UNC College Basketball Odds & Player Props Vs. Wake Forest: Will Tar Heels Cover Monday?
Ahead of tonight’s ACC clash, No. 3 North Carolina is set as a favorite against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are to cash in on the upset. Elsewhere, the total is . Will the Tar Heels cover the point spread? Let’s assess UNC basketball odds, including key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
UNC basketball odds vs. wake forest
How Did We Get Here?
After Saturday’s double-digit win at Boston College, UNC takes a step up in weight class against the Demon Deacons. The Tar Heels boast the 16th-ranked offensive efficiency (per Haslametrics). They’ve showcased more chemistry after adding Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) from the transfer portal. Those moves, along with the drop-off from the 2022 runner-up squad, ultimately sent now-Arizona guard Caleb Love packing.
At the other end, they’ve surrendered only 0.87 PPP versus conference foes. But they’ve been assisted by the opponent’s cold shooting. In particular, their ACC opponents have combined for 24-of-102 shooting (23.5%) from behind the arc.
Generally speaking, North Carolina isn’t as elite defensively as those numbers hint at. Center Armando Bacot is slow-footed in ball-screen coverage, and that has resulted in a slew of open perimeter looks. However, their opponents are hitting 42.2% of their uncontested jumpers (via Synergy).
Enter Wake Forest, which has covered in two of its last three contests, including a blowout win against Louisville over the weekend. Steve Forbes’ bunch has strung together a 39.2% three-point clip while manufacturing a top-80 scoring rate in that department. Transfers Hunter Sallis (Gonzaga) and Kevin Miller (Central Michigan) are at the forefront of its success, and the return of Damari Monsanto from a knee injury provides Forbes with even more bona fide shooting.
Moreover, Andrew Carr and Efton Reid, both Demon Deacons bigs, are capable of spacing out Bacot & Co. It makes Wake Forest a unique obstacle for the Tar Heels’ somewhat overrated defense.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, UNC and Wake Forest are separated by a tad under nine points. After incorporating home-court advantage at the Dean Smith Center, the Tar Heels deserve to be a slightly bigger favorite, according to my raw numbers. Bear in mind that UNC basketball odds may still fail to cover if Wake Forest continues its red-hot perimeter shooting.
Meanwhile, Haslametrics approximated a final score of 81.03-70.62, favoring UNC basketball odds. This projection aligns with my power ratings. Erik Haslam, who owns and operates this analytics site, will return to the Outside Shots podcast during March.
unc basketball odds: Player Props vs. Wake Forest
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