UNC College Basketball Betting Odds & Player Props: Will Tar Heels Cover At Virginia?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
UNC Basketball Odds

Among Saturday’s ACC games, No. 10 North Carolina is stationed as a favorite at Virginia. The total is on sites with the best sportsbook promo codes. Will the Tar Heels cover the point spread, or will the ‘Hoos bounce back? Let’s assess UNC basketball odds at Virginia, including valuable metrics and matchups to hone in on.

The odds below reflect the best available in the state that you’re located in. Click any of them to place a bet.

UNC Basketball odds: spread, moneyline, total

The Tar Heel State announced North Carolina online sportsbooks will go live on March 11 — right in time for the ACC tournament.

Situational Spot Favors Virginia

If you’re unfamiliar with situational spots, they attempt to uncover circumstances where teams have exceeded or underperformed their normal level of play — relative to the moneyline or spread. In this case, the ‘Hoos last played on Monday, in which they fell to in-state rival Virginia Tech by 31 points. Hence, Virginia is motivated to bounce back, especially with its potential NCAA tournament bid more in question.

Additionally, Bennett’s squad showcases a 25-point differential for home and away splits in conference play. While this category doesn’t always forecast team performance, it’s worth noting Virginia’s methodical offense has fared better in Charlottesville, Va.

For reference, the opening odds had UNC as 2.5-point road favorites.

‘Hoos Schematic Edge?

You may see some handicappers cite that the Tar Heels haven’t tallied a road win against ‘Hoos in 12 years. That trend isn’t worth noting without context, considering teams’ yearly roster construction tends to shift.

Nevertheless, Bennett’s script hasn’t budged during that span. Virginia uses a blocker-mover offense. It’s essentially a motion offense incorporating extensive screening and cutting, as players read and react to how the opposition defends them.

UNC’s defensive spacing has been an issue all season, particularly because of its struggles defending these very sets. Tar Heels big man Armando Bacot is at the forefront of these concerns, as ACC foes have consistently attacked him in ball-screen action.

Over the last five games, they’ve surrendered a 75.9% at-the-rim field goal percentage. For reference, that ranks in the lowest percentile possible. Their opponents have also shot 46.2% in the paint during this stretch, good for the 10th percentile (via CBB Analytics).

Don’t let Virginia’s horrific 0.66 points per possession (PPP) at Va. Tech fool you. Reece Beekman & Co. should be proficient in the half-court, setting them up to control the tempo.

However, if this one comes down to the wire, the Cavaliers’ shaky free-throw shooting could haunt them. They are already 7-0 in games determined by six points or fewer. KenPom’s luck factor, which weighs these types of variables, pins them at No. 10. Therefore, negative variance could be en route for Virginia.

  • Related: Which Final Four Odds Most Resemble UConn’s Trajectory In 2022-23?

Utilizing Power Ratings

My raw numbers make this spread closer to North Carolina -2, considering the situational spot for the ‘Hoos. In recent years, the market has adjusted for home spots. Unsurprisingly, my projection aligns with the initial spread.

Similarly, Haslametrics approximated a final score of 66.5-63.0, slightly favoring UNC basketball odds. Erik Haslam owns and operates the analytics site and will return to Outside Shots once conference tournaments are underway.

TheLines.com’s managing editor Stephen Andress co-hosts with me biweekly to discuss the slate and a bevy of betting odds. Catch this weekend’s preview below.

  • You can subscribe to the audio-only version of the show on AppleSpotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

unc basketball odds at virginia: Player Props

This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for UNC at Virginia, typically on gameday.

Where Can You Bet On College Basketball Player Props?

Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia all outlaw betting on college props. Other states match the guidance of banning in-state school prop betting.

Virginia allows betting on in-state schools but not props on in-state players. The remaining states with sportsbooks allow wagering (plus live bets) on college props, including in-state teams.

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