France vs Italy Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips: Zizou on a Roll

Written By James Capps | Published at October 2, 2026

Jul 4, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; France forward Michael Olise (11) in a game against Paraguay during a Round of 16 match in the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Philadelphia Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

It’s been a perfect start to Zinedine Zidane’s tenure with Les Bleus and my France vs Italy prediction is that his 100% record will continue against an Italy side that has had a turbulent 12 months.

France vs Italy Odds

They’re two giants of European football, but France are clearly the stronger side on paper and that is reflected in the betting with PricedUp:

1X2: France 2/5, Draw 15/4, Italy 11/2.
Both Teams to Score: Yes 4/7, No 4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Overs 2/5, Unders 7/4

You’d have to make France clear favourites here, but it’s well worth noting that Kylian Mbappe will miss the clash in Paris after suffering a knee injury last week.

These two faced off in the previous Nations League cycle, with both sides picking up 3-1 away wins. Will we see something similar once again?

James’ France vs Italy Predictions can be backed at PricedUp and odds are correct as of 9am on Friday 2nd October.

France Betting Trends

The new era under Zidane has been solid, if not unspectacular, thus far. Two games, two wins and two clean sheets looks handy enough, but they’ve only found the net twice in that run.

France are without a competitive home defeat since September 2024, although that came against Friday night’s opponents.
Despite an overall losing record against Italy (12 wins to Italy’s 19) they’ve won ten of the 15 meetings since 1982, losing only three.
All of France’s last five wins have come without conceding a goal.

Italy Betting Trends

Roberto Mancini is back for another go at the Italian job and he’s one win from two, after following up last weekend’s 2-0 home defeat to Belgium with an excellent 4-1 victory in Turkey on Monday.

Five of the Azzurri’s last six matches have seen under 2.5 goals.
It’s been over a year since their last away defeat, winning six of seven on their travels since June 2025.
In a 2024-25 Nations League group featuring both France and Belgium, Italy finished level on points with the French, before bowing out in the play-offs to Germany.

France vs Italy Prediction: France to Win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/8

I firmly expect France to go out and win this game, but the formbook suggests we won’t be treated to the goal fest that the bookies are perhaps expecting.

Italy have shown plenty of steel on the road over the past year and they will always be a defensively sound outfit. Whether or not they have the firepower to trouble a France defence that has begun the Nations League with two clean sheets, however, is another question entirely.

There’s also extra incentive for Zidane to get a positive result, with this being the first time he’s faced Italy since the infamous headbutt on Marco Matterazzi that brought Zizou’s illustrious career to an end in 2006.

The Under 3.5 Goals angle gives us a bit of protection against a single Italy goal and is a much more appealing option than the straight France win at 2/5.

More France vs. Italy Picks and Best Bets

Michael Olise to Score @ 5/4: The Bayern Munich man has a goal contribution in both of France’s Nations League games and is set to start tonight.
France -2.5 Corner Handicap @ 10/11: Italy have had only six corners in their last two matches and if France dominate as expected, they should comfortably outscore the visitors.
France 3-1 Italy Correct Score @ 9/1: If you like omens, 3-1 has been the result in each of the last four meetings.