UNC College Basketball Odds Vs. Syracuse: Will Tar Heels Cover Against Orange?
Ahead of Saturday’s ACC clash, No. 7 North Carolina is stationed as a favorite against Syracuse. Conversely, the Orange are a hefty underdog to cash in on an outright upset. Meanwhile, the total is . Will the Tar Heels cover the point spread? Let’s assess UNC basketball odds, including key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
UNC basketball odds vs. Syracuse
How Did We Get Here?
After blitzing the in-state rival Wolfpack on Wednesday, the Tar Heels return home for the first time in ACC play. RJ Davis & Co. own the 19th-ranked offensive efficiency (per Haslametrics). Their attack boasts much more fluidity after bringing Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) aboard in the transfer portal, which inevitably sent Duke slayer Caleb Love packing.
At the other end, they’ve yielded only 0.83 PPP against conference foes. But they’ve also been assisted by the opponent’s inopportune cold streaks. In particular, Pitt, Clemson, and N.C. State have combined 8-of-68 shooting (11.8%) from 3-point land.
Generally speaking, North Carolina isn’t an elite defensive team — or at least as dominant as those numbers suggest. Big man Armando Bacot is still slow-footed in ball-screen coverage, and that’s translated into a handful of open shots. Nevertheless, as previously alluded to, their opponents are cashing in on 33.3% of uncontested jumpers (via Synergy).
Enter Syracuse, which showcases a jump-shooting efficiency that ranks in the 12th percentile. Overall, the Orange have compiled a subpar 31.1% perimeter clip. Granted, Judah Mintz & Co. may have an easier time working into their sets since UNC rarely applies a heavy dose of ball pressure. But they’re also not your traditional floor-spacing lineup, delivering a bottom-70 in 3-point scoring rate across D-I.
Couple that with Syracuse’s scuffling post-up defense, which is Bacot’s best offensive attribute, and there isn’t much reason for optimism with the Orange.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, UNC and Syracuse are separated by nine or so points. After taking into account home-court advantage at the Dean Smith Center, the Tar Heels are unsurprisingly overvalued, according to my raw numbers. However, the Orange’s inconsistent stretches from behind the arc make them an unappealing underdog.
On the flip side, Haslametrics projects a final of 81.3-65.1, favoring UNC basketball odds. Erik Haslam, who owns and operates this analytics site, will return to Outside Shots in March. I’m also joined by special guests, like ESPN analyst Tom Crean, on the latest podcast.
unc basketball odds: Player Props vs. Syracuse
This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for UNC vs. Syracuse, typically on the day of the game.
unc basketball Futures odds
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