UNC College Basketball Odds & Player Props Vs. Flordia State: Will Tar Heels Cover Saturday?
Ahead of Saturday’s ACC affair, No. 3 North Carolina is set as a favorite at Florida State. The Seminoles are hefty underdogs to deliver an upset. Will the Tar Heels cover the point spread? Let’s assess UNC basketball odds, with key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
UNC basketball odds vs. Florida state
Is UNC’s Defense Legit?
According to Haslametrics’ efficiency ratings, the Tar Heels boast the fourth-ranked defense in college basketball. But there is a glaring outlier — perimeter efficiency. For context, their ACC opponents have shot 22.5% from behind the arc. The conference average is a 35.0% clip.
To their credit, North Carolina has excelled at forcing contested shots in isolation. They’ve yielded the ninth-lowest assist rate across D-I (35.4%) as a result. However, their ACC foes should be connecting on more triples. In fact, it’s the biggest difference from the conference average over the last five seasons, correlating with when the 3-point line was extended to FIBA territory.
When these teams faced off on Dec. 2, the Seminoles delivered a 12-of-28 (42.9%) performance from distance — en route to covering as 12.5-point underdogs. Surprisingly, FSU was well-positioned to win outright, yet UNC used a 35-8 second-half run to flip the script.
For Leonard Hamilton’s team to compete with the ACC favorite again, it will require a proficient shooting afternoon. Although the ‘Noles represent one of the lengthiest teams in the country, the Tar Heels rarely give up second-chance points. The 6-foot-11 Armando Bacot is the driving force on the glass, compiling a top-35 defensive rebounding rate.
At the other end, FSU must conjure up a formula to slow down RJ Davis. The senior guard can’t possibly catch up to Zach Edey, who is a favorite to win the Wooden Award, but he’s arguably the premier guard in the sport. Davis is also an elite playmaker on the break, averaging a robust 1.34 PPP in transition (via Synergy). If UNC consistently compiles stops, he’ll receive plenty more opportunities.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, UNC and Florida State are separated by roughly nine points. After accounting for home-court advantage at the Tucker Center, the spread is likely a bit inflated, according to my raw numbers.
Conversely, Haslametrics approximated a final score of 79.3-69.8, heavily favoring UNC basketball odds. Erik Haslam, who owns and operates this analytics site, will return to the Outside Shots podcast in March. TheLines.com’s managing editor Stephen Andress joins me each week to preview the weekend slate and discuss futures odds. Watch or listen below.
unc basketball odds: Player Props vs. Florida state
This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for UNC vs. Florida State, typically on the day of the game.
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Virginia allows betting on in-state schools but not props on in-state players. The remaining states with sportsbooks allow wagering (plus live bets) on college props, including in-state teams.
unc basketball Futures odds
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