UNC College Basketball Odds & Player Props Vs. Louisville: Will Tar Heels Cover Wednesday?
Ahead of Wednesday’s ACC battle, No. 4 North Carolina is stationed as a favorite against Louisville. The Cardinals are a hefty to cash in on a stunning upset. Meanwhile, the total is . Will the Tar Heels cover the point spread? Let’s assess UNC basketball odds, including key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
UNC basketball odds vs. Louisville
Sportsbooks in North Carolina are projected to launch in early 2024. If that occurs without a hiccup, legal online betting would be available for March Madness odds and more. Over in the Bluegrass State, Kentucky sports betting launched in September.
How Did We Get Here?
After a 33-point blitzkrieg against Syracuse on Saturday, the Tar Heels have another home contest versus a lowly ACC foe. RJ Davis & Co. owns the 15th-ranked offensive efficiency (per Haslametrics). This unit boasts more cohesion after adding Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) from the transfer portal, which inevitably sent Duke slayer Caleb Love packing.
At the other end, they’ve yielded only 0.82 PPP against conference foes. But they’ve also been assisted by the opponent’s inopportune cold streaks. In particular, Pitt, Clemson, N.C. State and Syracuse have combined for 12-of-77 shooting (15.6%) from 3-point land.
Generally speaking, North Carolina isn’t an elite defensive team — or at least as sound as those numbers suggest. Center Armando Bacot is still slow-footed in ball-screen coverage, and that has translated into a multitude of open looks. Yet, as previously noted, their opponents are knocking down 32.8% of their uncontested jumpers (via Synergy).
Enter Louisville, which has covered in consecutive games, including an outright win at Miami (Fla.) as a 16.5-point underdog. It’s scuffled from behind the arc for much of the 2023-24 campaign, but it’s produced a 38.8% clip in ACC play. Sophomore guard Mike James is at the forefront of their perimeter revival, averaging 23.0 points per game during this two-game stretch.
If the Cardinals’ positive shooting regression continues under Kenny Payne, they could certainly cover this immense spread.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, UNC and Louisville are separated by a smidge under 20 points. After incorporating home-court advantage at the Dean Smith Center, the Tar Heels are surprisingly a tad overvalued, according to my raw numbers. However, the Cardinals’ propensity to cough up a bevy of unforced miscues makes them the ultimate plug-your-nose ‘dog.
Conversely, Haslametrics projects a final score of 89.1-60.7, heavily favoring UNC basketball odds. Erik Haslam, who owns and operates this analytics site, will return to Outside Shots in March. I’m also joined by special guests, like ESPN analyst Tom Crean, on the latest show.
unc basketball odds: Player Props vs. Louisville
This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for UNC vs. Louisville, typically on the day of the game.
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Where Can You Bet On College Basketball Player Props?
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia all outlaw betting on college props. Ten other states match the guidance of banning in-state school prop betting.
Virginia allows betting on in-state schools but not props on in-state players. The remaining states with sportsbooks allow wagering on college props, including in-state teams.
unc basketball Futures odds
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