2024 Election Odds: Will Kamala Harris Or Donald Trump Win Michigan?
With Election Day less than a week away, Democrats are looking to the must-win state of Michigan for a victory next Tuesday. The Wolverine State is crucial to Democratic paths to 270 Electoral College votes. There was some panic there in the past couple of weeks, but is it well-founded? Will the 2024 election odds in Michigan be correct? At DraftKings Sportsbook in Ontario, Democrats are extremely narrow favorites to win the state.
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2024 Election Odds: To Win Michigan Electoral College Votes
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Democrats | -125 | 53% |
| Republicans | +100 | 50% |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook Ontario (as of Oct. 30, 2024)
Win With Whitmer?
Since Donald Trump’s shock 2016 victory in Michigan, Democrats have essentially swept the state. They won a majority of House districts in 2022, swept the statewide races in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and even managed to un-gerrymander and then sweep control of the State House and State Senate. The Whitmer machine has revamped Michigan and strengthened Democratic prospects.
The old key to Democratic victories in the pre-Trump era was huge margins in Detroit and not getting massacred in the white, working-class parts of the state. However, 2016 flipped the state because Trump received huge swings in pockets of the working class, while Democratic swings in the Detroit suburbs and in the west of the state weren’t enough.
Since then, Michigan has more votes left for Democrats to go get in Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, and Oakland County than Republicans have to go get in the north and in the “thumb” north of Detroit. That’s why Democrats won the state in 2020 and why it was the only one of the three Rust Belt states that moved left by more than the US as a whole.
Whitmer’s big re-election in 2022, coupled with the fact that the state voted to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution by 15%, made her a media darling in the Biden sweepstakes. That said, even with Kamala at the helm, Democrats should be able to take advantage of the underlying trends that made 2022 such a good year for Democrats.
That said, Whitmer’s real virtue is clarifying just how blue this state is when Democrats run a nominee with a pulse — at least, under traditional assumptions.
Stop! In The Name Of Gaza
Michigan has been a bigger polling problem for Democrats than it should be because of the state’s concentration of Arab Americans and large number of college students. The two groups largely oppose the Israeli actions in the aftermath of Oct. 7, 2023.
Now, it’s worth pointing out that a lot of the voters “leaving” the Democratic Party over Gaza are not actually leaving over Gaza. Dearborn, the state’s largest Arab population center, swung right hugely in 2022 over abortion and gay rights. The idea that this is a principled stand over human rights is undone, to a significant degree, by the fact that these same people have no problem trampling on the human rights of people in Dearborn, Detroit, or Kalamazoo.
What actually happened was simple. There’s a significant left presence in the Democratic Party in Michigan. Bernie Sanders, after all, won the 2016 primary here. A lot of left-wing Democrats oppose the Israeli government and weren’t thrilled with the Biden administration for lacking force.
When the time came, they got in line and voted for the opposing candidate.
Polling Closing Strong For Harris
There was a period in the early part of this month when Harris was tied in Michigan polling. Since then, she’s been strongly ahead. Glengarriff, an in-state pollster, has her up three, CNN has her up five, and Quinnipiac has her up three. She’s leading in the state and expanding her margins.
This makes complete sense, especially given the trends both in America and internationally. There is always movement toward the two major parties in an election. Fundamentally, voters do understand that protest votes are inherently ineffectual. Yes, plenty of Michigan Democrats are mad at the Biden administration. They also understand a vote for Jill Stein is a vote that doesn’t stop Donald Trump.
Trump is holding up in Michigan, but even when he was leading, it was because of abnormally high Stein vote shares or not pushing undecideds. Throw in that members of the Republican state party in Michigan have been suing one another over who is the true chair of the party, and they haven’t been able to organize efficiently.
Michigan 2024 Election Odds Prospects
Of the seven core swing states, Michigan is the easiest state for me to give to either side. Just as I wrote last week, North Carolina should vote for Trump, and I’m even more confident Michigan should vote blue.
Kamala Harris has a polling lead that is widening at the right time. The fundamentals point to Michigan going bluer than 2020. Democrats have a huge organizational advantage. This should be Kamala’s.
Best of luck with your picks for 2024 election odds!
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