving Distance, No. 28 in Fairways Gained, and No. 4 in SG: Ball Striking, all positive signs that he should consistently position himself for scoring opportunities on this course.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +9900

Best Odds Still Available:

Welp, we’re back to the scene of the crime, backing Mito once again at another Major championship. We can only hope he’s grown from his last experience at the PGA Championship and is better for it with more experience under his belt. The heartbreak hasn’t seemed to linger for Mito, as he followed up his T3 at the PGA Championship with a T7 and a T13 in his next two starts. You want to see trending form entering a U.S. Open, and although he’s limited in experience on USGA setups, that may not matter if he continues to hit fairways and greens at the rate he’s currently on.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

If Mito doesn’t get his breakthrough win at The Country Club, who better than Keegan Bradley, the hometown kid? Keegan just received first pitch honors at Fenway on Tuesday and should have the crowd on his side this week. That was not the case the last time he was in contention at the Wells Fargo against crowd favorite, Max Homa. Keegan has three T10 finishes in his last seven starts, but most encouragingly, the putter is actually showing signs of life, gaining 3+ strokes in two of his last three starts. We’d expect Keegan to continue to gain on the field with his ball striking, as he’s done so all but once since August 2020. If we have reason to believe the putting has turned a corner, it’s only a matter of time before he finally converts another victory.

Brian Harman

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

Brian Harman is a certified dart throw, but I’m encouraged by his results in difficult conditions. He’s finished top-20 in three of his last six Major appearances, and has four career top-10 finishes between the Majors and THE PLAYERS. The veteran has been here before, and enters in great all around form, gaining at least a half stroke across all four strokes gained categories over his last ten events.

Kevin Na

My Bet: +21000

Best Odds Still Available:

I didn’t have to think long about throwing some loose change on Kevin Na, who unlike most of my card, actually has viable win equity. It’ll be an uphill battle with his lack of distance at a U.S. Open, but he can lean on his elite short game skillset if conditions pick up, and this becomes the single-digit under par scrambling content we expect it to be. Prior to his LIV debut, Na had gained 3+ strokes on approach in four consecutive events, so if he manages to play from the fairway throughout the week, there’s plenty of upside for a 200/1+ bomb.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

First pitch at Fenway feels like a First Round Leader sign, so we’re running with it. Keegan has all the tools to find success on this layout and is no stranger to the top of the leaderboard on a Thursday.

Aaron Wise

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Aaron Wise is popping all over everyone’s stat models this week, fueled by his newfound ability to make some putts. I have a hard time believing Wise can stand up to the pressure of contending for four days in a Major, but there’s no doubt his current game suits the task at hand. I’ll keep my exposure to Wise before the pressure picks up.

Russell Henley

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Russell Henley is always a good idea to back on a Thursday, especially on a course that trades the premium of distance for accuracy. He was the co-First Round Leader with Louis Oosthuizen at last year’s U.S. Open, and a better fit this time around at The Country Club suggests he can repeat that success again.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +9500 ,

Best Odds Still Available:

I didn’t expect Munoz to pop as a course fit at The Country Club, as he typically profiles best at birdie-fests where bogey avoidance is less of a premium. But with that said, Munoz is a top-5 player in this field on Par-4s 450+ yards, and with this course featuring eight holes from that range, there’s optimism that he can hold his own on this layout too.

KH Lee

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

I understand this is The Country Club and not TPC Country Club, but KH Lee is beginning to transcend that stigma. He was co-First Round Leader in his previous start at the Memorial and was T2 after round one at the AT&T Byron Nelson, so we know he’s able to get off to a hot start.

PROPS (3.75 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Matt Fitzpatrick

My Bet: +130

Best Odds Still Available:

There are few players I trust more than Matt Fitzpatrick to finish inside the top-20 in difficult scoring conditions, so the plus-odds are a huge value for the 2013 U.S. Amateur champion on these grounds. He’s finished top-20 in the first two Majors of the 2022 season already and has finished top-20 in ten of his first 13 PGA TOUR starts in 2022.

Top-20 Finish: Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +260

Best Odds Still Available:

You know it’s been too long of a week of U.S. Open prep when you find yourself feeling this good about Keegan Bradley on a Wednesday. But here we are, hopelessly optimistic that his top-tier ball striking will manifest itself into a high finish in this New England home game. My expectations will be in check if he finds himself in contention again this Sunday, so I consider this a preemptive hedge to save myself from more emotional Major heartbreak.

Top-30 Finish: Brian Harman

My Bet: +275

Best Odds Still Available:

Can we put a little respect on Brian Harman’s name? While short in stature, the man has been rock solid in U.S. Opens. He’s finished T38 or better in each of his last four appearances, highlighted by a T2 at the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills. A shorter U.S. Open venue in The Country Club should suit him even better, and with top-20 finishes already this season at other challenging, positional courses like Muirfield Village, TPC Potomac, and Innisbrook Resort, his form continues to trend towards another high placement this week.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Will Zalatoris

Zalatoris has reached “must-play in Majors” status. After missing the opportunity for exposure at The Masters (T6) and PGA Championship (2), I’m happy jump on now before the free-for-all at The Old Course. Zalatoris has a complete tee-to-green game and, although the putting stroke is anxiety-inducing, it’s gotten the job done in Majors just fine, gaining at least 4 strokes putting in three of his last five Major starts.

If not Zalatoris, I would also consider Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, or Matt Fitzpatrick.

THE GOLF BETTING CARD: US OPEN BETS

That’ll do it for my golf betting card for the 2022 U.S. Open. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Sunday for the 2022 Travelers Championship Preview. If you’re in Cromwell, Connecticut that Friday, I will literally see you there – come say hey!


John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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