Alcaraz Moves to Odds-On After US Open Fourth Round Win

Written By James Capps | Published at September 7, 2026
Tennis - U.S. Open - Flushing Meadows, New York, United States - September 6, 2026 Spain's Carlos Alcaraz celebrates winning his round of 16 match against Tommy Paul of the U.S. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Robert Deutsch TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Pre-tournament US Open favourite Carlos Alcaraz is now odds-on to win a third Flushing Meadows crown after crushing Tommy Paul in straight sets.

American Paul began the match brightly with a superb forehand winner down the line in the third game to bring the crowd to its feet at the Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York.

But Alcaraz responded with a stunning baseline winner of his own in the following game, and with the first set heading for a tie-break, a wayward forehand from Paul handed the Spaniard the crucial break to win the opener 6-4.

Returning Alcaraz in Ominous Form

And from there, there was no turning back.

A quite brilliant cross-court forehand in the second game of the second set handed Alcaraz three break points, and a kind net cord allowed him to simply put away the first of those to tighten his grip on the match. The players traded breaks, but Alcaraz’s power from the back of the court was too much for Paul to handle as he took a commanding 6-4 6-3 lead.

The writing was on the wall after the third game of the third set, as Alcaraz superbly telegraphed a Paul passing shot, forcing an error that secured a break that put the seven-time major winner on his way to victory.

And after a trademark cross-court winner set up match point, Paul was unable to return another fierce serve, securing Alcaraz a quarter-final date with eighth seed home favourite Ben Shelton.

The Betting Lowdown

The win makes Alcaraz a 4/6 favourite to win the US Open title, with Alexander Zverev further back at 9/4. The German faces Luciano Darderi tonight for a place in the last eight.

Shelton is the leading American in the betting at 7/1 and is joined by compatriots Frances Tiafoe and unseeded Alex Michelson, who meet in the quarter-finals on Tuesday.