2024 US Open Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One & Done

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
us open bets

Golf’s third Major is here, with the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 next on tap in North Carolina, beginning Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele headline among U.S. Open bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite picks among all the golf odds for this tourney. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

We are one sleep away from the third major of the year. My U.S. Open bets are officially all locked in for Pinehurst No. 2.

Pinehurst No. 2 Course Preview

Carnage is expected, as usual, at the U.S. Open, which has always been billed as the most difficult test in golf. Softer-than-expected conditions nearly made a mockery of the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC, so we should expect the USGA to come prepared to bite back with a very stern test at Pinehurst No. 2. Unlike traditional U.S. Open venues, it’s not the sheer length that poses the greatest challenge at Pinehurst, but rather the need for patience and a deft touch around this firm and fast turtleback greens.

Ahead, we’ll get into my full betting card and final thoughts for the 2024 U.S. Open. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place U.S. Open bets at legal sports betting sites

For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my U.S. Open preview

HOW I BUILT MY US Open BETTING CARD

I normally don’t start my outright card beyond the 40-1 range unless we’re at a putting contest that entirely levels the advantage of tee-to-green skill. I’m not saying that will be the case at Pinehurst No. 2, but it is prone to more randomness than your typical U.S. Open venue. Well-struck shots can take a bad bounce into the neighboring wiregrass or gently roll off the back of these turtle shell greens. Skillsets in position off-the-tee and scrambling are more attainable for the wider field, so I’ve opted to construct a wider card of exposure to combat some of that expected randomness.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, we are upping the stakes just a bit to match the high-stakes atmosphere of the second major of the year for my U.S. Open bets.

  • Outrights – 4.2U in to pay 30U each
  • FRL – 1U in to pay out 15U+ each
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 4U+ each

Click on any of the U.S. Open odds below for the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.

US OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (4.2 UNITS)

Tommy Fleetwood

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

I’m starting my betting card with Tommy Fleetwood, who is my on-record pick to win the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

Tommy fits the latest trend of first-time Major winners (seven of the last 10), and has shown a consistent baseline across all four Strokes Gained categories necessary to hang around for golf’s greatest test. His best career Major finish was a runner-up at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, which is the closest a Major venue has come to replicating what Pinehurst No. 2 has to offer since we were last here in 2014.

Cameron Smith

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

The neighboring sand and wiregrass is a clear concern when considering Cameron Smith this week, and lets be honest, so is his LIV form in 2024. However, Smith still has the best Short Game in the world, in my opinion, and I trust he can follow a similar formula that led to his first Major win at St. Andrews, flexing his world-class creativity on and around the greens. Smith would join Martin Kaymer in an elite company to have won at both TPC Sawgrass and Pinehurst No. 2.

Justin Thomas

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

Another former PLAYERS champion with a world-class short game available at a significant discount, JT’s odds are simply too long for me to ignore this week. It was his elite Approach play and Scrambling that allowed him to separate at THE PLAYERS, and generous fairway landing areas aside, there’s plenty of overlap between Southern Hills and Pinehurst No. 2 from a short-game perspective. Thomas just finished T8 in his last Major start and has shown his usual form in 2024 with six top-15 finishes already.

Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

Who are you taking in a Scrambling contest? For me, I’ll side with the man who leads the PGA TOUR in SG: ARG, who also happens to have a Masters victory on his resume just three years ago. Injury risk is always a concern with Matsuyama, but less so for me when it comes to the Outright market. Matsuyama has had a fantastic 2024 season, which includes a win at Riviera and five top-12 finishes over his last seven starts.

Tyrrell Hatton

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

I’m trusting my model with this bet, as I haven’t had the luxury of tracking very closely how Hatton has looked on LIV this year. His results are not alarming, and for what it’s worth, he’s gained total strokes in the field in each start across LIV, the PGA TOUR, and the DP World Tour since September 2023. Hatton is best suited for a course that rewards driving accuracy and spike putting, and a T9 at The Masters this year suggests he has stayed in top form since leaving the PGA TOUR behind.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Pinehurst No. 2 requires imaginative shot-making, which is where Theegala thrives most. Some of his best results have come on firmer courses like TPC Scottsdale and Riviera CC, and he’s continued to show an affinity for difficult venues, recently posting top-12 finishes at the PGA Championship and the Memorial. Anecdotally, this just “feels” like a Sahith course, and it would be great theater to watch him hit consequential shots around Pinehurst on championship Sunday.

Sam Burns

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

Sam Burns’ lackluster major history has driven his odds down this far. In his defense, however, he has never played a Major on Bermuda greens until now. So if he’s going to break out, now would be the time! The new father has caught fire since that new perspective has settled in, finishing top-15 in three of his last four starts. It would seem appropriate that Burns’ heater pay off with a victory on Father’s Day.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +12000
Best Available Odds:

Sneakily one of the hottest players in the world right now, Sungjae has suddenly regained his vintage form that has always made him an appealing contender in Majors. He’s back to gaining across all four Strokes Gained categories and rides a streak of three top-10 finishes over his last four starts. Sungjae has won on Bermuda greens at the Honda Classic, in extremely firm conditions at the Shriners Open, and routinely plays his best at Donald Ross’ East Lake GC.

Alex Noren

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

This is my favorite longshot on the board this week; you could not ask for better conditions to bring out Alex Noren’s best skillsets. He ranks top-10 in Scrambling, Bermuda Putting, and Bogey Avoidance, and is a grinder who can reliably play out of the fairway and linger around Even par throughout the week. He’s in resurgent form in 2024, with nine top-25 finishes over his last 10 starts.

US OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (1 UNIT)

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

Theegala is nothing if not streaky and seems to be on a short list of players capable of finding birdies where the rest of the field labors to make par. That’s a credit to his spike putting upside primarily, and he’ll need to capitalize on holing some longer putts with so few opportunities to fire at pins at Pinehurst No. 2.

Sam Burns

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

We were robbed by Sean O’Hair of an FRL cash on Sam Burns at the RBC Canadian Open, but the fact remains he is always liable to go low in the opening rounds. We should know better than to doubt Sam Burns on Bermuda greens by now and like him, especially in the early rounds before the pressure of a Major settles in.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Sungjae Im has proven capable of setting the pace in Majors before, jumping out to the first-round lead at the 2022 Masters. It’s that same acumen around tight and undulated greens that gives me confidence he can handle the terrain at Pinehurst No. 2, and he’ll enter in as good of form as he ever has leading up to a U.S. Open.

Russell Henley

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Positioning is key at Pinehurst No. 2, and Henley leads that category, ranking No. 1 in Fairways Gained. Like Burns, Henley is most dangerous on Bermuda greens, which could finally spell a breakout performance for him.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:

We’ve yet to see Aaron Rai step up to the plate at a big event like a U.S. Open, however he has shown the ability to jump out to a hot start on a Major-like venues like Torrey Pines. While not exactly known for his short game, Rai’s accurate ball-striking makes him an appealing option in one-round format.

US Open PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top Korean: Sungjae Im

My Bet: +280
Best Available Odds:

I’m less bullish on Byeong Hun An, Tom Kim, SH Kim, and Sung Kang this week, so this wager ultimately comes down to a coin flip between Sungjae and Si Woo for me. On a Donald Ross design, I’m more inclined to side with the better putter in a toss-up, as I expect Si Woo’s shortcomings on the greens will be exploited.

Top-20 Finish: Alex Noren

My Bet: +320
Best Available Odds:

Nine top-25 finishes over his last 10 starts feel like a fairly safe baseline for Noren to cash in on this market. I understand this is a more competitive field than most weeks, but the heightened importance of Scrambling should only further cater to the veteran’s strengths.

Top Past Champion: Brooks Koepka

My Bet: +450

From an outright perspective, I did fade the favorites at the top of the board in anticipation of more randomness. With that said, it’s Brooks who scares me the most to contend at Pinehurst No. 2, not Rory McIlroy. We’ve seen what Brooks can do in grinder conditions with his win at Shinnecock Hills, and his greatest skill of patience around difficult scoring conditions will go rewarded here.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

I’m trusting my gut on this one as there are more savvy “game theory” plays of using your elite players in the highest purse tournaments. However, all roads are leading me to a Tommy Fleetwood victory this week, so I’m not going to resist that feeling in One And Done. He may be a popular Fantasy play this week but he makes for a great leverage choice in OAD.

If not Fleetwood, I would also consider Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, or Cameron Smith as OAD picks.

us open: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s U.S. Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own U.S. Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the Travelers Championship! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

us open BETS: ODDS TO WIN

Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to make U.S. Open bets now.

Photo by Associated Press

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