UNC College Basketball Odds Vs. NC State: Will Tar Heels Cover At Wolfpack?
Ahead of this in-state rivalry, No. 7 North Carolina is positioned as a favorite at North Carolina State. Conversely, the Wolfpack are to deliver the outright upset at home. The total is . Will the Tar Heels cover the point spread on Wednesday night? Let’s dig into UNC basketball odds versus N.C. State, including key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
UNC basketball odds at N.C. state
How Did We Get Here?
While North Carolina has already reached the national championship game under Hubert Davis, this unit boasts the most upside among the three rosters he’s manned. Armando Bacot and RJ Davis remain from the Final Four squad. Transfers Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) provide the Tar Heels with much-needed floor-spacers and defensive pests.
There’s also the untapped potential of five-star freshman Elliot Cadeau. Like Auburn point guard Aden Holloway, Cadeau provides UNC with an even higher ceiling if the pass-first point guard (26.0% assist rate) refines his shooting efficiency. For context, his 0.79 points per shot (PPS) on jumpers ranks in the 29th percentile.
Therefore, it’s no surprise to see the uber-talented Tar Heels as a hefty favorite. Nevertheless, Saturday’s 10-point victory at Clemson is a tad deceiving. Speaking of faulty shooting, the Tigers went just 1-of-18 (0.6%) from deep. Overall, UNC’s opponents have accrued a 33.9% clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot looks. That isn’t sustainable.
The bigger uncertainty is whether the Wolfpack can capitalize on the Tar Heels’ eventual regression. DJ Horne & Co. rank slightly above average in perimeter efficiency (34.2%). If their 3-point looks aren’t dropping, UNC’s fast-break attack will exploit their defense in a hurry.
Bear in mind, N.C. State has allowed a subpar 1.07 points per possession (PPP) in transition. Additionally, Kevin Keats‘ squad has relied heavily on takeaways. Compiling turnovers hasn’t been much of a concern for UNC, as Davis is as reliable of a lead guard as they come.
Unless a hostile road environment victimizes the Tar Heels, they possess a clear-cut matchup advantage.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, UNC and N.C. State are separated by a tick under double digits. Even after factoring in home-court advantage for the Woldpack, my raw numbers give an edge to the Tar Heels.
Haslametrics projects a final score of 78.73-71.63, favoring UNC basketball odds. Erik Haslam, who owns and operates the college hoops analytics site, will join me on the Outside Shots podcast throughout the season. Listen to the latest episode below.
unc basketball odds: Player Props vs. n.c. state
This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for UNC vs. N.C. State, typically on the day of the game.
unc basketball Futures odds
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