Underdog NFL DFS Picks: Buccaneers at Falcons Thursday Night Football
Week 5 kicks off in Atlanta, with the Buccaneers heading up to Georgia to face the suddenly surging Falcons. With the NFC South lead on the line, this game has all the potential to be a Thursday Night Football classic. Underdog NFL DFS picks are now available for the Buccaneers at Falcons, with the latest $1000 Underdog promo code offering up to a $1000 deposit match ahead of Thursday Night Football.
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This game features two teams outside the Top 20 in defensive EPA, which should open this matchup offensively. The Falcons lucked out last week with a muffed punt touchdown and a defensive touchdown, but their offense is still only 21st in EPA. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers are 9th in offensive EPA.
Whether Kirk Cousins and Co. can keep up with the Bucs will be crucial this week. The Bucs defense is 32nd in rush Defense EPA, which is where these Underdog picks start.
Bijan Robinson Higher Than 65.5 Rushing Yards
The last time we had a game against the worst rush defense in the league, Derrick Henry ran for over 100 yards against Dallas. The Bucs have now supplanted the Cowboys as the worst of the worst, which will be catnip for Bijan.
Robinson’s number is lower than it should be for the matchup, given the limited tag in practice and the fact that the Chiefs stifled him in primetime two weeks ago. This is a low number for the opportunities available.
Rachaad White Lower Than 33.5 Yards
White has only gotten 26 carries over the last three games, and he’s gone above this number once. Yes, White got higher than this number on unsustainably good efficiency last week, but per-rush efficiency is more fungible week to week than usage. White’s usage hasn’t been consistent.
The Bucs are also underdogs, which suggests that there will be more passing than rushing. This adds to skepticism that White will get the chances he'd need to go over this number.
Younghoe Koo Higher Than 2.0 PATs Made
The Falcons have scored two touchdowns in the last three games of this season. Koo is one of the best kickers in the league, hitting every PAT since Week 2 of 2023. Against the 21st Defense by EPA, the Falcons really should score at least two, if not three touchdowns. If they do, Koo should sail over this number.
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