Underdog NBA Picks Vs. Sportsbook Player Prop Odds: NBA On TNT Friday Night

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Written By Josh Lander | Last Updated
underdog nba picks

We’ve got NBA odds for 10 games on Friday night, including player prop markets available at betting sites and Underdog Fantasy. After shopping for the best available prices, I found three player prop bets I like. All three plays are valuable as straight bets or as Underdog NBA picks. Read on to see why I’m taking an over with the Hawks’ Jalen Johnson and under bets for the Warriors’ Stephen Curry and the Magic’s Paolo Banchero.

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NBA Player Prop Bet: Jalen Johnson Over PTS+Reb (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 25.5 Points And Rebounds

Johnson is still flying under the radar of mainstream popularity, but he’s quietly become Atlanta’s third-best player. He’s earning the third-most minutes, and only Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and Bogdan Bogdanovic are making more field goal attempts. Considering the Hawks attempt the most shots per game in the league, pulling the fourth-most shots on the team equates to a healthy 12 FGA.

He’s also become the best rebounder on the squad, which is one area the Hawks were sorely lacking during his recent absence. Since returning from injury seven games ago, Johnson leads all Atlanta players with 16 rebound chances per game and 11.3 RPG.

The Pacers shouldn’t offer much resistance to the streaking Johnson. Indiana allows the most points per game to power forwards and the third-most rebounds. Their transition defense has been awful, allowing nearly 1.2 points per possession, seventh-worst in the NBA. Johnson gets out into the transition on offense more than any other Hawks player, which is a huge reason he shoots such a high percentage of his shots from inside of five feet.

Add on the fact that the Pacers send their opponents to the free-throw line more than any other team, and this is a ripe opportunity for Johnson to keep it going.

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Editor’s Note

NBA Player Prop Bet: stephen curry under PoinTS (0.5 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 26.5 Points

Steph has struggled mightily over the last month since Draymond Green was suspended. Curry has only gone over Friday’s points prop line twice in his last eight games. Three games ago, Chris Paul found out he would be sidelined for at least 4-6 weeks with a fractured left hand. In the two games without CP3 or Draymond, Steph put up nine and 15 points, averaging 27 minutes in two massive blowout losses.

The greatest three-point shooter of all time is due for positive regression. A 40-point performance with anywhere from nine-to-12 made threes feel as though it’s right around the corner. A matchup with the Bulls and Alex Caruso, however, is not the most realistic opportunity for that turnaround game.

Chicago limits opposing point guards to the fewest points per game. Only one PG, the Knicks’ Jalen Brunson, has reached 27 points against the Bulls when Caruso has been available to play. Other than that, Caruso’s stifling, high-pressure defense forces the ball out of most PGs’ hands before they can get a clean look at the basket.

Lately, I’ve been targeting under plays for Steph’s rebounds and assists props. Against Chicago, however, PGs are more likely to record assists, as the team’s high-pressure defense around the top of the key forces the ball into the hands of others. Eight assists and three rebounds are both realistic expectations for Curry tonight, so let’s stick with the points prop.

NBA Player Prop bet: paolo banchero under pTS (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

We’re getting really good value with an under for Banchero’s points prop. The reigning Rookie of the Year has to face a stingy Miami Heat defense without his top teammate, Franz Wagner. He also recently posted back-to-back 30-point performances against the Nuggets (impressive!) and the Hawks (not as impressive). As a result, his line on Friday night is inflated.

Jimmy Butler is out once again for Miami, which also contributes to a bloated line for Paolo. Butler also missed the last matchup between these two teams three weeks ago, and Banchero only managed 19 points. In that game, rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. guarded him for the majority of the game, shutting him down for zero points when he was the primary defender. Not only will Jaquez be draped all over him once more, but Bam Adebayo will also be waiting to help out down low.

In four games vs. Miami for his career, he’s averaging just 15.5 PPG in 36.6 MPG. He relies heavily on the free throw line to get his points, and the Heat limit opponents to the fourth-lowest free throw rate. I don’t expect many free throw attempts for the talented Banchero in this one.

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