Group D 2026 World Cup Odds & Betting Preview: Which Team Has Best Chances?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is about to kick off, and co-hosts United States start their competition with a Group D fixture against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium.

USA and Paraguay will go up against Australia and Turkey in an ultra-competitive Group D. Picking the top two is an arduous task, but who will make the knockouts?

World Cup Group D Winner Odds

United States, Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia will battle it out in Group D of the 2026 World Cup. This group is one of the toughest to call, but the Stars and Stripes are fancied to finish top ahead of Turkey. What will unfold in Group D?

Odds taken at PricedUp at 11:35 on 12 June

United States

The United States national team are looking to make an impression in front of their home fans, with all three Group D games taking place on American soil. After the Paraguay game, USA play Australia in Seattle and Turkey in California.

The States have made it to the last 16 in three of the previous four World Cups. Getting out of the group is a must for Maurico Pochettino and his players, and United States are the bookies’ favourites to win the group.

Turkey

Some football fans are tipping Turkey to be the dark horse of the 2026 World Cup. The Turks have some exciting players, especially Real Madrid wonderkid Arda Guler. Vincenzo Montella’s men could be the ones to keep an eye on this summer.

Turkey are currently the second favourites to win Group D, but there is not a lot in it. The final group game against America in Inglewood in late June could be pivotal in deciding the Group D winner.

Paraguay

South American nations are capable of anything in the World Cup, and Paraguay have the potential to go far in North America. The Paraguayans only just qualified, but can they cause a few upsets in the main tournament?

The White and Reds begin their tournament with a game against the co-hosts in Inglewood. They then face Turkey and Australia in Santa Clara. Paraguay are the third favourites to win the group, but can they sneak into the top two?

Australia

Australia are the Group D underdogs, priced at 8/1 to take first place. The Socceroos are hoping to reach the knockout stage for the third time. In Qatar in 2022, the Aussies lost to eventual winners Argentina in the Round of 16.

Their opening fixture against Turkey at BC Place in Vancouver will be huge. If they can pick up a positive result, Tony Popovic’s men will fancy their chances against the States in Seattle on matchday two.

The Best Odds at these Bookmakers for World Cup 2026 Group D

What teams are in the World Cup Group D?

Similar to the corresponding Group A World Cup odds of each team, the teams in a group have a lot of influence on the odds you get. Some teams are more balanced than others, featuring star players that give them an edge. The same applies to World Cup Group D, so we'll be looking at all the teams here. Knowing this, here are the teams in this group:

1. USA
2. Turkey
3. Paraguay
4. Australia

Now, let's take a look at each one, their FIFA rankings, and what to expect from them in this tournament.

USA - Strong favorite to top Group D

As one of the co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, the United States received an automatic spot in the tournament. Still, this is a team to watch out for as they enter as the favorites in this group. The United States ranks 16th in the FIFA rankings, which gives you an idea of its capacity.

At the helm of affairs is the manager Mauricio Pochettino, whose vast experience has seen him lead Chelsea, Tottenham, and even Southampton. He also has a great squad to rely on, with Folarin Balogun most likely to take the lead on the attack, considering he has already scored 19 goals for Monaco during the 2025 - 2026 season.

Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie are also worth keeping tabs on, and should be instrumental in getting the United States its deserved victory.

Turkey - Strong Contender to top Group D

The Turkish team has not qualified for the World Cup since finishing 3rd in 2002, making its appearance this year a significant milestone, ending a 24-year drought. Of course, it had to work hard to get a slot after finishing second to Spain in the UEFA Qualifying Group E. While Spain gained entry, Turkey had to move to the European Playoffs, where it defeated Romania 1-0 before moving to the final. However, they officially secured a spot in the World Cup only after defeating Kosovo 1-0.

Turkey is currently 22nd in the FIFA rankings, which is decent. Vincenzo Montella, who guided Turkey through the qualifying campaign, will be tasked with continuing his streak of success in the tournament. Of course, this is with help from a solid squad, including Kerem Aktürkoğlu, who scored the final goal to help Turkey qualify for the World Cup, Hakan Calhanoglu, and Arda Guler. If the USA is worried about any team in this group, it should be Turkey.

Paraguay - A Potential Threat

Paraguay clinched a spot in the 2026 World Cup after finishing 6th in the CONMEBOL standings. This was the final direct South American qualification spot, which also ended their 16-year absence from the World Cup Odds. The team's performance was impressive under Gustavo Alfaro, who took over with only 5 points from 6 games. With his guidance, Paraguay went on a nine-game streak, which included 5 wins.

During this streak, they caused major upsets by defeating Brazil 1-0 and Argentina 2-1. These are some of the highest-ranked teams, which is a sign that Paraguay can be a huge threat. However, what ultimately secured their place in the World Cup was a draw against Ecuador. Antonio Sanabria, who was the top scorer during the CONMEBOL qualifying, will be leading the offense, alongside Gabriel Ávalos and Alex Arce.

Australia - The Underdog

While Australia sits at number 24 in the FIFA rankings, it is considered the underdog in Group D. Australia finished second behind Japan in AFC Qualifying Group C, securing a spot in the tournament. The team had a rough start in the third round of qualifying, but after Tony Popovic took over as manager in late 2024, there was a noticeable change.

The game that sealed the deal was a 2-1 victory over Saudi Arabia, after a 1-0 win over Japan a couple of days prior. If anything, this shows that the team is capable of surprises and can cause upsets if undermined. Mitch Duke, who scored the essential goals, including the one that enabled them to qualify, will definitely be a key player during the tournament.

Matches that could decide the Group D World Cup odds

Similar to the Group B World Cup odds, some games could influence the odds for Group D. To help you figure them out, we'll highlight the schedule for the upcoming games, along with our prediction.

Pros and cons of betting on the Group D World Cup odds

Here are the upsides and downsides of betting on Group D at the 2026 World Cup:

Pros and cons

• Decent value on favorites since it is a competitive group
• Potential value in backing underdogs
• Numerous markets to choose from

• A balanced group that makes it hard to predict winners

Our tips for betting on the best Group D World Cup odds

Regardless of whether you want to wager on Group D or Group C World Cup odds, you need some type of strategy instead of going in blindly or betting with emotions. We've outlined a few tips to help improve your decision-making when backing a team.

• Do your research first. This will give you actual insights into the team, suspensions, and injuries before the start of any game
• Pay attention to the team's current form rather than its reputation. Teams change, and following these changes can be key to making the right bets.
• Don't make bets based on emotions. This is one of the quickest ways to make the wrong wagers and lose funds.
• Try out various World Cup markets to see which works. There are more than enough opportunities to leverage instead of sticking with one.
• Create a budget and stick with it. Bankroll management is even more important in exciting tournaments like the World Cup.

Conclusion: The USA is the favorite in the World Cup Group D

The USA football team will be starting the tournament as the favorites. However, it is going to be a tough road with Turkey contending for the top spot. Even Paraguay has a playstyle that can make it frustrating for the US team, while Australia is a team full of surprises.

In essence, these will be tricky games, and only time will tell who comes out on top. We recommend doing your research and signing up on one of our recommended World Cup sportsbooks to get the best odds for the World Cup Group D games.

Group D World Cup odds FAQs