Underdog NFL DFS Picks: 49ers at Seahawks Thursday Night Football
Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated at October 9, 2024
After a bad week for both teams, San Francisco heads up the coast for a Thursday Night Football match against Seattle. With the Seahawks losing to the Giants and the Niners stuck at a shocking 2-3, this game has all the intrigue. Underdog NFL DFS picks are now available for the 49ers and Seahawks, with the latest $1000 Underdog promo code offering up to a $1000 deposit match ahead of Thursday Night Football.
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Underdog NFL DFS Picks For Thursday Night Football
The Seahawks have been 31st in defensive EPA for the last two weeks. After three weeks against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson, the Seahawks defense has collapsed against even remotely competent quarterback play. Getting ripped up by the Giants without Malik Nabers has to be a concern for Seahawks fans.
More importantly, their rush defense is getting ripped apart. In the last two weeks, the Seahawks have given up 129 and 78 yards to their opposition’s lead backs. As underdogs this week, the Seahawks could be hit on the ground again.
On the other side of the ball, the Niners are 9th defensively against the pass and a very weak 20th against the rush. Kenneth Walker will be key to the Seahawks getting into the flow of the game, which is where these picks start.
Kenneth Walker Higher Than 54.5 Rushing Yards
Walker only got 5 carries in Week 5, but the two weeks before that, he went for 80 and 103. We have a coach quote about needing to get Walker the ball more this week. We have a matchup where the Niners are weaker against the run than the pass. And we have the Seahawks as underdogs, who will want to milk the clock and slow this game down.
It seems likely, if not certain, that this game will go slowly. Walker’s rushing efficiency is crucial to Seattle limiting the number of possessions and getting their defense some rest. Walker is averaging 5.5 yards/carry this season, which means he only needs 10 or 12 carries to hit this number. Off a low week, it’s a nice buy low.
Jordan Mason Higher Than 78.5 Rushing Yards
Mason has distinguished himself so far this season as an actually good running back in his own right. Averaging 5.1 yards/carry, Mason has gone over this number two straight weeks and four of five times this season. The Seahawks gave up 129 yards to Tyrone Tracy Jr. and would have given up more than this number to Jahmyr Gibbs if David Montgomery didn’t exist. (Combined, they ran for 120.)
The combination of the Seahawks terrible defense the last two weeks, the Niners being favorites, and Mason’s underlying efficiency make this a reasonable Higher even at the high total.
Brock Purdy Lower Than Pass Attempts
The thesis of this game is that the Niners and Seahawks are both going to run the ball efficiently and a lot. I’ve bet the Niners, so I think they will win the game. All of that is adding up to Brock being a glorified handoff artist this week.
This has all the makings of a low play game that features a running clock for most of it. That’s conducive to not throwing the ball a lot.
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