Will Experience Matter in Arsenal’s Title Chase?

Was Pep Guardiola trying to get under the skin of Arsenal and Mikel Arteta? Or was the City boss offering a cautionary tale to those expecting to crown the Gunners champions for the first time in over two decades?

That’s now a fair question, after Guardiola discussed the title race and suggested that a lack of experience could make this harder than Arsenal would like.

“We have experience of that in the trebles, quadruples,” Guardiola said. “You have to arrive in the decisive moment of the season with the players in that position.”

Left unsaid was the fact that Arsenal lack that experience. The Gunners have finished in second place in three consecutive years, and it appears that they’ll go one better this year. With under 10 games to play and Arsenal holding a seven-point lead on Manchester City, mental tactics might be the only way Guardiola has to give his own team a chance to win.

But does it really matter that Arsenal haven’t won a title in more than 20 years? The stats don’t seem to bear that out, and here are a few examples why.

Leicester City, 2015-16

The biggest counter to Guardiola’s stance is what Leicester City did during its miracle season. The Foxes were supposed to crack under the pressure of being in a title race. They were supposed to fall by the wayside and end up as just another good team that landed in a European spot without winning the title.

Instead, Leicester just kept winning. Over the final 20 matchdays, Leicester’s only defeat came against Arsenal. The Foxes closed out the year with only three defeats, and two of them were the two games with the Gunners. Even with getting swept by Arsenal, Leicester never felt much of a threat from below. If not for the second loss to Arsenal, Leicester wouldn’t have lost a match in 2016

It’s not a perfect comparison, because there’s much more pressure on Arsenal than what Leicester faced. Nobody expected that Leicester team to even come close to a championship; Arsenal has finished second three years running. The Gunners are very much a traditional power with the expectations that come with that, and that’s where Arteta needs to handle things. If he can manage the outside noise, Arsenal will be able to withstand the pressure.

Liverpool, 2019-20

This is the other major example of a first-time champion over the past decade, and it shows how the pressure can work differently at a big club. Liverpool was never threatened in its run to the crown; it didn’t spend a single matchday outside of first place. Its title run had an air of inevitability to it, mainly because the Reds didn’t lose a match until matchday 28.

But when that loss happened, the narrative shifted. Liverpool did show signs of struggling with the pressure, losing twice more over the final 10 matches of the year. It didn’t make a difference in the table; Liverpool won the title by 18 points. But if the Reds hadn’t built up such a big lead, it could have mattered greatly.

This is the danger for Arsenal and Arteta. They do not have the luxury of playing with house money that Leicester City did. The Gunners’ fan base expects a title to come, and the pressure is on after three straight runner-up finishes. A side like Man City can exploit that by keeping the pressure on until the final matchday.

A Test for Arteta

Guardiola knows what he’s doing. There’s a reason he brought up the treble and City’s success at pulling it off: he knows that exploiting Arsenal’s expectations might be his last and best card to play this season. Arteta, to his credit, hasn’t taken the bait and has kept the Gunners on the task at hand.

How Arsenal chooses to prioritize its matches will be crucial. The Gunners have to decide how much value to place on cup ties and Champions League versus winning their first title since the Invincibles. It’s a tough tightrope to walk, but Arteta has done the job well to date.