Forest Expose Man City Flaws and Deepen Relegation Fears: Analysis

Many a pundit and media outlet has tried to predict whether or not Manchester City will be relegated this season.

It’s all speculation at this point, as we have no idea what kind of point deduction – if any – the Premier League will dish out for those 114 guilty charges.

The assumption is that a point deduction will be one of the chosen penalties, with a loss of anything from 60-100 points likely to be curtains for the Cityzens’ top-flight status.

But a deduction of 50 points? That’s where things get interesting, as history dictates that if City win 85 or more points from their performances on the pitch, they might still have a chance of avoiding the dreaded drop.

They’re currently averaging 2.1 points per game heading into the international break, which – over the course of a 38-game campaign – works out to a total of 79 points.

So the Cityzens still need to improve even if they are to avoid relegation in our hypothetical scenario… and, given the evidence of their 1-3 defeat to Nottingham Forest on Saturday, Enzo Maresca certainly has his hands full in that regard.

Chances Going Begging

If you look at the raw stats, this was the classic Manchester City performance of ball monopolisation, territorial domination and chance creation:

• Possession: Forest 22% v 78% City
• Expected Goals (xG): Forest 1.06 v 1.76 City
• Touches in Opposition Box: Forest 14 v 33 City
• Corners: Forest 3 v 7 City
• Total Shots: Forest 11 v 12 City
• Big Chances: Forest 1 v 3 City

But as is often the case, the stats don’t quite tell the whole story.

That said, we can look to the ‘big chance’ column as an advisory guide: on another day, City could and perhaps should have scored three times. Forest, meanwhile, took advantage of some fine finishing to outperform both their big chance and xG creation.

It was notable that Erling Haaland had an off day in front of goal. He was presented with 0.50xG worth of chances, and one of those – a shot from close range after rounding the goalkeeper – really ought to have ended up in the back of the net.

This was just a bad day at the office for the Norwegian, rather than a damning sign of decline, but it’s still worth reiterating that when the Cityzens’ prolific marksman doesn’t have his shooting boots on, they aren’t blessed with many other routes to goal.

Neither are Arsenal, you might argue. That’s true, but the Gunners have a world-class defensive structure that enables them to keep clean sheets a-plenty. City, for now at least, are not blessed with that luxury…

City Show Vulnerability in Transition

Maresca’s side rank sixth for xG conceded, plus 13th for saves per match this term. In short, they are so much easier to cut through than they have been in seasons past, while Gianluigi Donnarumma is far busier than you would expect a Manchester City goalkeeper to be.

And there’s a few reasons for that, but one of the most pertinent is just how vulnerable they are when losing possession of the ball in the attacking phase – and how slow and/or unable they are to react to the opposition counter-attack.

That was in evidence for Forest’s second on Saturday. City were in possession about 30 yards from the hosts’ goal, with Iliman Ndiaye attempted to thread a ball over the top. That was headed away, and as Ndiaye and Elliot Anderson hesitated, Xaver Schlager stole in and nicked possession.

In the ensuing counter raid, Liam Delap receives the ball and is ahead of every City outfield player bar Ruben Dias – so out of shape are Maresca’s side in transition.

Marc Guehi doesn’t have the recovery pace to close Delap down, Dias does very little of anything useful and so the Forest frontman is free to hammer the ball past Donnarumma.

Deja Vu All Over Again

It was a case of rinse and repeat for Forest’s third goal – this time, City lost a 50/50 on the edge of the Tricky Trees’ penalty area, Delap picked up the loose ball and powered past a few half-hearted tackles.

Morgan Gibbs White progressed the ball as City floundered, and the 3v2 in Forest’s favour ended up with Delap once again firing home a sublime finish.

There just seemed to be a lack of urgency on the part of City to get back into position, with a near-absent midfield providing little in the way of security to the defenders behind them.

In an age of extensive video analysis, opponents will already be plotting City’s downfall the next time they meet: sit deep, soak up pressure and then trigger the press at the right moment… creating a quick transition that the boys in light blue simply don’t have the tools or the tactics to defend against.

Press Resistance

Forest’s first goal on Saturday was as basic as it gets.

City were knocking the ball around in a bid to beat the Tricky Trees’ high press, with Josip Gvardiol receiving possession with his back to the play. The Croatian scanned and looked over his shoulder, so there’s excuse for then having his pocket pinched by Jair Cunha.

So out of shape were City that Forest had a 4v2 advantage on the edge of their opponents’ box – Cunha opting to go it alone and slide home a cool left-footed finish.

It happened again and again. When pressed, Rayan Cherki played a horrible chipped pass into Abdukodir Khusanov, who miscontrolled and tried to stab it back to the Frenchman, who was off balance.

Once again, Forest stole in and set off on a counter attack, cut through City’s lines with ease and were left ruining James McAtee’s wasteful finish against his old club.

Absent Friends

And this happened time and time again; not just on Saturday, but in prior games as well. Under Pep Guardiola, City had a sureness in possession that combatted the risk of fast breaks and transitions. But their players are now making errors with the ball in the final third… and, in some cases, they’re being punished for it in the ultimate fashion.

Maybe the loss of Bernardo Silva and Rodri is being more harshly felt than expected. They offered City a security in possession with their ability to recycle the ball, while the Spaniard in particular was a master at breaking up the play whenever his side was on the receiving end of a counter raid.

There are still question marks about Elliot Anderson defensively, while Enzo Fernandez is more chaos than control – the pair, as a midfield pivot, perhaps leave Maresca lacking in those key areas of transitional defending and the safe recycling of possession.

And that’s not something that can be solved easily… unless Maresca is willing to tear up his tactical playbook and start again.

Contrasting Fortunes

Anyone that follows the data will know that Forest are nowhere near as bad as the league table suggests – indeed, they’re tracking like a top six contender based on the xG numbers.

This was a performance that bore all the hallmarks of classic Oliver Glasner. Forest were defensively compact, got bodies behind the ball and only pressed at the most opportune moment – maximising the effectiveness of their counter attacks.

Schlager was colossal in breaking up City’s play, while Gibbs-White and Delap appear to be developing an understanding that could bode very well for the East Midlands outfit.

Now, they need to find ways to be effective against more conservative teams; those who won’t present the gifts that City did in transition. But Forest fans have plenty of reasons to be cheerful.

Dreading the Drop

Based on this performance, the Cityzens’ hopes of reaching 85 points – and potentially avoiding relegation this term, deduction pending – are slim at best.

As unlikely as it seems, some of their players appear to be devoid of confidence in possession; often choosing the easy ball over the line-breaking pass. To make matters worse, when pressed and harried, they can look weak and fragile – not an accusation that could be levelled at Pep’s City very often.

In his short managerial career so far, Maresca has shown a stubbornness in his tactical make-up. He will play a variant of 4-2-3-1 as a starting shape, with either of his full backs inverting depending on which side of the pitch the ball is on. At one time that was fairly revolutionary, but now Premier League teams have seen it all before – and now how to counter it effectively.

The balance in midfield looks to be all wrong, too. On paper Anderson and Fernandez are a dreamy combination, but in reality they are both more comfortable moving forward with the ball than they are in defending on the turn – the loss of Rodri harshly felt.

With Cherki also proving to be a magician in the attacking phase but ghost-like in defensive transitions, it leaves City with a major problem in the middle of the pitch when the ball is turned over – perhaps the experiment to reinvent Khusanov as a ‘number six’ will be revisited.

At the moment, Manchester City don’t look like title contenders. And if they don’t reach the 85-point mark, any slim hopes they have of avoiding relegation this term appear to be doomed.