Underdog Baseball DFS Picks: Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 3 Wednesday Night
Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated at October 16, 2024
Game 3 of the NLCS is here, with the Los Angeles Dodgers heading to New York to try and recapture a series lead in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series. Having given up home-field advantage in Game 2, they will need to get a win at Citi Field against the Mets. In Citi’s more pitcher-friendly confines, this matchup will be fascinating. Find my Underdog baseball DFS picks below for tonight's game.
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Underdog Baseball DFS Picks: Dodgers at Mets NLCS Game 3
With the Mets coming back to New York tied 1-1, they’ll be hoping for a pitching performance like they got in Game 2. Luis Severino takes the mound off the backs of a 6-inning win against the Phillies, while Walker Buehler goes for the Dodgers. Buehler was chased after 6 runs in 5 innings against the Padres.
Both teams will be hoping for better from their pitchers, and Citi Field will be beneficial. That said, both their last starts were in friendly domains, so it’s not that big of a deal. For this game, however, I’m expecting a good deal of contact.
Luis Severino Lower Than 2.0 Walks
Severino doesn’t throw that many walks - 2.97 per 9 innings this season, below league average - but there’s also every chance he doesn’t get too many cracks at the lineup. He gave up 3 runs on 6 hits against the Phillies and four runs on eight hits against the Brewers in his two playoff starts. They did manage to get 12 combined innings from him, but against the much more aggressive offense of the Dodgers, his leash might be much shorter.
The risk is that the strength at the top of the Dodgers lineup will incentivize them to pitch around Shohei, but that’s not happened so far this series. This was also the Mets’ strategy against Bryce Harper in the NLDS, but Severino didn’t walk Harper in their three at-bats. With the push equity on 2 and the fact that the Mets didn’t have to use their best bullpen arms much in Games 1 and 2, this should come through.
Walker Buehler Lower Than 4.0 Strikeouts
Buehler didn’t get a single strikeout against the Padres in his five innings of work in the NLDS. At his regular season pace of 7.64K/9, he would need to pitch five innings for a push and six to go higher than this number. The problem for anyone expecting Buehler to perform well is that there are two flaws with that logic.
The first is that getting that many innings from Buehler will be a stretch. He put up an ERA north of 5 in the regular season, and his first playoff start was worse. The Dodgers bullpen has had Tuesday off, which should allow for a quick hook if Buehler struggles. The other case for fewer strikeouts is that the Mets are middle in the pack for strikeout rate for the season and only struck out 6 times in Game 2. At that pace, Buehler will need to outperform - and that seems unlikely.
Francisco Lindor Higher Than 0.5 Runs
I could tell you the reason to bet this is Lindor has scored 8 runs in 9 playoff games. I could tell you the reason to bet this is his .372 OBP for the playoffs. If pressed, I could even point to the fact that if I’m expecting Buehler to get rocked, then Lindor will probably have something to do with it. But that’s not why I’m including this. I’m including this because Lindor rocks, and sometimes, that’s all it takes.
Best of luck with your Underdog baseball DFS picks.
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