3 Divisional Round Underdog NFL Picks: Fantasy Draft & DFS Pick Em Strategy
The NFL divisional round is upon us, and Underdog Pick Em contests allow fantasy players to predict stat lines and fantasy points for almost all fantasy-relevant players. Underdog entries are limited to five Pick Ems. DFS contests featuring fantasy football drafts are also available. Let’s look at some Underdog NFL picks for the divisional round. You can compare Underdog lines to odds at betting sites by checking out TheLines.com’s Prop Finder Tool.
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underdog NFL Picks to consider For divisional round
Three TheLines.com writers submitted their favorite Underdog NFL picks – Jeffrey Schreiber, Derek Wagner, and Evan Scrimshaw.
Texans RB Devin Singletary
Underdog Line: Higher 54.5 Rushing Yards
Best Line At Sportsbooks:
via Jeffrey Schreiber
Despite the Texans slated to play this game as more than a touchdown underdog, the particular rushing matchup for Singletary presents a scenario that’s hard to overlook. The Ravens’ defense has shown extreme vulnerability to their opponents’ ground game this season, a trend that’s been especially clear in their recent games. Examining Baltimore’s run defense over their last three contests shows they have conceded 100+ yards on the ground in each game. Notably, even in the Ravens’ wins (two of the three games), which were by margins of 14 points or more, the opposing running back found success, even in an unfavorable game script.
Singletary has firmly established himself as the Texans’ primary running back, entering this matchup with 13+ carries in five of his last six appearances. His productivity is equally impressive in those six games, rushing for at least 63 yards in all of them aside for one. Notably, since week 14, fellow RB Dameon Pierce has played only 41 snaps, while Singletary has played 243.
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans
Underdog Line: Higher 64.5 Receiving Yards
Best Line At Sportsbooks:
via Derek Wagner
Evans has a favorable matchup this weekend against a pass-funnel Lions defense. The Lions surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards per game (268.4) while allowing the second-fewest rushing yards (88.8) this season. Playing Evans to go over this number makes a ton of sense, given that the Bucs’ offense is unlikely to replicate last week’s success on the ground.
Evans also has a favorable matchup against Lions cornerback Kindle Vildor this weekend. Outside of James Bradberry, no cornerback gave up more receiving yards than Vildor did in the Wild Card round. He gave up four catches to his assignments for 101 yards and a touchdown in the opening round. When targeted in the regular season, Vildor surrendered a 143.8 quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks, the worst of any Lions CB. Evans additionally has 6 inches of height on Vildor, so there’s potential for Evans to win a jump-ball situation if given the opportunity.
If that wasn’t case enough, the Lions allow the second-most receiving yards per game to WR1s at 89 yards. The only team that allowed more was the Commanders, at 103.8 yards per game. When the Lions give up yardage in the air, it’s typically to the opponent’s No. 1 receiver.
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid
Underdog Line: Higher 39.5 Receiving Yards
Best Line At Sportsbooks:
via Evan Scrimshaw
Kincaid has been a late-season hero in recent weeks for the Bills, a fate that extended into the Wild Card round. Fifty-nine yards and a touchdown against the Steelers cap off three straight weeks with above 50 yards. More importantly, he did that despite the Buffalo offense sputtering out in the second half as they protected a lead. Against the Chiefs, in better weather and without a double-digit spread, the Bills will likely go all out all game long.
His more advanced metrics line up with the excellent boxscore results, too. A 13.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) and a 22% share of the targets the last three games should carry into this game. As it was last week, the existence of Dawson Knox paradoxically makes Kincaid a better bet. His number is deflated because of concern over his usage, but that concern has been proven to be unfounded.
The fact that his number is this low despite the consistently elevated usage in recent weeks is ludicrous. He’s proving himself to be a key cog in Josh Allen’s passing game, and the meager line makes it even easier to trust him. While Kansas City failed to convert their red zone chances into many touchdowns against Miami, assuming they will run better in warmer temperatures will keep the pressure on Buffalo. That, plus all the Bills’ tendencies already, strengthens the case for Kincaid.
Best of luck with your wild card weekend Underdog NFL picks!
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Underdog Pick em Contest tips
Higher/Lower
Pick whether a player’s final stats will be higher or lower than their projection. Get all of your picks right, and you win. You have to make at least two picks from players on different teams, and you can’t pick the same player more than once.
Insurance
Pick Em entries of three or more picks can be insured at a reduced multiplier and will pay out, even with one incorrect pick. Non-insured entries have higher multipliers and payouts but require all picks to be correct.
Picks and multiplier
The bar on the top right of the screen shows what your current payout multiplier is (more picks = higher multiplier). Add an entry fee and lock in your picks.
Special picks
Special picks are just that! We’ve adjusted a player’s projection to make your choice easier. They’re indicated with a star icon.
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