Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction, Tips for 06/09: Gunners to Continue Capital Dominance

There’s a London Derby to complete a busy Premier League weekend and we have Arsenal v Chelsea predictions at 17/2, 11/8  and 2/1 ahead of what promises to be an intriguing match-up at the Emirates.

James’ Arsenal vs Chelsea Predictions can be backed at Matchbook and odds are correct as of 9am on Sunday 6th September. 

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction: A Routine Home Win?

While Chelsea enjoyed dominance in this fixture during a poor era in Arsenal’s history post-invincibles, it’s safe to say the Gunners are well on top in recent years.

In fact, Chelsea have only beaten their London rivals once in the 2020s, with Arsenal winning 11 of the 16 meetings in that time.

We’re also potentially looking at a midfield mismatch, following Chelsea’s Deadline Day sale of Enzo Fernandez and subsequent failure to replace him. And with Arsenal looking so strong in the middle of the park, I can only see this going one way.

I’m kicking off my Arsenal v Chelsea predictions with a home win, which at 8/11 with Matchbook, looks about right value-wise.

Gabriel To Open His Account

Chelsea took their goals superbly when beating Brighton 4-3 last week, but they didn’t particularly convince in their own penalty area as the visitors pounced on loose defending to take the gloss off what should’ve been a more comprehensive win.

And despite some experienced reinforcements, this is still a young side that has a lot to learn when it comes to defending set pieces.

It just feels like there’s a lot of ways for this Arsenal outfit to find the net against Chelsea and corners could well be a fruitful avenue for them. No side scored more than Arsenal’s 23 from set pieces last season.

That opens the door for Gabriel, who is a menace in both boxes and has an excellent scoring record for a centre back, averaging a goal every 9.8 games. With that in mind, he looks a good pick at 20/1 to open the scoring, or 17/2 to find the net anytime. 

Chelsea Cards

He was rested in last week’s win over former club Brighton, but following Enzo’s exit I’m expecting Moises Caicedo to return to the starting line-up in north London.

The Ecuadorian was Chelsea’s most booked player last season with 11 yellows in 33 outings and he’s likely to have a busy afternoon against Arsenal’s fluid forward line and granite midfield.

If we’re going for an Arsenal v Chelsea prediction in the yellow card market it has to be Caicedo, and he’s available at around 11/8.

And Chelsea, on the whole, pick up way more bookings than Arsenal. Only Spurs players were booked more often than Chelsea's last season, and no side picked up fewer yellows than Arsenal. This season, meanwhile, Chelsea have four bookings compared to Arsenal’s two.

8/11 for Chelsea to pick up more cards is surely a regulation bet builder leg.

Final Prediction

The simple facts are that this is a Chelsea side that is still in the early stages of its evolution, while the Gunners are on the cusp of peak maturity.

The visitors can certainly trouble their hosts thanks to a hugely talented front line, but I don’t think they quite have the nous to come away from the Emirates with three points.

Man City’s fine start means Arsenal need to keep their foot on the pedal and I think they’ll be too strong here. Despite a winless eleven-match run against the Gunners, Chelsea have scored in seven of those meetings and I fancy them to do the same here.

So, my final Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction is the home win and both teams to score double, available to back at around 2/1.