England’s Chaos Theory Shut Down By Spain: Tactical Analysis

As Harry Kane prepared to take his penalty early in the second half against Spain, England were on the brink of going two goals ahead against the world champions.

They had weathered the early storm, in which the Spaniards broke through the lines with consummate ease, and begun to turn the tide in their own favour in front of a packed Wembley Stadium.

You wouldn’t get rich quick betting against Kane from the penalty spot. In fact, he hasn’t missed one since the World Cup of 2022. So you can probably guess the rest…

If the Bayern man had scored, England may well have gone on to win the game – and the emotions would have been rather different than those experienced in the wake of the eventual 2-3 defeat.

But the tactical analysis would have remained the same no matter what the result… this was Thomas Tuchel once again, for better or worse, showcasing his own version of footballing chaos theory.

England Fail the Press Test

There are certain attributes we associate with Spanish football: control of possession, allied to the players’ incredible technical ability, being chief among them.

But Luis de la Fuente is one of the first head coaches of the Spain national team to introduce them to the concept of the high press; as opposed to the low or mid-block that the side has traditionally used.

This is not an aggressive, all-out press by any means, but the trigger – typically a ball played by the opposition goalkeeper into one of their centre backs – will see a wave of red shirts close down the space afforded to the ball-side full back and the first receivers in the midfield pivot.

That can provoke the centre back to launch a long ball forward as their out ball, or – in the case of Marc Guehi on Saturday – it can lead to ‘over playing’; his uncertainty in possession enabling Lamine Yamal to steal in and notch a second minute opener.

Instant Replay

And then, in the second half, England were at it again.

Nico O’Reilly found himself hemmed in on the left-hand side. Both of his immediate out-balls to Elliot Anderson and Myles Lewis-Skelly were blocked off by Spanish players, as was Guehi.

Two more Spaniards pressed O’Reilly, either trying to win the ball directly or blocking a passing lane up the pitch. The Manchester City man, not schooled in the art of blasting the ball clear when pressured, tried to play a risky pass into Guehi.

That was intercepted by Dani Olmo, whose quick pass found Alex Baena free on the edge of the area. He, and Spain, gratefully accepted England’s gift.

This was a masterclass in press triggers from De la Fuente and his players. Effective pressing is not just about haring around the pitch at full pelt; it’s about clinically executing an organised heist of the ball in areas in which the opposition are most vulnerable.

England Embrace the Counter Raid

Plenty was spoken in the build-up to Saturday’s Nations League encounter about the notion of control.

Tuchel claimed that controlling games through possession of the ball was simply not in England’s footballing DNA, while Anthony Gordon – raised in the Premier League but now plying his trade in La Liga – was quick to agree with his head coach.

In some cultures, the idea of setting up to absorb pressure and counter-attack is akin to a crime against football, but you sense that England – depending upon the opposition, of course – are increasingly willing to embrace quick transitions under Tuchel.

The Three Lions’ first goal against Spain was the perfect case in point. Nico Williams had possession on the corner of England’s 18-yard box, with eight white shirts – plus goalkeeper James Trafford – all in defensive positions.

Fast Break

But when Williams slipped over, it triggered a rapid counter raid that progressed through sumptuous one touch passing: Anderson to Gordon to Bellingham. The Real Madrid man carried and fed the ball back to the onrushing Gordon, who slotted home.

Nine seconds passed from Anderson retrieving the ball to it being fired into the back of the Spain net. This was counter attacking play at its finest; from one end of the pitch to the other, with quick transitions, verticality and an innate understanding of what to do and where to be.

Maybe there’s a chance England will embrace fast breaks and rapid transitions after all. Control… who needs it!?

Of course, even chaos needs an element of control – otherwise, you just have disorder. Spain, unbeaten in 39 games now, offer Tuchel the clearest lesson on embracing possession of the ball against the best in the business.

Kane as an Old-School Number Nine

At the World Cup, and in the qualification games prior, it was clear that Tuchel was happy to embrace Kane’s whim of dropping deep in a bid to link up play and get more involved in the action.

In theory, that’s fine. But it places an onus on somebody else – be it Jude Bellingham in the number ten role or one of the wide players – to get beyond Kane and take on the role of line leader.

It worked, in a fashion, at the World Cup, with Bellingham and Kane dovetailing nicely, but against elite opposition it makes little to no sense to have one of the greatest goalscorers in your nation’s history dropping deep into traffic.

It’s worth remembering too that Kane is now 33, so his days of frolicking freely on the field are over… he simply doesn’t have the legs to catch up with counter attacking raids and be the finisher that England needs him to be.

Old Dog, Old Tricks

Kane’s heat map against the Spaniards suggests that Tuchel wants him to be an outlet for his team higher up the pitch.

By stretching the vertical distances, it also allows Bellingham to assume his natural role as a playmaker; taking up dangerous positions between the lines and orchestrating play. The 23-year-old’s performance improved significantly:

• Touches – 62
• Chances Created – 5
• Shots on Target – 2
• Assists – 1

Although somewhat lost in amongst his teammates’ defensive frailty, this was a classy, all-action performance from Bellingham; it’s he, not Kane, that should be England’s main source of creative output.

It was noteworthy too that Gordon and Bukayo Saka, for the most part, held their width. Both are very dangerous when isolated 1v1 against the opposition’s full back, so it was a clear tactical decision from Tuchel to enable them to do this – rather than making those penetrating diagonal runs to fill the space formerly left by the deep-lying Kane.

Mind you, that’s not to say that there isn’t still value in the latter idea. Indeed, England’s first goal came from Gordon’s pace and ability to run in behind.

Tactically, this was a fairly straightforward set-up from Tuchel, with his attacking players tasked with performing only their main duties – rather than having to wear more than one hat at a time. Against opposition weaker than the best in the world, it’s a philosophy that may well bear fruit.

The Stats Don’t Lie

The success of tactical concepts can, somewhat, be determined by the match statistics. Did we achieve what we set out to do?

The numbers from England vs Spain were illuminating:

• Total xG – England 1.74 v 3.12 Spain
• Non-Penalty xG – England 0.95 v 3.12 Spain
• Open Play xG – England 0.57 v 3.08 Spain

As we descend this ladder of chance creation, the revelation is that Spain played England off the park – no matter how close the game felt when watching it live.

Without Kane’s penalty and the occasional dangerous moment from set pieces, England lacked the final ball in attack; creating just 0.57 of open play xG. And that, combined with an inability to resist the press plus individual defensive errors, is a catastrophic combination.

And yet there were other stats that proved instructional:

• Possession – England 47% v 53% Spain
• Touches In Opposition Box – England 36 v 15 Spain
• Big Chances – England 3 v 6 Spain

This was not the ‘death by a thousand passes’ that Spain have metered out in the past. England had almost as much of the ball as the world champions and, in some respects, were more dangerous with it – having more than double the number of touches in the opposition’s box.

But that bottom bullet point is the most eye-catching. England racked up a catalogue of final third entries and ultimately created three big chances; generally enough to win any game of football.

Spain managed to create six big chances from just 15 entries into England’s penalty area, with an open play xG count that speaks to the ease with which they cut through the Three Lions defence.

On another day, Spain might have scored four or five… and no tactical discussion can paper over those cracks, from an England perspective.

I’ll leave you with some other statistics from the Three Lions’ last ten games:

• Clean Sheets – 3/10
• Goals Conceded – 14

We can analyse the tactics of Tuchel to the minutest degree. But these headline stats will ultimately prevent England from breaking through on the biggest stages until they are rectified.