Underdog Super Bowl Strategy Guide: Pick Mahomes, Purdy, Kelce For 49ers Vs. Chiefs?
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Underdog Super Bowl Picks Pricing
Patrick Mahomes: Higher/Lower Than 26.5 Rushing Yards
For context, Mahomes’ rushing yards prop is priced at at multiple sportsbooks. Although Mahomes “only” accrued 15 rushing yards in the AFC Championship game, he operated with a positive game script for much of this game.
Brock Purdy: Higher/Lower Than 31 Pass Attempts
The Niners’ quarterback went over this number in each of the last two games. Unlike Mahomes, he faced a substantial second-half deficit in each contest. However, I expect San Francisco to have more success on the ground, especially early on against the Chiefs, as I touched on in my Super Bowl best bets column.
Christian McCaffrey: Higher/Lower Than 92.5 Rushing Yards
This market is one of the most difficult ones to assess among Super Bowl 58 odds. While McCaffrey possesses a plus matchup against the Chiefs’ vulnerable ground defense, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo will center much of his game plan on slowing down the All-Pro tailback.
Isaiah Pacheco: Higher/Lower Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
I’d prefer the 49ers veer away from their standard zone coverage, but Pacheco will be a beneficiary if that isn’t the case. His target share increases by 5.9 percentage points against zone defenses.
Travis Kelce: Higher/Lower Than 74.5 Receiving Yards
Kelce’s postseason resurgence has been noted ad nauseam — and rightfully so. Nevertheless, the 49ers rank No. 4 in DVOA against opposing tight ends, thanks to their elite coverage linebackers. Expect this number to continue to rise closer to gameday.