What are the Most Likely Group Stage Upsets at the World Cup?

With just days remaining until the tournament gets underway in the USA, Canada and Mexico, we're taking a look at the most likely Group Stage upsets at this year's FIFA World Cup.

The World Cup always delivers drama, but nothing captures the imagination quite like a major upset. Every tournament produces unexpected results that remind supporters why international football is so unpredictable.

Over the years, underdogs have continued to prove they can compete with the sport’s traditional giants.

The expanded 2026 World Cup format, featuring 48 teams across, could create even more surprises.

With more nations qualifying and additional pressure in tightly balanced groups, one surprise loss could be catastrophic.

Several group-stage fixtures already stand out as potential shock results waiting to happen.

Below are five of the most likely Group Stage upsets we think could happen at the World Cup.

Most Likely Group Stage Upsets At The World Cup

Croatia vs England

First up, England and Croatia meet in a repeat of the 2018 semi-final. Thomas Tuchel's England will be the favourites, but Croatia have proved they are always a dangerous opponent.

As it stands, the Three Lions are 1.35 favourites with most UK betting sites to win Group L. However, slip up against Croatia, and they could easily find themselves struggling to qualify for the knockouts.

Despite an ageing squad, Croatia still possess tournament experience that few nations can match after reaching the 2018 final and finishing third in 2022.

Croatia’s technical midfield quality and tactical discipline could frustrate England, and we could see a major upset.

Morocco vs Brazil

Morocco defeating Brazil may sound unlikely, but recent history suggests it is entirely possible.

The Atlas Lions stunned the football world in Qatar by becoming the first African nation ever to reach a World Cup semi-final, defeating Spain, Portugal and Belgium along the way.

They remain one of the most organised defensive teams in international football and are dangerous on the counterattack.

Brazil, meanwhile, continue to carry the pressure to finally deliver another World Cup title.

Although Brazil possess superior individual quality, Morocco’s tactical structure and form for upsets make them a dangerous opponent.

In a one-off group-stage game, the gap between the two teams may be much smaller than many expect.

Saudi Arabia vs Spain

Saudi Arabia already produced one of the greatest shocks in World Cup history when they defeated Argentina 2-1 in the group stage in 2022.

Spain will dominate possession and create chances, but Saudi have improved significantly in recent years and are no longer an easy opponent.

Their aggressive pressing and quick transitions could trouble Spain if La Roja become complacent.

Realistically, Spain will still be overwhelming favourites, but World Cups have repeatedly shown that possession-heavy teams can become vulnerable if they fail to convert chances early.

Senegal vs France

This fixture immediately brings back memories of Senegal’s famous 1-0 win over reigning champions France in 2002. It remains one of the greatest opening-game shocks in tournament history and proved African sides can compete with football’s elite.

France are once again among the favourites to win the competition, but Senegal possess athleticism, pace and tournament experience throughout their squad. Their ability to defend compactly while attacking quickly on the break could create major problems for the French.

Japan vs Netherlands

Japan have quietly become one of the most dangerous teams outside football’s traditional superpowers. At the 2022 World Cup, they defeated both Germany and Spain in the group stage, showcasing their technical quality and relentless work rate.

The odds will still favour the Netherlands, but Japan’s fast transitions and intelligent pressing could cause serious issues.

Japan are no longer simply a disciplined underdog, they are a genuinely strong side capable of defeating elite European opposition.

The World Cup has always been football’s home of unpredictability, and the 2026 tournament looks set to continue that tradition.

Whether it is Morocco repeating their heroics, Saudi Arabia shocking another giant, or Japan continuing their rise, fans should expect plenty of drama once the group stage begins.