Underdog NFL Picks: Eagles vs. Packers Friday Night In Brazil + 5 Best DFS Promo Codes
Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated at September 6, 2024
NFL football is back, and there are plenty of exciting opportunities available on a 16-game slate. With Underdog NFL picks, there’s even more opportunities to take advantage. Week 1 has lots of potential, but we’ll be focusing on Friday night in Brazil between the Eagles and Packers in this post.
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Underdog NFL Picks: Eagles vs. Packers Week 1 Friday in Brazil
Green Bay-Philadelphia represents an intriguing matchup, especially because of Green Bay’s long overdue decision to fire defensive coordinator Joe Barry this offseason. The Packers should be better against the run this year accordingly, increasing the chances that Jalen Hurts will have to throw. The Eagles will also want to establish Hurts as a passer, which makes the next three picks very well correlated.
Jalen Hurts Higher Than 32.5 Passing Attempts
Hurts only went over this number twice in the last two months of last year, but that coincided with when the Eagles were playing their worst offense. Kellen Moore dialed up pass-heavy offenses in Dallas even when his teams were good and often leading much of the time. In 2022, Dak Prescott averaged 32.8 passing attempts a game, and in 2021, that number spiked to 37.2.
With the spread hovering under a field goal, and the Packers having arguably the better quarterback in the game, the Eagles could be in a trailing position in this game. The combination of Moore’s tendencies, the risk of a pass-heavy game script, and the fact that the Packers should be better in the run game all make the Over feel like a smart play.
Jalen Hurts Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
If Hurts has to throw the ball more, it follows that the chances of an interception go up. Hurts threw 15 interceptions last year, including five in the last four games, as the Eagles’ season fell apart. With the Packers posing a tough threat, Hurts could have to rely on his arm a lot this week.
In 6 losses last year, Hurts threw eight INTs in 2023. While this isn’t by any means a sure thing loss, the more competitive a game was, the likelier Hurts was to make a mistake or two. Here, all we need is one.
Saquon Barkley Higher Than 2.5 Receptions
Saquon’s last three years in New York saw him average 2.9, 3.5, and 3.2 catches/game. Between D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell, the Eagles averaged 4 RB completions a game last year. Given the contract the Eagles gave Saquon, he should be a three-down back for Philadelphia.
More importantly, this correlates well with the over, and with the idea that Green Bay will be stouter against the run than under Joe Barry. If Saquon can’t get it going on the ground, Kellen Moore will dial up more pass plays as a way of getting their second best playmaker with the ball in space. A pass-heavy gamescript will also help here, as is very possible with the tight spread.
Best of luck with Week 1 Underdog NFL picks!
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