The 2024 ACC Tournament semifinals begin on Friday, with the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6, 17-3) squaring off against the fourth-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers (22-10, 12-8). Tar Heels fans in North Carolina can take advantage of the best NC sportsbook promos — with March Madness odds nearing. The value adds up to $2,950 in bonus bets! We've ranked the top bonus codes for UNC odds near the bottom of this article.
unc basketball odds vs. Pitt
UNC Odds: ACC Tournament Preview
The betting markets for these ACC tournament odds make for an interesting handicap. UNC is a favorite, and the Panthers are on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the total is .
Will Tar Heels Cover?
UNC looked unstoppable in its first ACC tournament tilt against Florida State, securing a plus-26 rebounding advantage while tallying a season-high 24 fast-break points. In turn, Huebert Davis' crew notched a 25-point victory.
However, the Tar Heels rank No. 327 in open 3-point attempt rate allowed. Despite that, they're surrendering a 31.1% perimeter clip.
The Seminoles didn't make them make them pay, but the Panthers have a much higher probability of doing so. Jeff Capel's unit boasts a top-25 perimeter scoring rate. Panthers leading-scorer Blake Hinson, named to the All-ACC first team, knocked down four triples in Pitt's upset win over Wake Forest in the quarterfinals.
In their last meeting, they accrued a 5-of-29 (17.2%) shooting performance from behind the arc. I'd expect positive regression this time.
In fact, I bet the Panthers' ACC tournament odds on Thursday morning. Not only is Pitt a high-variance candidate if it's hitting perimeter shots at a high rate, but it also plays at a much more methodical tempo than UNC. Hence, the Panthers could disrupt the Tar Heels' flow if they limit their transition opportunities.
Moreover, Pitt can contend with North Carolina on the glass, generating a top-10 defensive rebounding rate. Although it's unlikely to get eight offensive boards from Ishmael Leggett, the ACC's sixth man of the year, the Panthers possess another variable to help impact the pace.
Predictions For UNC Odds
My raw numbers make the line closer to UNC -5.5, indicating an edge on Pitt +7 or better. Likewise, our partner Haslametrics forecasts a final score of 75.0-70.3, favoring the Panthers' odds regarding the point spread. If you believe UNC odds are overvalued, wagering on Pitt sooner rather than later is recommended.
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