Underdog NFL DFS Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl Rematch Week 7
The Chiefs head out west to San Francisco in one of the marquee games in NFL Week 7 odds. This Super Bowl rematch is especially exciting, given the injuries to both sides. Underdog NFL DFS picks are now available for the Chiefs and 49ers, with the latest Underdog promo code offering up to a $1000 deposit match ahead of Sunday's game.
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Underdog NFL DFS Picks For Chiefs vs. 49ers
No CMC, Pacheco, and Rashee Rice make this a substantially different matchup than the last time these two teams played. The Chiefs will use more players who weren’t crucial, especially if Fred Warner falls into coverage on Travis Kelce often.
With such a close spread, there’s little to be drawn from betting markets on game script, which means we just have to find good prices.
Brandon Aiyuk Lower Than 23.5 Yards Longest Reception
The Chiefs are the best in the league in not giving up explosive pass plays. They’ve only given up 18 through five games. While obviously the Niners' offense has been explosive, this bet did cash in the Super Bowl when the threat of McCaffrey existed. Without that, it’s even more attractive.
The other point worth making is if the Niners are going to find an explosive play it will likely be with Deebo on a huge YAC glorified rushing play. The Chiefs corners have been solid all year and it’s unlikely they let Aiyuk get loose for a big play.
Patrick Mahomes Higher Than 1.5 Passing TDs
The Niners have a reputation for defensive greatness that isn’t justified by the stats this year. They are 13th by defensive EPA, and they’ve yet to face a team with a truly top-tier QB. There’s reason to think the Chiefs can move the ball here.
More to the point, the Chiefs have yet to be pushed offensively. The 49ers will bring this game into being more of a shootout, which will increase the chances Mahomes has to throw. If he does, it’s likely he gets into the end zone as a passer twice.
Harrison Butker Higher Than 1.5 Field Goals
Betting Mahomes’ over on TD passes and betting over on Butker seems uncorrelated, but it’s not. Andy Reid is needlessly conservative despite having the best QB in the league, and if the Chiefs stall out in field goal range, he trusts Butker. This number has gone over 4 of 5 weeks, and the only week he still kicked two attempts.
This weaker Niners defense should enable both of these to happen.
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